Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
It’s safe to say that the Edmonton Oilers didn’t exactly plan to be in this spot when they were preparing for their matchup against the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.
Through two games, the Oilers not only find themselves down 2-0, but they’ve also only managed to score one goal in this series. Game 1 was partially because of the play of Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, but in Game 2, they were properly shut down, creating almost nothing. Edmonton can blame Game 1 on bad luck, but all they needed to do was continue what they were doing in Game 2 and see better results, and they did the exact opposite and played right into Florida’s hands.
So, what have the Panthers done to stifle the Oilers thus far? And what does Edmonton need to do to bounce back and make this 2024 Cup Final a series again? Let’s dive in.
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way: Bobrovsky has played exceptionally well through two games. He’s stopped 97.82% of the shots that he’s faced, a +5.41% delta Fenwick save percentage, and he’s saved 4.09 goals above expected. That’s not quite at the levels that we saw during some stretches of the Panthers’ 2023 Stanley Cup Final run, but it’s still been more than good enough.
That said, Edmonton hasn’t quite been goalied the way you might think. Sure, they could have scored on some of the 2.74 expected goals that they created in Game 1 when they were shut out, but it’s not like that was the only reason the Panthers won that game. Florida had 1.63 expected goals themselves, were only out-chanced 24-18 and the high-danger scoring chances were only 13-6 for Edmonton. It’s still in the Oilers’ favor, and they were the better team in Game 1, but not to an overwhelming amount that implies that Bobrovsky was the sole reason that they won.
And then in Game 2, the Oilers just didn’t generate much of anything. They only had 0.49 expected goals, six scoring chances and not a single high-danger scoring chance in the game. That’s at all strengths too, so that includes their power play and the 4-on-4 goal that they actually scored in the game.
So Bobrovsky at least played a big role in the Oilers getting shut out in Game 1, but what shares the rest of the blame?
When it comes to shutting down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, you always hear the phrase “You cannot stop them, you can only hope to contain them”. Well, that’s exactly what the Panthers have done in this series so far.
As far as the underlying metrics go, it’s not exactly ideal. In 17:24 together, the Panthers’ top defensive center Aleksander Barkov has a 39.87% 5v5 expected goal share against McDavid, and their shutdown defenseman Gustav Forsling has a 49.6% 5v5 expected goal share against him in 23:37 together. But, the goals are 1-0 in favor of both players against McDavid. Going in, you would have been satisfied with keeping those minutes neutral in terms of goals, and instead the Panthers are winning it by a slight margin. The same thing goes with Matthew Tkachuk on their second line. In 11:43 against Draisaitl, Tkachuk only has a 42.17% 5v5 expected goal share, but the goals are an even 0-0.
Where both lines have succeeded is by limiting the chances from McDavid and Draisaitl themselves. Both players only have three scoring chances at even strength, and only two were high-danger. Otherwise, they’ve been stifled to a combined 0.95 5v5 expected goals between the two of them. If the two had only scored one actual goal at 5v5 in two games, Florida would be very happy with that result.
Beyond that top six, Florida’s third line has also found some success. Anton Lundell has mostly spent his ice time against the likes of Ryan McLeod and Evander Kane, with the Panthers outscoring the Oilers 1-0 in those minutes, and in the case of Lundell vs. McLeod, they’ve had a 57.91% 5v5 expected goal share.
The only advantage the Oilers have had is against the Panthers’ fourth line. With Kevin Stenlund, Steven Lorentz and Kyle Okposo on the ice, the Panthers only have a 17.15% 5v5 expected goal share, although the goals are still 0-0. That’s also primarily come against Adam Henrique, Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark, although Kris Knoblauch has gotten McDavid out for four minutes against them.
If the Oilers want to find success in Games 3 and 4 in terms of their matchups, they might have to use the last change that comes with home ice to get McDavid and Draisaitl out against the Panthers fourth line as much as possible because the alternative just isn’t working. The Panthers top six knows how to shut down the Oilers’ big boys, and while they aren’t overwhelming Edmonton’s bottom six, they don’t need to with McDavid and Draisaitl off the board.
Part of the reason why the Panthers have done well to shut down McDavid and Draisaitl particularly is that they’ve found the right strategy to work with them. Colby Cohen went into detail about how the Panthers have applied more of a layered defensive system to counter the Oilers’ top stars a couple days ago, basically pointing out that they’re committed to having multiple players in between the puck and the net, and utilizing their sticks to get in the way as well.
McDavid 😮💨🔥 pic.twitter.com/X4HDqVoNg5
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) June 11, 2024
Take this clip of how the Panthers defend McDavid in this instance as an example. No one can utilize speed and puck-handling together like McDavid, and odds are he’s going to embarrass you with some moves at some point. So how do you counter that? Make sure that the second he beats one player, there’s another ready to keep up with him. It looks like the equivalent of Usain Bolt running a 400 metre race, while four other runners are doing a 4 x 100 metre relay race to keep up with him in hopes that endurance will eventually give them the advantage.
It really is impressive how the team as a whole has committed to constantly switching coverage the second they need to, and seamlessly transitioning takeovers as to who is covering McDavid. And for the most part, that hasn’t stretched the bandwidth of the team’s defense to give too many chances to opponents. However, that is the main reason why they Oilers had plenty of chances in Game 1, because Florida basically gave four of Edmonton’s players slightly easier access to chances at the expense of a heavier focus on McDavid and Draisaitl. Even then, they’re still covering most of the prime chances (refer to the clip again to see how Dmitry Kulikov kept Zach Hyman off McDavid’s pass in front of the net where he’s reigned terror all season).
The Oilers’ special teams play was a big talking point going into the Stanley Cup Final, and their daunting power play always gets a lot of attention. It’s easy to see why when McDavid and Draisaitl feast on opponents for many years, and it has only gotten all the more dynamic with Hyman as the net front presence and Evan Bouchard roaming the blueline. But Florida wasn’t too far off. They were sixth in power play conversion and second only to the Oilers in PP expected goals for per 60 minutes. Both teams also have had really strong penalty killing units, though, so it wasn’t going to be easy for either team to score with the man advantage, and that’s shown with just one power play goal total in the first two games.
Of course, that one power play goal was from the Panthers, so naturally another issue with the Oilers scoring problems is that they haven’t converted on the power play yet. In Game 1, they got their fair share of chances with 0.94 expected goals on the power play, but much like their even strength play in Game 2, they generated almost nothing, finishing with only 0.17 expected goals on the man advantage.
If it’s any consolation for Edmonton, Florida saw the roles reversed in those two games, with only 0.11 expected goals for in Game 1, but 1.19 in Game 2, which means that they’ve been going toe-to-toe in terms of chances with Florida. But the process can only get you so far in the playoffs, and they need their top dogs to convert on the chances they get on the power play if they want this to be a series again.
Let’s get the low-hanging fruit here: Barkov’s status after taking Draisaitl’s elbow to his face in Game 2 is a big factor in these upcoming games. The Panthers certainly have the depth to at least run a strong top nine forward group without Barkov, but he’s been a huge key to making McDavid look human so far, and without him, things are already much easier for Edmonton in this Cup Final.
Assuming that Barkov is healthy, the Oilers really need to take advantage of last change on home ice and try and keep McDavid and Draisaitl away from Barkov. Maybe not to the extent of putting them on the same line, but maybe you try to throw Henrique’s line to the wolves in hopes that they can come out of that matchup even and give McDavid and Draisaitl more minutes against the Panthers’ bottom six. That can only be done to a certain extent considering how little ice time the bottom six gets in comparison to the top six, especially at this stage of the playoffs, but try and get away from Barkov when you can and you might be able to get your chances there.
Other than that, the important thing is to not get discouraged about being shut out in Game 1, because outside of Bobrovsky’s performance, the Oilers did everything they needed to in order to win the game, both at 5v5 and on the power play. They went away from that in Game 2 and made it even easier for Florida to win, but if they can get back to generating those chances, the wins should hopefully come their way.
And who knows, the Panthers got to Edmonton late due to weather delays, so maybe that’s the kind of miracle the Oilers needed to change the momentum of this series.
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
Recently by Scott MaxwellOriginally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 3 months ago
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