Oilers’ fatal flaw that will doom them in 2024 Stanley Cup Final

It was a long road for the Oilers to advance to the Stanley Cup Final against the Florida Panthers. Edmonton sat in 31st place at one point, which led to the firing of Jay Woodcroft and the hiring of Kris Knoblauch as head coach. The Oilers were 46-18-5 after Knoblauch’s arrival, making them the best team in the NHL since that day. The Oilers took care of the Los Angeles Kings in the first round for the third straight season but needed to come up against the Vancouver Canucks in an All-Canadian matchup in the second round. It didn’t go smoothly for the Oilers, as they found themselves in a 3-2 hole heading back to Edmonton for Game 6. Stuart Skinner returned from being benched and won two consecutive games for the Oilers, sending them to the Western Conference Final.

The second trip to the WCF in the Connor McDavid era wouldn’t be easy. The Oilers fell to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion in 2022’s Final, and it was a possible outcome again facing the West’s top-seeded Dallas Stars. The Stars seemingly ran out of steam against the Oilers after taking a 2-1 series lead. The Oilers outscored the Stars 10-4 over the next three games, taking the series in six games. Edmonton’s offense is firing on all cylinders as they enter the Stanley Cup Final, which will give the Panthers a considerable test. The Panthers must stay out of the penalty box to keep the top-ranked powerplay off the board. The Oilers feel good about their team, but one fatal flaw could doom them in the Stanley Cup Final.

Was Stuart Skinner’s Western Conference Final performance sustainable?

Stuart Skinner was in a terrible spot in the middle of the Canucks series. The scapegoat was Skinner when the Oilers went down 2-1 after Game 3. Kris Knoblauch made his first bold move of the playoffs, starting Calvin Pickard in Game 4. Pickard performed well, stopping 19 of 21 shots to even the series at two. The effort gave him another opportunity to start in Game 5, but it didn’t go as well after he let in a soft goal with 33 seconds remaining to give the Canucks the 3-2 victory. With Knoblauch’s confidence in Pickard shaken, he returned to Skinner with the season on the line in Game 6. The Oilers’ defense shut down the Canucks, allowing just 32 shots over the two games to get the series win and settle Skinner back into his game.

Skinner has a 1.82 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage since that benching. He looks like the goalie that the Oilers trusted to get their season back on track, as he was one of the best goalies in the league since Knoblauch’s arrival. However, the Panthers have advanced through some of the best goaltenders in the league on the way to the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers beat Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, and Igor Shesterkin on their run through the East. Stuart Skinner has been good, but can you imagine him playing better than Shesterkin’s East Final performance?

Shesterkin had a .930 save percentage and a 2.25 goals-against average in the series. Is Skinner good enough to eclipse those numbers and defeat the Panthers? Skinner only needs to allow fewer goals than Sergei Bobrovsky, which is possible with the Oilers’ offense. However, some bad games from Skinner will end the Oilers run.

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