Western Conference Final betting: Conn Smythe value ahead of Game 4

The Stars, in their typical fashion, rallied after getting blitzed in the first period to win Game 3 in Edmonton, setting up what feels like a must-win Game 4 for the Oilers. The effort highlighted the value of individual players on both teams.

Game 4: Stars (+110) @ Oilers (-130)

The price for Game 3 was +110, and we bet on Dallas knowing that we were slightly outside of our pre-series parameters for backing the Stars in Edmonton. We'd play them again, knowing what we know about their ability to rally from slow starts and how well they play on the road.

There's a Stars-related inefficiency in the market, though, particularly in Conn Smythe Trophy betting. Dallas' odds of winning the Stanley Cup improved after winning Game 3, and Miro Heiskanen's Conn Smythe odds went from +1400 to just +750.

Jake Oettinger's odds moved to +250, making him the current Conn Smythe favorite. He's getting a lot of credit for the Stars' success, even though his analytics place him below netminders who have previously been named the playoff MVP.

But reviews of Heiskanen's play are also glowing. He went over 240 minutes without being on the ice for an opposing goal. Jason Robertson needed a hat trick to tie the Dallas defenseman in postseason goals and take a one-point lead over him in team scoring.

Heiskanen's empty-net goal wasn't crucial, but another tally helps make the Conn Smythe case for a player who's been dominant on both ends of the ice.

Best bet: Miro Heiskanen - Conn Smythe Trophy (+750)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Not many players consistently attempt a handful of shots in every playoff contest. That's what Kane brings to the table right now.

He's cleared this line in four of the past five games, only failing last time out because he missed the net on three of five attempts.

Kane's attempted at least five shots in six consecutive outings. For perspective, he recorded three-plus shots in 73% of his contests this season when attempting five or more. That success rate jumps to 79% when focusing on home games in which he reached that mark.

We saw a dip in Kane's usage against the Canucks, but his ice time against the Stars has gotten back to the levels we're used to seeing and then some. He's played 18 minutes or more in three straight appearances, giving him ample opportunity to generate shots - even against a stingy Stars defense.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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