Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Next stop, Dallas.
Edmonton’s high-octane train rolls along to face its latest and most daunting challenge. Somehow, it’s already nine seasons into the McDavid Era. But it’s only the team’s second appearance in the Western Conference Finals since his franchise-altering draft day in 2015.
It’s no secret that the Oilers live and die by their superstars. As a team with limited scoring depth and inconsistent goaltending in a salary cap world, it’s become part of their identity. While it hasn’t proven a reliable formula in the past, the playoffs are about surviving. And Edmonton has survived.
The Oilers’ superstars, meanwhile, have thrived. Through two rounds and 12 post-season games, all of Leon Draisaitl (24 points), Zach Hyman (11 goals), Connor McDavid (19 assists), and Evan Bouchard (20 points) are on historically significant offensive trajectories these playoffs.
Of course, just half way through their Stanley Cup chase, there is much work left to do. We know it. They know it. Hunter, their kind-of-terrifying lynx mascot, knows it.
But in the moment, we’re placing these sizzling starts against the greatest playoff scoring runs. Using era adjusted playoff stats to offer a fair fight, we’ll compare the 2024 Oilers to the best hits of Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr, while celebrating all of the NHL’s special playoff performances since expansion. All aboard…
Note: All statistics are through two playoff rounds in 2024.
How We Got Here: vs. Kings (5/5/10 in 5 games); vs. Canucks (3/11/14 in 7 games)
Most Era Adjusted Points in the Cap Era: 1. Evgeni Malkin, 2009 (40 in 24 games); 2. Nikita Kucherov, 2021 (36 in 23 games); 3. Logan Couture, 2016 (35 in 24 games)
Era Adjusted Points Record: Mario Lemieux, 1991 (42 in 23 games)
2024 Playoff Performance: Draisaitl is a playoff weapon, his career production rising more than any modern forward. He’s been Edmonton’s most consistent threat, earning points in all 12 playoff games, averaging exactly two points per night in both series. His career era adjusted points per game (1.70) trails only Gretzky (1.89) and Lemieux (1.74) since expansion through age-28. The parallels to Malkin — whose 40 adjusted points in 2009 are #1 in the cap era — are striking. Each are statuesque, silky-mitted centers leveraging the shadow of the game’s best player to emerge from understudy to co-star each spring.
Chasing the Record: 2024 playoff scoring is at 5.9 goals per game through 12 of the NHL’s 15 series. This is just 2.5% short of the neutral 6.0 goals per game used in era adjusted scoring. This means that so far a player’s 2024 numbers haven’t required adjustment. Assuming scoring dips a little in the final three rounds, Draisaitl will need 17 points to reach Lemieux’s 1991 adjusted zenith of 42. Half of his points coming on the power play (6 goals, 6 assists) is a red flag, as penalties tend to fade into June. So, Draisaitl will require 5-on-5 scoring and continued team power play conversion (37.5%) to hunt Lemieux and Gretzky.
How We Got Here: vs. Kings (7/1/8 in 5 games); vs. Canucks (4/1/5 in 7 games)
Most Era Adjusted Goals in the Cap Era: 1. Daniel Alfredsson, 2007 (18 in 20 games); 2. Sidney Crosby, 2009 (17 in 24 games); 3. Logan Couture, 2019 (16 in 20 games)
Era Adjusted Goals Record: Reggie Leach, 1976 (20 in 16 games!)
2024 Playoff Performance: The Oilers’ relentless net-front presence continues to shine. He’s managed to surpass his shocking regular season pace (54 goals in 80 games), scoring 11 times in 12 games. Hyman’s total includes a four-game goalless drought vs. Vancouver, a rare lull that brought Edmonton’s season to the edge. Remarkably, Hyman entered the year with just 19 goals in 60 post-season contests, never scoring more than once in five first round exits in Toronto. But times are different now; he and McDavid the ultimate on-ice friends with benefits.
Chasing the Record: Hyman will need eight or nine goals, final adjustments pending, to tie Leach’s 1976 masterpiece. It remains the only Smythe-winning performance by a skater in a losing cause. Hyman hasn’t had to rely on the Oilers’ vaunted power play, seven of his 11 goals delivered at even strength. With the most shots in the playoffs (50) and a shooting percentage (22%) not out of whack with his regular season mark (18.6%), the 31-year-old is legitimately in range.
How We Got Here: vs. Kings (1/11/12 in 5 games); vs. Canucks (1/8/9 in 7 games)
Most Era Adjusted Assists in the Cap Era: 1. Nikita Kucherov, 2021 (27 in 23 games); 2. Nikita Kucherov, 2020 (26 in 25 games); 3. Leon Draisaitl, 2022 (25 in 16 games)
Era Adjusted Assists Record: Wayne Gretzky, 1987 (30 in 21 games)
2024 Playoff Performance: If you thought McDavid’s 100-assist regular season was a clinic in shoot-first artistry, he’s gone all in these playoffs. His 1.58 adjusted assists per game so far would be the best qualified rate ever. But when you’re the world’s greatest talent, nitpicking comes with the title. Curiously quiet for stretches vs. Vancouver, Game 5 was his worst outing in more than four years. The Oilers’ captain has scored just once at even-strength. In fact, he didn’t register an even-strength point in seven of 12 games, reaping his unparalleled playmaking damage in select outings.
Chasing the Record: With 19 assists in 12 games, only McDavid can seem ordinary at times and make such a significant impact. Like Draisaitl, he’s been here before too. In 2022’s run to the Western Conference final, McDavid dished an incredible 23 assists in 16 games. Does he have 10 or 11 assists in two series in him to catch Gretzky’s adjusted record? Of course he does. In fact, it would be pretty routine by his lofty standards. Yes, he’ll be facing better teams and goaltenders (sorry Cam Talbot and Arturs Silovs). But if the Oilers make the Final, this era adjusted record will be on notice.
How We Got Here: vs. Kings (1/8/9 in 5 games); vs. Canucks (4/7/11 in 7 games)
Most Era Adjusted Points in the Cap Era: 1. Cale Makar, 2022 (29 in 20 games); 2. Brent Burns, 2016 (27 in 24 games); 3. Miro Heiskanen, 2020 (25 in 27 games)
Era Adjusted Points Record: Brian Leetch, 1994 (38 in 23 games)
2024 Playoff Performance: It’s difficult to reconcile just how exceptional Bouchard has been this playoffs, as there is typically a public delay in reputation trailing elite performance. His rock steady series vs. Vancouver, featuring 11 points and a team-high four even-strength goals, create a strong case for the Conn Smythe. Paired with Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard is +10 and averages 24:19 per night — both playoff team-highs.
Chasing the Record: Bouchard is the first defenseman with 20 points through two rounds, so he’s off to a perfect start when it comes to record chasing. The thing with points by defensemen is they can be difficult to replicate. Power plays run hot and cold, points shots need some luck to become goals, and there’s some dependency on forwards to finish plays. But Bouchard is dishing and firing with swagger (40 shots) these days. He’ll need only six or seven points in Round 3 to slip into the top five since expansion, even if Leetch’s breathtaking 38 adjusted points seems daunting at #1.
As always, all eyes will be on Edmonton’s big guns.
All the ingredients are in place for intrigue… A star-studded roster. A hockey-mad market. A generational savior at the peak of his powers. Dynamic individual performances through two rounds. A former city of champions — 34 years removed from a Stanley Cup — salivating for a title.
To shatter any of the era adjusted total records, the Oilers will need to play Stanley Cup Final games. If they don’t advance, adding further individual achievements will offer little consolation.
Regardless the outcome, enjoy the wild ride of this high-voltage group with offense in its veins and Cup dreams on its mind.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com, NHL.com
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 5 months ago
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