Originally posted on The Score
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Many pre-playoff Conn Smythe candidates have been weeded out with the conference finals set to begin. Some interesting contenders remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs' final four, but - like the championship market - there's no clear favorite.
With no runaway scorer or generational goaltending performance, there's almost no chance this year's Conn Smythe winner doesn't come from the champion. So, let's look at where the value lies for each team and their odds to win the Cup.
The Rangers have five forwards within four points of each other. Artemi Panarin's (+2500) regular-season prowess has earned him enough respect to have the shortest odds of the group. Chris Kreider (+6000), who leads the league in power-play goals this postseason, is the value play. However, Igor Shesterkin's numbers (9.09 GSAx) compare to 2021 Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Shesterkin will have to continue that play for the underdog Rangers to win the Cup.
The drawback to backing Shesterkin (+450) is that his odds aren't far enough off from the Rangers' +350 odds to claim the title. That means you'd be taking on the risk that New York wins and one of its scorers steals the award in the next two rounds for minimal extra payout.
We steered clear from backing any Panthers before the playoffs. Here's how their top candidates' odds have changed with Florida the Eastern Conference Final favorite:
PLAYER BEFORE PLAYOFFS NOW Aleksander Barkov +2500 +700 Matthew Tkachuk +2000 +900 Sergei Bobrovsky +2000 +2500 Carter Verhaeghe +6000 +2500 Sam Reinhart +3000 +5000There's still plenty of value on your Panther of choice. Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk have a small points lead on their teammates, but Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe are capable of getting plenty of big tallies as they're first and third, respectively, on Florida in playoff shots on goal. Sergei Bobrovsky needs to pick up his play significantly to reach the statistical threshold of past winning goaltenders.
The question here will always be, "Can the Oilers win the Stanley Cup without Connor McDavid being their most valuable player?"
He's kept his teammates in contention with just two goals so far in the playoffs, but anyone watching Edmonton knows McDavid drives most of the team's offense with his playmaking and the attention he receives from the opposition. Unlike Shesterkin, McDavid's odds of +600 provide a considerable gap from his team's Stanley Cup odds of +280. He's worth another look as he'll have to up his production to upset the Stars and beat either Florida or New York.
Jake Oettinger is the favorite, but it's unlikely that a goalie with just a 3.05 GSAx through two rounds would be the main reason the Stars win the Stanley Cup. Dallas has eight forwards with six-plus points, but Miro Heiskanen is the standout candidate thanks to his team-leading 13 points.
Our pre-playoff bet on Heiskanen at 60-1 has aged nicely. His stellar play will get more attention as the lights shine brighter on the Stars.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 3 months ago
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