Can Oilers’ defence lead the team to a Stanley Cup win?

The Edmonton Oilers have a well-earned reputation as a dynamic offensive team. Their opponent in the Stanley Cup Final has morphed into arguably the best defensive team in the NHL over the past couple of years.

But for as good as the Florida Panthers are defensively, the Oilers have been just as stout in their own end in these playoffs.

Stuart Skinner’s poor start to the post-season and Darnell Nurse’s well-documented struggles have overshadowed the Oilers’ impressive defensive performance during their run. (It helps that the Oilers have often played from ahead in the playoffs, scoring first in 14 of their 18 games and leading after two periods 12 times.)

It is a continuation of the work started by Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff back in November, when Edmonton fired Jay Woodcroft after 10 losses in 13 games to open the season. Over the final five months of the regular season, the Oilers ranked sixth in the league in expected goals against per game.

The biggest improvement has come on the penalty kill, which was at 70 per cent under Woodcroft. Led by assistant coach Mark Stuart, who took over the unit following the coaching change, the Oilers have killed 28 consecutive penalties dating to Game 3 of the second round and are 46-for-49 (93.9 per cent) in the playoffs. (The Panthers’ penalty kill ranks second in the playoffs at 88.2 per cent.)

“We almost take their will with our kill,” Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm told reporters.

One area where the Panthers have the upper hand on the Oilers is their defensive depth. Florida has three consistent pairs, led by the formidable Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad, who have combined to shut down some of the top forwards in the league through three rounds. For example, the New York Rangers scored zero goals and generated 11 scoring chances at 5-on-5 in the 46:33 that Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad shared the ice with Forsling and Ekblad in the Eastern Conference final.

The other two pairs — Niko Mikkola/Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Dmitry Kulikov — have generated more than 50 per cent of the expected goals during their 5-on-5 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Oilers’ second and third pairs have struggled, regardless of configuration. Over the past three games, Edmonton has generated 24.6 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 with Nurse and Brett Kulak on the ice. Philip Broberg and Cody Ceci have a 48.5 xGF% at 5-on-5 over that span.

2024 Stanley Cup Final: Oilers vs. Panthers

Keep up with the latest news and analysis from the Stanley Cup Final as the Edmonton Oilers face the Florida Panthers and look to end Canada’s championship drought. All games can be watched on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.

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If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup for the first time in 34 years, a lot of credit will go to Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the team’s other offensive stars. But Edmonton’s team-wide commitment to defence should not go overlooked.

“I hope we’ve turned into a better defensive team because it’s a big part of making it far,” Ekholm told reporters last month. “If you look at the last couple teams that have made a run at it, they can play that stubborn defence. I think we’ve taken strides in it.”

All stats via Sportlogiq

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