Stars most to blame for Western Conference Final loss to Oilers

The Dallas Stars thought this might be their year to return to the Stanley Cup Final. The Stars lost in the finals to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 in the COVID-19 bubble but haven’t returned since then. The Stars were the favorite over the Oilers this season after getting the top seed in the West, but couldn’t overcome the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It was the second season in a row that the Stars lost in the sixth game of the Western Conference Final, losing to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights in 2023. The Stars ran out of steam after two difficult series wins to get to this point, but there are still some players to blame for the loss.

The Stars took a 2-1 series lead thanks to strong defensive play and disciplined hockey that kept the Oilers off the powerplay. They took an early 2-0 lead in Game 4, and it looked like the Oilers were on their way to being the subject of this article. However, the Oilers scored five unanswered goals in that game, setting the table for back-to-back victories in Games 5 and 6 to eliminate the Stars.

The Oilers had a near-perfect performance in Game 5, but they needed some luck and a stellar outing from Stuart Skinner in Game 6 to finish the job. The Stars took three times the shots and possessed the puck for 75% of the game, but the Oilers held on for the 2-1 victory. Let’s look at the Stars most to blame for this loss.

Jake Oettinger fails to outduel Stuart Skinner

The Stars were confident in many matchups going into the Western Conference Final. Chris Tanev had shut down Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel in their two previous series, making it likely he’d perform well against Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. The Stars also had better forward depth on paper, which failed them. The most confident matchup for the Stars had to be with the goaltenders. The Oilers pulled Skinner for two games in their previous series in favor of Calvin Pickard, who started the season in the AHL. The Oilers returned to Skinner but tried to temper their expectations for the young goaltender.

Oettinger started the series well with three straight games of sterling save percentages at .921, .966, and .933. The Oilers threw many shots at Oettinger, but he was up to the task to give the Stars a 2-1 series lead. He couldn’t keep it going, as he allowed nine goals on 64 shots over the final three games. You can look at the lack of scoring to help him, as the Stars had just four goals over those three games, but fans will have no choice but to look at Game 6 as a reason to blame Oettinger.

The only expectation you can have for a starting goaltender is that they outperform the goalie in the opposing net. Stuart Skinner was up to the task in Game 6, stopping 33 of 34 shots. However, Oettinger faced just ten shots, only stopping eight. The Stars will be okay with Oettinger, but his performance to close this series will leave a sour taste in some mouths.

Matt Duchene goes silent

The Stars hoped to lean on their outstanding depth to carry them to a Stanley Cup Championship. There were different times throughout the season when players like Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene were on the third line for this team. It would be hard for any team to match up with them if that continued. Duchene had a slow start to the postseason, but it looked like he may be coming around after finishing the Colorado series with a goal and two assists over the final four games.

Duchene’s production against the Oilers’ third line would be a factor for the Stars winning this series. However, there was no production for Nashville’s offseason buyout. The Duchene signing was a positive for the Stars all season, but when the chips were down, he vanished, recording zero points and a -2 rating over the six games. The Stars signed Duchene to a one-year prove-it deal, and it will be interesting to see if his poor play in this series will cause the Stars to move on in the offseason.

Joe Pavelski’s career may be coming to an end

It’s unfortunate to blame the 39-year-old, but Pavelski’s production during the regular season should have led to more success in the playoffs. The veteran had 67 points during the regular season, coming in as one of the top forwards for the Stars. However, his postseason production declined significantly, with just a goal and three assists. It hit rock bottom during the Western Conference Final, as he had zero points and a -4 rating.

Unfortunately, Pavelski’s career may end without a Stanley Cup championship. He was a part of many good teams in San Jose and now Dallas, but his squads always came up short. There’s no guarantee that Pavelski’s career is over, but the general feeling of the post-game interviews after Game 6 was that he wouldn’t be back.

The Stars will take this loss in the Western Conference Final as a team, but these three players seem like the most to blame.

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