Oilers’ X-factor vs. Panthers, and it isn’t Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers have made the Stanley Cup Final. They defeated the Dallas Stars in six games to play for hockey’s ultimate prize. In the Final, they meet up with the Florida Panthers. The Panthers are back in the Final after falling to the Vegas Golden Knights in five games last season.

The Oilers have finally made the Stanley Cup Final after years of falling just short. It certainly helps having the two best players in the world on your roster. McDavid is having a historic postseason in 2024. He has 31 points through 18 games. And he is merely six assists away from breaking the all-time single postseason record.

Beyond him is Leon Draisaitl. The German forward is also having a near-historic postseason. He has 10 goals and 28 points so far throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Defenseman Evan Bouchard made history with his offensive production before the Western Conference Finals.

Given all of this, one of these players would likely be one of Edmonton’s X-Factors, right? Not necessarily. There is one aspect of the Oilers’ game that is vital for their chances to win the Stanley Cup in 2024. This aspect is the team’s true X-Factor heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Special teams will make or break Oilers

Yes, Connor McDavid is part of the Oilers’ special teams. He is on their top power-play unit. It’s a power-play unit that has absolutely dominated so far in these Stanley Cup Playoffs. In fact, the Oilers have the highest power play percentage (37.3%) of all postseason teams in 2024.

Furthermore, the Oilers have scored more goals on the man advantage than the other teams. Their power play is absolutely lethal, and McDavid plays a big part of that. But he is not the only part of their lethal power play. Draisaitl and Bouchard also produce at high levels with the man advantage.

Furthermore, the power play is certainly not the only special teams unit pulling its weight in Edmonton. The Oilers have made the Stanley Cup Final in part thanks to an elite penalty kill. No team has a higher penalty-kill percentage than Edmonton. And Edmonton is nearly perfect when down a man. They have killed an otherworldly 94% of the penalties they’ve taken.

Edmonton has the advantage on special teams, and that will certainly come into play in the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers are the most undisciplined team in the postseason. They have racked up 207 penalty minutes so far this postseason. And they are likely to rack up much more throughout the Stanley Cup Final.

The Oilers are certainly susceptible to penalty issues themselves. They rank third among playoff teams with 171 penalty minutes. But they have shown more restraint on the ice and aren’t as physical as the Panthers. Still, special teams will play a big role in this series.

The Panthers get into penalty trouble but do well to get themselves out of it. Their postseason penalty kill percentage has improved from 70% in 2023 to 88% in 2024. However, the team’s power play isn’t as impressive. They have a 23.3% success rate with the man advantage. This is a slight improvement from 2023.

Overall, Edmonton is better on special teams. And because of this, they may not need to change things up too much. The Oilers can allow the Panthers to take penalties and make them pay on the power play. If Florida goes a man up, then Edmonton can send their otherworldly penalty kill onto the ice to keep the score the same.

Maintaining their form on special teams is vital for the Oilers in this series. Keeping this up could end with our first Canadian Stanley Cup champion since 1993. If their special teams falter, though, Connor McDavid and Edmonton will watch on as the Panthers celebrate their first championship.

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