Evan Bouchard is the crucial ‘third wheel’ in Oilers’ Stanley Cup mission

Two superstars at the peak of their collective powers. Season after season of dominance together. Zero playoff wins in the third round or later. Unable to get over the hump in the Western Conference.

Sounds like the Edmonton Oilers before Game 1 against the Dallas Stars, right? Actually, I was referring to the Colorado Avalanche.

Between 2017-18 and 2020-21, the Avs held the eighth-best points percentage in the NHL. Only four teams scored more goals over that span. They had a top-10 power play and top-five penalty kill. But even as Nathan MacKinnon exploded into superstardom and Mikko Rantanen grew into one of most underrated scorers of his generation, it took a third, all-world piece of the puzzle to finally vault Colorado to a championship.

Cale Makar was special the day the Colorado Avalanche drafted him in 2017. He was arguably the best non-NHL player in the world before he jumped right into the Stanley Cup playoffs to make his debut in 2018-19. In 2019-20, his first full NHL season, he was the best rookie defenseman since Brian Leetch. In 2021-22, at 23 years old, Makar delivered one of the greatest wire-to-wire seasons from a blueliner in modern NHL history. An 86-point regular season, which earned him his first Norris Trophy, was the appetizer to his Conn Smythe Trophy run. Makar racked up 29 points in 20 games that spring, logging more than 27 minutes a night. His 1.45 points per game that spring were the second-most in NHL playoff history among blueliners who played in 20 or more games.

The Avs that year had MacKinnon and Rantanen playing at peak levels, sure. They had second-line center Nazem Kadri’s career year. They got some incredible clutch moments from Artturi Lehkonen. But it was Makar’s ascension into demigod status that elevated them from a great team to the greatest team that season.

Can you see where I’m going with this one?

The Edmonton Oilers have the two greatest pure point-getters of this generation in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who have also managed to become unbelievably prolific playoff scorers. Yet, in nine seasons with that duo overlapping, they had yet to win a playoff Game in the third round or later until their double-overtime triumph in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final Thursday night. But it’s starting to feel like they have their version of the blueline gamebreaker in Evan Bouchard. No one is Cale Makar, to be clear, but Bouchard, coming into his own at 24, is reaching a higher ceiling than even the most optimistic scouts foresaw during his time with the London Knights.

The signs of the explosion appeared last year after Tyson Barrie, Edmonton’s right-shot power play quarterback, went to the Nashville Predators in the trade that brought Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton. Bouchard was roughly a point-per-game player after the trade and went off for 17 points in 12 playoff games. Just as Makar found a perfect rhythm alongside a trade acquisition in Devon Toews, Bouchard did the same this season on a dynamite pair with shutdown blueliner Ekholm. Bouchard didn’t end up a Norris finalist, but there’s a good chance he’ll end up fourth when the full vote is published. Full disclosure, he got my third-place vote. Not only was he the first Oiler blueliner since Paul Coffey to surpass a point per game in a season, but Bouchard was one of the better all-around defensemen in the game at both ends of the ice – regardless of whether McDavid was out there driving the play.

It’s possible Bouchard has levelled up even more this postseason. He’s the first defenseman in NHL history to reach 20 points in the first two rounds. He has already delivered three game-winning goals. He’s logging 24:52 per game. With Bouchard on the ice at 5-on-5, the Oilers have outscored opponents 20-8 and outchanced them 135-77. Without him on the ice: opponents outscore the Oilers 20-11 and outchance them 191-144. And don’t assume Bouchard is merely benefitting because he’s sharing the ice with all his elite teammates: he has the highest 5-on-5 goals-for percentage on the team at 71.43 percent. No one else is better than 66 percent. Bouchard was on the ice for all three Edmonton goals in Game 1 and none of Dallas’ goals.

Obviously, McDavid and Draisaitl need to be elite for the Oilers to break through and bring the first Stanley Cup to Canada since 1993. But Bouchard is rapidly becoming almost as important to the mission. He’s not the perfect player, as he can make the odd blunder with the puck – he had one yikes-grade turnover in Game 1 Thursday – but he has shown up repeatedly in the clutch this postseason.

MacKinnon and Rantanen had Makar. Stamkos and Kucherov had Hedman. Kane and Toews had Keith. Crosby and Malkin had Letang.

With Bouchard coming that crucial third wheel, does Edmonton have the horses to take down the Dallas Stars? In Game 1, they looked like a team that does – and that believes.

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