2 Stars in danger of regression in 2024-25 season

The Dallas Stars came within two games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. The Stars eliminated the Vegas Golden Knights before taking out the Colorado Avalanche in round two. In the West Final, though, they could not overcome the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton’s historic offensive onslaught was too much for the defensive machine Dallas iced.

The summer saw the Stars lose some of that defensive identity, though. Chris Tanev was an important piece to the Dallas defensive structure that helped them go on a deep playoff run. However, Dallas traded Tanev to the Toronto Maple Leafs after failing to sign him to a new contract.

The Stars are gearing up for a deep playoff run despite their offseason losses. In saying this, there are players on the roster who make take an individual step back in 2024-25. Here are two members of the Stars roster who are regression candidates for the campaign ahead.

Matt Duchene is a regression candidate

The Stars initially signed Matt Duchene last summer after he was bought out by the Nashville Predators. Duchene looked the part of a potential gem in NHL Free Agency. And for the one-year, $3 million contract term, it certainly seemed as if he could vastly outplay that deal in 2023-24.

As expected, Duchene did just that. The former first-overall pick scored 25 goals and 60 points during the 2023-24 campaign. His 65 points were good for a three-way tie with Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz for third-most among Stars skaters.

Duchene finished this past season with the third-highest Offensive Goals Above Replacement (11.5) among Stars players, according to Evolving Hockey. Only Hintz and Jason Robertson had a higher OGAR than Duchene this past year. Finally, Duchene’s 60.35 Goals For Percentage was second among Stars forwards behind Mason Marchment.

Dallas signed Duchene to another one-year contract this offseason to keep him in the fold. Interestingly enough, this new contract is the same one-year, $3 million deal he signed last summer. On the surface, it seems as if Duchene is in line to outplay his contract once again.

However, that may not be the case. Duchene did have 11.5 OGAR in 2023-24. In saying this, his xOGAR was just 8.3 this past season. His xWAR, meanwhile, was less than 1.0. His GF% came second to Marchment this past year. But his xGF% (51.23) ranked dead last among forwards on the team.

Duchene is certainly a talented hockey player. This is not to say that he isn’t a quality member of the Stars roster. In saying this, though, expectations may be best tempered a bit. The possibility for regression in the year ahead is certainly a realistic one.

Mason Marchment may take a step back

Mason Marchment struggled early in his Stars career. He signed a big five-year contract with Dallas back in the summer of 2022. And it seemed as if this contract would age like milk after an incredibly disappointing 2022-23 campaign.

In 2023-24, the Stars forward put an incredible foot forward and put up points. He scored 22 goals and 53 points while playing in 81 games this past season. Both totals represent career highs for the 29-year-old Uxbridge, Ontario native.

As mentioned, Marchment led all Stars forwards in GF% at 61.56%, according to Evolving Hockey. Additionally, his 8 Offensive Goals Above Replacement represent a major bounceback from his 2022-23 OGAR (-0.6). However, there is something to suggest that he could see a decline in production a year from now.

Marchment leads all Stars forwards in GF%, but he vastly outplayed his expected total. The Dallas forward had an xGF% of 52.16% in 2023-24. In fact, only Matt Duchene and Evgeny Dadonov had a lower xGF% this past season.

Marchment had a great 2023-24 campaign. And he certainly could build upon this performance in the year ahead. However, he remains a prime regression candidate for the Stars as the 2024-25 campaign draws closer.

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