Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Eight months and more than 2,700 NHL games have led us here, to the Stanley Cup Final. No other trophy exacts such a heavy toll on its suitors, and the quest for the Cup has broken plenty of hearts already.
Coach Peter Laviolette’s New York Rangers, seemingly a team of destiny, fell devastatingly short in the Eastern Conference Final.
Veteran Joe Pavelski missed his last chance at the big one after the Dallas Stars squandered a 2-1 series lead in their own Conference Final.
The teams that so ruthlessly dispatched Pavelski, Laviolette, and a host of other Cup hopefuls have one obstacle left to clear on the road to immortality: each other.
Representing the Eastern Conference are the Florida Panthers, the brash, irreverent outfit that steamrolled its half of the bracket with a combination of superstar talent and punishing physicality. Florida never looked like losing in the opening rounds before falling behind 2-1 to the top-seeded Rangers in the ECF. A Sam Reinhart overtime snipe reversed the momentum in Game 4, and the Panthers haven’t lost since.
Underdogs in last year’s defeat to the champion Vegas Golden Knights, this time around, it’s the Cats who play the villains. That’s just fine with Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett. Wisecracking coach Paul Maurice won’t mind the role, either, if it means the end of a 28-year wait to see his name etched onto the Stanley Cup.
While our staff tabbed Florida to win each of its series in earlier previews, the Edmonton Oilers weren’t always such a safe bet. Not when they fired coach Jay Woodcroft after a 3-9-1 start to the season, not when they twice faced elimination against the Vancouver Canucks, and not when the Dallas Stars blitzed them for five goals to take a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference Final. The Oilers took the West all the same, and the stiff challenges they faced taught them new ways to win.
A top-heavy attack spearheaded by the best player in the world is nothing new in Edmonton. The reason they’re just four wins away from a sixth banner is what they’re doing at the other end of the ice. Stuart Skinner went from being benched against the ‘Nucks to stopping 72 of 76 shots as the Oilers won three straight to eliminate Dallas. With the hometown hero playing well and a penalty kill that didn’t give up a single goal in Rounds 1 and 3, the Oilers don’t need to win every game 5-4. Is this the year Connor McDavid adds the one trophy that has eluded him during an already legendary career?
Florida: 2-0-0
Edmonton: 0-2-0
Florida and Edmonton last met nearly six months ago, when the Oilers were a game under .500 and the Panthers were still waiting on Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour to come back from offseason surgeries. In other words, they were very different teams.
The Cats routed Edmonton 5-1 in their initial meeting in November behind, oddly, multi-point performances from Niko Mikkola and Kevin Stenlund. The second game went marginally better for the Oil, who cut the deficit to 5-3 thanks to two McDavid goals. Carter Verhaeghe burned backup Cal Pickard (who started both games) and the Oilers for three goals and five points in the season series.
Florida
Matthew Tkachuk, 19 points
Carter Verhaeghe, 17 points
Aleksander Barkov, 17 points
Sam Reinhart, 12 points
Anton Lundell, 12 points
Edmonton
Connor McDavid, 31 points
Leon Draisaitl, 28 points
Evan Bouchard, 27 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 20 points
Zach Hyman, 18 points
The bionic efficiency of Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart on Florida’s top unit is remarkable. Two of the smartest players in the league, Barkov and Reinhart never seem to put a foot wrong at either end of the ice. It’s ironic, then, that teammates Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk tend to steal all the headlines come playoff time.
Specialists in almost crossing the line, Bennett and Tkachuk find themselves at the center of a commotion after just about every whistle. Their agitating tactics extend to open play, where they line up unsuspecting defensemen and recycle the puck until someone inevitably bludgeons it home.
After two-way utility forward Evan Rodrigues replaced Carter Verhaeghe opposite Tkachuk late in Game 3 against the Rangers, the trio’s forecheck became that much more overwhelming; they demolished the New York defense, outscoring them 3-1 and outchancing them 34-9 (!) at 5-on-5.
Edmonton’s top pair of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard (combined +22) haven’t rolled over for anyone this postseason, but when they aren’t on the ice, opponents have outscored the Oilers 25-13 at 5-on-5. Can Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak, and the rest of the revamped Edmonton defense stand up to the dogged pressure of the Bennett line? If they allow Florida’s second unit to set the tone, they’re in deep trouble.
On Florida’s top line, Barkov’s has been more noticeable (17 P in 17 GP) than in last year’s playoffs, when he took a backseat to Tkachuk on offense. 57-goal scorer Reinhart’s points total (8 G, 12 P) is a tick down from his regular-season pace on Barkov’s wing, but his blast to tie the Eastern Conference final was the Cats’ most important goal this season.
Verhaeghe (team-high 9 G) rounds out the group and is quietly one of the best clutch scorers in the NHL; his 23 playoff tallies since 2022 are the fifth most in the league. The 28-year-old sniper’s reintroduction to the Barkov line gives Maurice a dangerous do-it-all unit to match up with McDavid’s.
On the second line, Tkachuk unsurprisingly leads Florida in scoring (5 G, 19 P), but Bennett has sneakily added 6 goals and 10 points of his own in 12 games, including one particularly infamous tally. His growing confidence as a shooter (4 G in 6 GP vs. NYR) allowed Maurice to move Verhaeghe’s scoring punch up the lineup.
In the bottom six, Anton Lundell has been a revelation with 12 points, giving the Cats the depth they lacked in 2023. If once-great sniper Vladimir Tarasenko (3 G in 19 GP) can find his groove on a heavy line with Lundell and penalty killer Eetu Lustorainen, this team will become an even bigger handful.
For the Oilers, the main attraction on offense is a historically dominant power play that shook off a brief slump to convert on four out of five attempts over the final two games against the Stars. Bouchard (6 G, 27 P in 18 GP) has emerged as one of the game’s elite offensive defensemen. Zach Hyman (NHL best 14 G) is the Oilers’ best garbage man since Glenn Anderson was in town. Leon Draisaitl has arguably the most complete offensive repertoire in the NHL.
Then there’s McDavid, who has used his meteoric speed to embarrass the West’s two best penalty kills (L.A., Dallas) already this postseason. That Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his nine power-play points are so hopelessly lost in the mix shows how dangerous this unit is. Of the five men on the Oilers’ PP1, all but Hyman would lead the Panthers in points.
Edmonton found contributors up and down its lineup against Dallas, but their depth beyond a superstar top line of Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and Hyman still leaves something to be desired; there is a 10-point dropoff from Hyman to the Oilers’ sixth-leading scorer, Evander Kane.
With Warren Foegele scratched after a 20-goal regular season, there is pressure on Kane to step up after a scoreless WCF. His third-line center Adam Henrique was up to the task with three points in four games after returning from injury. If the veterans can develop some chemistry, it would go a long way toward balancing the Edmonton attack.
The Panthers were tied with the Winnipeg Jets as the stingiest team of the regular season, and, unlike the Jets, their defensive excellence has continued into the summer. They have allowed the fewest shots (24.47) and goals (2.29) per game of any team that advanced to the second round.
It starts up front, where Barkov has justified his second Selke win. The Panther captain controlled nearly 54% of expected goals against Nikita Kucherov and David Pastrnak and more than 66% against Mika Zibanejad. Stats like xGF% don’t account for the moments of brilliance McDavid is capable of, but Barkov and Reinhart should at least slow him down.
On the blueline, Gustav Forsling has made GM Bill Zito look like a genius for signing him to an 8-year extension. He’s +11 with 11 points in 17 playoff games. Forsling trails Brandon Montour for the team lead in average ice time, but his pairing with Aaron Ekblad has logged the toughest minutes; their 48 defensive zone starts are second only to Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell this postseason. Despite that, the duo has kept its head above water in scoring chances (57.43%) and expected goals (51.27%).
Montour (3 G, 9 P) and heavy-hitting, stay-at-home partner Niko Mikkola, who led the club in hits and blocks during the regular season, complete a strong top four, while veterans Dmitry Kulikov and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have done a nice job (53.85% of high-danger chances) on the third pair despite an unlucky combined -3.
The challenge for Florida will be staying out of the box. They were the most penalized team of the regular season, and though their PK has impressed (88.2%), they can ask the L.A. Kings how much that matters against McDavid, Draisaitl, and Co.
Across the ice, the Oilers’ defense has come into its own since the organization hired Kris Knoblauch as head coach. The Oilers were fifth in scoring defense after the coaching change and have allowed only 2.61 goals per game in the postseason. They completely disarmed the Dallas Stars in Games 4, 5, and 6. Defense used to be a chore for Edmonton. Now, it’s a priority.
That’s especially true on the kill, where Nugent-Hopkins, Ekholm, and the Oilers haven’t budged in their last 28 times out. The streak started way back in the second round, and the longer it goes, the more questions the opposition ask of themselves. If Edmonton can thwart the Florida power play on the road in Game 1, they might frustrate the Panthers into overthinking their own special teams.
The penalty kill has been stellar, but can Edmonton hold it together at 5-on-5? We’ve gone over the score without Bouchard and Ekholm on the ice, and the underlying numbers without the outstanding top pair aren’t much better. During ‘Boosh’ and Ekholm’s shifts, the Oilers control more than 57% of chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals. When they’re on the bench, Edmonton is below 43% in every category.
Many observers have singled out Darnell Nurse as an issue, but there’s still hope for the towering alternate captain. His possession numbers are bad, but they aren’t -13 bad. The 29-year-old’s PDO, which measures puck luck, suggests Nurse is the most snakebitten player to log at least 300 minutes this postseason. He needs that to change against a deep Florida attack, but there were encouraging signs after Knoblauch paired him with Kulak against Dallas.
To the surprise of none, both teams in the Stanley Cup Final are riding white-hot goalies. Even though he made that save against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, the Battle of Florida was a drag on Sergei Bobrovsky’s numbers. Since the start of Round 2, ole’ Bob has posted a 1.96 GAA and .914 SV%. It’s not the same level of dominance he displayed during a legendary 2023 postseason, but Bobrovsky’s reputation as a playoff choker is dead and gone.
Opposite Bobrovsky is Skinner, who looked set for a second-consecutive playoff collapse when he lost the crease to Pickard against the Vancouver Canucks. Knoblauch went back to Skinner for a pair of elimination games after the Oilers fell behind 3-2 in the series, and the 25-year-old hasn’t looked back. Since regaining the cage, the local product has gone 6-2 with a 1.81 GAA and .919 SV%. He’s not the athlete Bobrovsky is, but if he can continue to play big and cut angles, that might not matter.
Neither the Panthers nor the Oilers have any officially listed injuries going into the Final. Both teams are doubtlessly banged up after three playoff series, but Maurice and Knoblauch will draw from full decks to assemble their Game 1 lineups – probably. Kane sat for the third period of the clinching Game 6 against Dallas after throwing a hit earlier in the game and tweaking something. The Oilers have been mum on the injury, but he has said publicly that he’s playing with a sports hernia, for what it’s worth.
The Panthers must deal with the double-edged sword of being the first returning runner-up since 2009. On one hand, they’ve been here before, and the journey back has made them even more battle-tested. On the other, the prospect of once again falling short at the final hurdle is almost too much to bear.
A core leadership group of Barkov, Bobrovsky, and Tkachuk should keep this team locked in, but the sting of last year’s defeat still bothers them. With so many bargain contracts set to expire in just weeks, they won’t get a better chance to make things right.
Across the continent in Alberta, outside factors weigh heavily on the Oilers. The best player on the planet has no Cup in eight seasons, and with Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl due raises that will take up more than $20 million in cap space after next season, he’s running out of chances in Edmonton. Then there’s the Canadian drought, which no one in the locker room or the city cares about but will remain a narrative every year until it ends.
As if the Oilers aren’t under enough stress, Knoblauch gave the Panthers a doozy of a soundbite just yesterday. His Buffalo Bills dig wasn’t ill-intentioned, but the rookie head coach could learn the hard way not to fire up the opposition.
McDavid has dealt with scrutiny his entire career, and how he propped up Skinner and Nurse when they came under fire speaks to his growth as a leader. He’s still only human, and it will be tough to tune out the noise in the buildup to Game 1.
The Oilers have worked hard to prove they’re more than just a power play, but that might be the only advantage they have against the Panthers.
Is Stuart Skinner so hot that he’ll outduel the two-time Vezina winner Bobrovsky? Is Leon Draisaitl’s connection with forechecker Ryan McLeod and a 39-year-old Corey Perry enough to offset Tkachuk and the best second line in the NHL? The penalty kill is great, but Florida won’t lose its cutting edge like the Stars did.
Edmonton steals two games and maybe even a series lead, but the Panthers storm back to win the Stanley Cup on their third try.
Panthers in six.
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Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 5 months ago
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