Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
It’s difficult to fully appreciate extraordinary achievement when it happens nightly in front of us.
Unlike the awe-inspiring rush of the Paris 2024 Olympics, hockey careers play out slowly over a decade or two. There are no 10-second sprints or individual programs that captivate the world in a blink of an eye.
We’ve been privileged to watch a trio of sublime talents produce offense at rates rarely seen in 107 years of NHL action. Auston Matthews. Connor McDavid. Cale Makar. In the marathon of an NHL career, all three phenoms are still relatively early in the race to hockey immortality. Yet, in their mid-20s, each is likely at or near the peak of their powers.
Today, we’re putting their impressive bodies of work against everyone in league history. How do their fast starts compare to the best of generations past? Where might they be headed next? With the fleeting glow of the Olympic flame a reminder, it’s a great day to appreciate what we’re witnessing — before it’s too late.
Last 5 Seasons (NHL rank in goals per game): 1st, 13th, 1st, 1st, 4th
What Have We Been Witnessing?: Through age 26 — adjusted for era to create a level playing field across generations — no one has ever scored goals at a better rate than Matthews.
Yes, with proper context, that’s how great Matthews’ career goal scoring has been. And sure, the margin is less than one goal per 82 games on both Gretzky and Ovechkin. But relative to his own time, #34 in blue and white has been the top per-game sniper through his first eight NHL seasons.
2023-24 Season: He just completed a 69-goal year — the most since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Matthews was born in 1997. So, he scored the most goals in a season in his own lifetime. Remarkably, he was a 50-goal scorer at even-strength alone (51-18 in even strength vs. power play goals). A first-time Selke finalist, the distinction is supported both by advanced measures and the eye test. He’s irrefutably one of — if not the — most well-rounded players in the NHL.
Adjusted Leaderboard: At 26, Matthews has played just 562 NHL games. Yet, by Christmas, he should pass another seven Hall of Famers in era adjusted goals: Lindros (404), Darryl Sittler (409), Yvan Cournoyer (410), Lanny McDonald (412), Doug Gilmour (414), Pat LaFontaine (414), and Glenn Anderson (415).
Another 50-goal season and he’ll leap past Bryan Trottier (428), Joe Mullen (432), Gilbert Perreault (434), Dale Hawerchuk (435), Daniel Sedin (442), Michel Goulet (443), Martin St. Louis (445), and Kariya (445).
Stunning. Again, for those in the back row, Matthews is 26 years old.
Projection: Earlier this year, he was forecasted for an astronomical 784 goals. Keeping pace with Ovechkin — who led the NHL in goals seven times in eight seasons from age 27 to 34 — will be an extremely difficult task. And the cautionary tales of Lemieux, Bossy, Lindros, Kariya, and Bure from the leaderboard above show how fragile hockey careers can be. But if he remains healthy, there’s little reason to think Matthews can’t chase the top handful of goal scorers on record.
Last 5 Seasons (NHL rank in points per game): 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd
What Have We Been Witnessing?: Through age 27 — adjusted for era — McDavid is second to Gretzky in points and trails only Gretzky and Lemieux in terms of rate.
If it’s felt like McDavid has banked points at a level few others have, it’s because it’s true. He’s currently third all-time in career points-per-game. But per-game leaderboards naturally favor active players yet to have a decline phase. The above chart — rightsized by age, era, and rate — shows he’s legitimately #3 as a scorer.
2023-24 Season: After an uninspired October, some lingering injuries, a 10-game goalless drought, and one of the largest year-to-year goal drops ever (from 64 to 32), you’d be forgiven to think McDavid had a down season. Yet, despite missing six games, he was in the Art Ross Trophy race most of the year, authored the first 100-assist season in decades, and was an MVP finalist. His defensive impact, meanwhile, continued to creep into the upper third of the league.
Adjusted Leaderboard: McDavid has missed only 19 games in his last eight seasons. He’s managed his prime years unscathed, something that most of the prodigious age-27 list above failed to do… Lemieux. Crosby. Lindros. Forsberg. Malkin. Orr. That places him with only Gretzky, Jagr, and Ovechkin playing their peak years without major injuries.
By pairing durability with generational ability, the Oilers‘ captain has a tremendous opportunity to decimate hallowed career marks. Adjusted to era, he’s already 81 points ahead of Lemieux at the same age. And 106 points clear of Crosby. Rarified air.
Another 130 adjusted points this year? McDavid would tie Jari Kurri (1,185) and pass 40 names on the leaderboard, including Guy Lafleur(!) and both Sedins. Everyone he’d pass played at least 15 NHL seasons — McDavid is entering his 10th.
Projection: McDavid projected to 1,923 career points in our March article, which gives him a 50/50 probability at second all-time. Now, he still has to play hundreds of games and play them well. But at 27 and having avoided injuries, McDavid’s looking up only at Gretzky in terms of potential output.
Last 5 Seasons (NHL rank in points per game by defensemen): 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd
What Have We Been Witnessing?: Through age 25 — adjusted for era — Makar is second only to Orr in terms of points-per-game by a defenseman.
In this case, additional context is necessary. By debuting in his age-21 season after two college years, Makar’s rate is aided by not having an 18, 19, or 20-year-old season. The late start is why Makar is only tied for ninth (with Hughes, still 24, who will pass him this year) in total adjusted points. Given he arrived and won the Calder, Makar’s pace would undoubtedly still rank high on this list with an earlier rookie season.
2023-24 Season: Makar missed fives games and never quite seemed to maintain his peerless, two-way beast mode last season. The result? A career-high 90 points, a fourth consecutive Norris finalist nod, and 15 points in 11 playoff games. Must be nice. On a thinner Avs team, Makar’s defensive metrics did take a step backward while rival Hughes ran away with the Norris. If the underwhelming version is a consensus top-three player at the position, a resurgent Makar is a scary thought.
Adjusted Leaderboard: After only five seasons, Makar has already blown by many contemporaries in adjusted points that debuted before him: Miro Heiskanen, Mikhail Sergachev, Thomas Chabot, Darnell Nurse, Charlie McAvoy, Zach Werenski, Josh Morrissey, Shea Theodore, Mattias Ekholm.
At the same age, Roman Josi — one of the salary cap era’s offensive standouts — was already 130 adjusted points behind Makar. A modest 80 adjusted point season will bring Makar to 437 and by age 26, he’ll have passed eight more Hall of Fame blueliners, including Serge Savard (396).
Projection: Career projections had Makar at 958 points forecasted — a real shot to join only eight defensemen with 1,000. That’s after what was an unusually late career start for a fourth overall draft pick. And by missing 22 games in 2022-23, the projection bakes in Makar’s propensity to miss just enough games to mess with his output. If he can stay in the lineup consistently, seeing him emerge as the best defenseman since Nicklas Lidstrom is not far-fetched. There’s few limits to his game.
Instead of celebrating all-world performances, the public conversation often drifts to what an athlete hasn’t done. Applying individual blame for team defects. Nitpicking the best and the brightest. Criticizing a market value contract. These are often the blinders masking the magical displays we’re witnessing.
The respective starts of Matthews, McDavid, Makar are unparalleled among the current generation. In fact, they have few equals in any generation. Staying both healthy and at the top of a league overflowing with global talent is no given. Let’s channel the Olympic vibes and respect some of the best to ever do it while they’re right in front of our faces.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com, QuantHockey.com
Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 4 months ago
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