Projecting contracts for top remaining RFAs

Most NHL training camps begin in less than a month, but several high-profile restricted free agents still need new contracts.

Before we get ahead of ourselves: No, the teams with these top RFAs aren't overly susceptible to offer sheets, as the Edmonton Oilers were with Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. Each of these clubs have enough flexibility to match any sort of realistic offer sheet.

But what types of contracts will these RFAs receive? Below, we take our best guesses.

Seth Jarvis, Hurricanes

Age: 22
Position: RW
Projection: 3 years, $6M AAV 💰

Jarvis is coming off a breakout season in which he tallied 33 goals and 34 assists in 81 games. He scored more times in 2023-24 than he did in his first two campaigns combined (31 in 150 games). The 2020 No. 13 pick displayed great versatility, too, proving to be effective on scoring and checking lines. He led all Hurricanes forwards in power-play minutes and ranked second in penalty-kill minutes.

As a key part of Carolina's present and future, the Hurricanes would likely prefer to lock up Jarvis for as long as they can. They may not have the ability to do so, though, which is why we're predicting a bridge deal. This projected contract would make Jarvis an RFA after its completion, giving the Hurricanes a chance to sign him long term in 2027 before he can become an unrestricted free agent in 2028.

The Canes have $6.44 million in cap space, which wouldn't be enough to get Jarvis signed for seven or eight years. On a max-term contract, Jarvis deserves at least the $7.75-million average annual value that teammate Andrei Svechnikov received on his eight-year deal signed in 2021 - maybe more with inflation. While Svechnikov was a higher pick and more established at the time of his contract than Jarvis is now, the latter had a superior contract year.

Carolina could have more cap space at its disposal if Jesper Fast ($2.4-million AAV) begins 2024-25 on long-term injured reserve after suffering a season-ending neck injury in April, but his status is unclear at this point.

Lucas Raymond, Red Wings

Age: 22
Position: LW
Projection: 8 years, $8M AAV 💰

The Red Wings might've gotten a bargain out of Raymond had they signed him to an extension before he exploded for a career-high 31 goals and 41 assists in 82 games in 2023-24. If nothing materialized because Raymond wasn't interested in signing before the season, it turned out to be a wise move on his part.

As the No. 4 pick in 2020, this type of top-line production was expected of Raymond, and he delivered. His season was boosted slightly by a robust 19% shooting percentage, though.

Still, Raymond is undoubtedly one of the Red Wings' core players. With plenty of current cap space, and more money opening up over the next few years, getting Raymond signed to a long-term deal should be a top priority. This cap hit may seem a bit steep in the short term, but it could age well as the cap rises and Raymond continues to blossom through his prime.

The cap hit comes in slightly above those of long-term pacts signed this offseason for young forwards Juraj Slafkovsky ($7.6-million AAV) and Matty Beniers ($7.14-million AAV), but less than an older, more established winger like Travis Konecny ($8.75-million AAV).

Moritz Seider, Red Wings

Age: 23
Position: RD
Projection: 8 years, $8.5M AAV 💰

While it'd be fitting for the Red Wings to announce identical long-term extensions for Seider and Raymond, that may not be in the cards. Seider's camp can point to long-term extensions signed within the past year for comparable defensemen Jake Sanderson ($8.05-million AAV) and Owen Power ($8.35 million) to make a case that he deserves more.

Seider has been a true workhorse in his three-year career, averaging 22:51 per contest while never missing a game. He won the Calder Trophy in 2021-22 with 50 points and has since rattled off back-to-back 42-point campaigns. Neither Sanderson nor Power have produced a single 40-point season.

However, Seider has endured some struggles in his own zone the last two seasons, notably posting minus-9.4 defensive goals above replacement in 2023-24, the worst mark among NHL defensemen.

Nonetheless, 6-foot-3, right-shooting defensemen who are highly physical, mobile, and productive tend to get paid in the NHL. Seider, who was drafted sixth overall in 2019, should be no different despite the underlying concerns.

Thomas Harley, Stars

Age: 23
Position: LD
Projection: 6 years, $6M AAV 💰

A long-term extension is mutually beneficial for Harley and Dallas. The Stars have money opening up after 2023-24 and would surely love to lock up one of their blue-line pillars. Harley, meanwhile, is coming off a 15-goal, 47-point season that was partly buoyed by an unsustainable 10.4% shooting percentage - he'd be wise to strike while the iron is hot.

But with only $6.2 million in cap space for this season, the price for a seven- or eight-year contract is likely out of reach, hence why we settled on six.

This contract would come in slightly above the six-year extension with a $5.55-million AAV that the Montreal Canadiens gave blue-liner Kaiden Guhle this offseason. While Guhle is the better defensive player and has two seasons of being a top-four defenseman under his belt compared to Harley's one, Harley deserves a bit more money due to his superior offensive play in 2023-24.

Harley, a smooth skater at 6-foot-3, could cash in again at age 29 when this contract expires.

Jeremy Swayman, Bruins

Age: 25
Position: G
Projection: 5 years, $6.5M AAV 💰

Swayman is arguably the most interesting case of all five players on this list. He relinquished his arbitration rights this offseason after vowing to never go through the process again like he did last summer.

Like the other four players on this list, the only leverage he has now is holding out. But as the team's clear No. 1 goalie for this coming season, the Bruins would be wise to get him signed as soon as possible.

Swayman has posted at least a .914 save percentage or better in each of the last three seasons as part of a near 50-50 tandem with Linus Ullmark. He appeared in as few as 37 games during that span and as many as 44. In 2024-25, though, he's expected to take on a larger workload.

Boston traded Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators in the offseason in a deal that brought back Swayman's new backup, Joonas Korpisalo. Swayman had already established himself as the guy in Boston, starting 12 of the team's 13 playoff games in the spring while posting a sparkling .933 save percentage.

Swayman's strong numbers are often chalked up as merely a product of playing behind a perennially strong defensive team, but his underlying numbers disprove that theory. He finished 10th among NHL goaltenders with 20.99 goals saved above expected in 2022-23 and fifth with 22.79 GSAx in 2023-24.

While the Bruins have enough cap space ($8.64 million) to sign Swayman for longer, this projected five-year contract seems to be the happy medium. Boston gets its goalie signed through his prime and buys three UFA years, and Swayman gets some security and a chance to cash in again as a UFA at age 30.

This deal would also make Swayman the NHL's fifth-highest paid active goalie for the 2024-25 campaign, above John Gibson's $6.4-million AAV but below Ilya Sorokin's $8.25-million AAV.

(Cap source: PuckPedia)
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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