Originally posted on The Score
The dust has settled on the first three rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are left standing.
There are plenty of heavyweights on both sides, but only one can be named postseason MVP. Here are our top five Conn Smythe Trophy contenders as we enter the final round of the postseason.
Bobrovsky has once again excelled as Florida's last line of defense this spring. He ranks third in GSAx among all goalies in these playoffs, trailing only Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin, who he and the Panthers outdueled en route to their second straight Stanley Cup Final appearance. Oh, and Bobrovsky also outshined 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner and two-time Stanley Cup champion Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round.
The 35-year-old veteran's toughest test awaits, though. The Cardiac Cats' ability to win the Cup will be contingent on Bobrovsky's ability to stop the Oilers' plethora of top dogs. Luckily for Florida, he's been able to deliver in clutch moments. The Panthers have won 17 one-goal games over the past two postseasons - including seven this spring - and the Russian has been in net for all of them.
It's that poise that could lead Bobrovsky to being crowned playoff MVP if Florida wins it all.
The first of three Oilers on this list, Draisaitl keeps on cementing his case as a bonafide Playoff Performer™. He's tied for second-most goals in these playoffs and has put up the second-most points, behind only the No. 1 player in these rankings.
Draisaitl has also taken over sixth place on Edmonton's all-time playoff goals list with 41 in a mere 67 contests, and his 0.61 goal-per-game rate is higher than three of the players above him in those history books.
What's keeping the German superstar outside of the top three in this exercise are his underlying numbers, which simply aren't as strong as those of his peers. Draisaitl may not be the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy right now, but we'd be silly to discount his ability to launch himself to the forefront of the conversation with an explosive final-round performance.
Bouchard has put the league on notice with his dominant performance through the first three rounds of these playoffs. He leads all rearguards and ranks third among all skaters with 27 points. And before you start filling up the comment section, no, Bouchard isn't just a "power-play merchant." Fifteen of his points have been at even strength.
The rearguard's underlying numbers have been outstanding as well, with Edmonton dictating 58.4% of the shot attempts and 60.8% of the scoring chances while outscoring opponents 25-11 with Bouchard on the ice at five-on-five. And before you start filling up our comment section again, no, this is not just the Connor McDavid effect. Bouchard spends a lot of his ice time with McDavid, but his possession stats are still strong when he's away from the superstar.
The Oilers are likely going to need a few Bouch bombs to beat the Panthers (he's already got three game-winners under his belt, tied for second most in the NHL). Depending on how many he gets, we could see more than a few Conn Smythe Trophy votes going Bouchard's way later this month.
Sure, Barkov's point total doesn't really jump off the page compared to the other skaters on this list. But the reigning Selke Trophy winner is high in these rankings because of his two-way play.
Behold, a list of star players who couldn't buy themselves an even-strength goal during their series against the Panthers this spring: Brad Marchand, Chris Kreider, Nikita Kucherov, Mika Zibanejad, and David Pastrnak. The Panthers are a wagon, but it's Barkov who is getting a ton of the tough assignments, and he's consistently able to tilt the ice in his team's favor. Florida has dictated 56.9% of the shot attempts, 62% of the scoring chances, and 57.6% of the high-danger chances while outshooting opponents 140-90 and outscoring them 9-8 with Barkov on the ice at five-on-five.
Like his teammate Bobrovsky, Barkov is about to face his hardest challenge. The captain will be tasked with limiting Draisaitl and McDavid, which is an absolute must for the Panthers' Cup aspirations.
At long last, McDavid is finally in the Stanley Cup Final. This is the biggest stage he's ever been on, and he'll be given the chance to truly cement his undeniable legacy as one of the best players the NHL has ever seen.
Now, what's he going to do about it?
McDavid has been doing McDavid things up until this point in the playoffs. He leads all skaters with 31 points in what is the second 30-point postseason of his career. Exactly half of his games this spring have been multi-point outings, and he's only been held off the scoresheet four times despite having to contend with opposing teams' top shutdown guys. If McDavid were to hit the 40-point mark, he'd become the third player to ever do so, joining Mario Lemieux (1991) and Wayne Gretzky (1985, 1988, 1993).
Of course, the Oilers are going to need their depth to step up against the Panthers, but McDavid must be at his full game-breaking potential to win it all. Make no mistake: If Edmonton brings the Stanley Cup north of the border for the first time in 31 years, it'll be McDavid who takes home the mantle as MVP.
Honorable mentions: Gustav Forsling, Zach Hyman, Stuart Skinner, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe.
xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
GSAA = Goals saved above average
(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 5 months ago
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