Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
The 2023-24 season was about as much of a roller coaster as a season could have been for the Edmonton Oilers. To start the year, just about everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. They opened the season with an 8-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. Edmonton couldn’t buy a save for more than a month. Connor McDavid got hurt, and then when he returned, he was a mere mortal. Come early November, and the Oilers had hit their lowest point of the season, losing 3-2 to the San Jose Sharks, sinking to 31st in the league with a 2-9-1 record, and the writing was now on the wall for head coach Jay Woodcroft.
It took one more game for the Oilers to move on from Woodcroft, but in came Kris Knoblauch, and suddenly everything changed. Edmonton went 2-3-0 to start, but then followed it up with a stretch where they won 24 of 27 games. Not only did it put them back in the playoff hunt, they had easily recovered and were safely in a playoff spot for the final stretch of the season. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were back to normal, Zach Hyman scored 54 goals, Evan Bouchard put up 82 points on the blueline, and with the additions of Corey Perry, Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick around the deadline, the Oilers were ready to compete for a Cup.
After making quick work of their usual first round opponent, the Los Angeles Kings, in Round 1, the Oilers had an all-Canadian matchup in the second round against the Canucks, and were nearly pushed to the brink before taking Games 6 and 7. Edmonton had another rough start in the third round against the Dallas Stars, but won the last three games to secure their first Stanley Cup Final berth in 18 years.
The bad starts continued in the Final, as the Oilers went down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers before stringing together three wins themselves and forcing Game 7, giving Edmonton the opportunity to become the fifth team in NHL history to pull off the reverse sweep. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, as after trading goals in the first period, Sam Reinhart’s second period goal held as the game-winner in the Panthers’ 2-1 win to secure their first Stanley Cup, and keep the Oilers – and Canada – without a championship for another year.
The bar has now been set for the Oilers, and with their three best players in McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard all up for new contracts over the next two years, the time to win is now before another cap crunch comes. Can Edmonton find their way back to the Stanley Cup Final again during this window, or did we witness McDavid, Draisaitl and company’s only chance at a Cup last spring?
Jeff Skinner, LW
Viktor Arvidsson, RW
Ty Emberson, D
Matthew Savoie, C
Vasily Podkolzin, RW
Josh Brown, D
Collin Delia, G
Ryan McLeod, C (Buf)
Warren Foegele, LW (LA)
Cody Ceci, D (SJ)
Jack Campbell, G (Det)
Vincent Desharnais, D (Van)
Philip Broberg, D (Stl)
Dylan Holloway, LW (Stl)
Sam Carrick, C (NYR)
It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, but the Oilers had one of the best offenses in the league last season. They ranked fourth in goals per game (3.56), third in 5v5 shot attempts for per 60 minutes (65.24), and first in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 (3.35, the only team to finish with more than 3), all backed by the fourth-best power play (26.3%). And in case you needed proof that their early results were due to bad luck, their goals for per game improved to second with 3.73 and their power play improved to second at 27% after those first 12 games.
Look no further at what makes the Oilers’ offense dominate than the five players right at the top. McDavid somehow continues to get better and show the hockey world why he’s the best player in the league, Draisaitl is one of the next-best options to have to play next to him, Bouchard has emerged as one of the best defensemen in the league, and then Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also act as elite complementary pieces to that trio. The five of them generate a lot of the offense, and while they do get some contributions elsewhere from players like Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane and Darnell Nurse, the big five are generally the ones driving the bus at even strength and on the power play.
While a few supporting offensive pieces like Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway have moved on, the Oilers did bring in a couple of significant upgrades that they’ll hope to round out their top six. Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson signed relatively reasonable contracts and now give Edmonton two wingers that actually belong in their top six and will be the perfect additions to the four forwards already dominating in that top six. It’s never guaranteed, as the Oilers saw last year when they signed Connor Brown in hopes that he would also be that, but at least Arvidsson and Skinner actually played last season. Add in a full season from Adam Henrique, a potential bounce-back season from Brown, and a couple of young options that could make an impact like Vasily Podkolzin or Matthew Savoie, and the Oilers offense looks even deadlier this season.
The Oilers have a reputation as an offensive team, but they weren’t slouches defensively either, especially when you consider the poor start to the season that they had. They were 10th in goals against per game (2.88), third in 5v5 shot attempts against per 60 (52.3) and ninth in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (2.47), although their penalty kill wasn’t nearly as successful, ranking 21st in the league (79.5%). Much like their offensive numbers, their goals against per game (fifth with 2.66) and penalty kill (tied for seventh at 81.5%) also saw improvement after the first 12 games.
The Oilers roster was quite solid defensively, highlighted by the top pair of Bouchard (2.4 defensive goals above replacement in 2023-24) & Ekholm (2.5) and the forward duo of McDavid (1.7) and Hyman (3) in tough minutes, as well as the likes of McLeod (5.5), Derek Ryan (1.6), Mattias Janmark, (1.3) Brett Kulak (2.6) and Vincent Desharnais (6.5) in more sheltered roles. In fact, the only players who were really bad defensively for Edmonton last season were Draisaitl (-3.9), Kane (-4.6), Brown (1.9) and Cody Ceci (-1.6), with only Draisaitl making up for it in offense. As the playoffs went along and the Oilers played the same teams over and over again, those teams exploited Edmonton’s flaws, particularly the pairing of Nurse and Ceci, and it certainly caused trouble over the course of the postseason.
Unfortunately, they lost a few of those depth defensive pieces, and the new recruits don’t exactly come with sturdy defensive reputations to compensate for it. Ty Emberson (5.2) did his best to survive in brutal minutes with the Sharks and has potential, but Arvidsson (-0.3) and Podkolzin (0) were middling defensively last year, and Skinner (-8.3) and Josh Brown (-6.7) were atrocious defensively. We’ll see how much of an impact they have on the Oilers’ defensive game, with the possibility that these players will excel more in a different system, but it doesn’t leave a lot of hope for Edmonton’s defensive depth to be better this season.
Much like the rest of the team, the Oilers’ goaltending was horrendous to start the 2023-24 season. Through the team’s first 12 games, Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell were two of the worst goalies in the league, ranking fourth (.856%) and fifth (.873%) in save percentage among goalies with five games played, and had the first (-8.02) and tenth (-3) worst goals saved above expected in the league. That resulted in Campbell being sent to the minors and never returning, while the Oilers rode the wave with Skinner.
That paid off, as Skinner turned around his game and had a .913% save% (5th among goalies with at least 40 games in that span) and a 21.09 GSAx the rest of the way. He had his hiccups in the playoffs, but his .897 save% didn’t tell the full story compared to a 4.09 GSAx, and he backstopped the Oilers to within one win of the Stanley Cup.
Skinner will be the starter this season for Edmonton, and it’s probably safe to expect similar up-and-down results throughout the year, but he should finish with solid numbers overall. Calvin Pickard appears to be the likely candidate for the backup role, and while he was fine at times during the regular season and playoffs, the Oilers’ goalie depth doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence if Skinner falters at all this year.
Knoblauch starts his second season (and first full season) as an NHL head coach, and short of actually winning a Stanley Cup, he had as good of a first season at the NHL level as any. The Oilers went 46-18-5 under his watch to close out the year and then went on the run that they did, coming one game short of the Cup. The Oilers did improve in plenty of the numbers when he took over, but at the same time, the underlying numbers stayed relatively similar to what they were under Woodcroft. It at least means that Knoblauch didn’t hold back a talented roster, but does he have as much of an impact on this team as some may think? We may find out the answer to that at some point this season.
Like many teams geared towards winning, the Oilers don’t exactly have a surplus of young talent set to make a big impact this season. In fact, Daily Faceoff’s own prospect expert Steven Ellis called their prospect pool one of the worst in the league in his analysis of it earlier this summer. Some prospects like Beau Akey or Sam O’Reilly have an outside chance of making the team, but the only prospect on the team that I’d hold my breath on making the team is Savoie. The recently acquired center has looked great in the WHL and even in a brief stint in the AHL. He’ll likely get some seasoning in the minors this year, but don’t be surprised if he gets a call-up to fill in for an injury and gives Edmonton no choice but to keep him in the lineup.
1. How will Connor McDavid respond to last season? One of the consistently interesting narratives surrounding McDavid is how he responds to failure. When he didn’t win the Hart Trophy in 2022 because Matthews scored 60 goals, McDavid scored 64 goals the following season. People questioned the Oilers’ ability to perform in the playoffs, and McDavid now has 95 points his last three playoff runs. Well, he just became the first player since 2003 to win the Conn Smythe on the losing team in the Stanley Cup Final after the Oilers fell one game short of winning it all. Consider me excited wondering what he’s going to do this year after coming oh-so-close to the trophy he really wants.
2. Will age slow the Oilers’ down? The Oilers already had the oldest team in the league in 2023-24, and now they’ve moved on from even more of their younger depth players and replaced them with more veteran options, an issue that was only exasperated by the offer sheets to Holloway and Philip Broberg a few weeks ago. Now, only McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Nurse, Skinner, Emberson and Podkolzin find themselves under the age of 30 entering this season. At least some of their most important players are the younger ones, but sometimes you can go a bit too all-in on experience and risk the team tiring out too quickly.
3. Will the Oilers’ defensive depth be enough? The Oilers’ biggest flaw in the playoffs was their defensive depth, as they usually had problems with any pairing they put on the ice that wasn’t Bouchard and Ekholm. They found a bit of stability when they moved Broberg up in the lineup, but he’s gone now, leaving them a bit less upside for their options this season. Nurse has been inconsistent in a shutdown role over the past few seasons, Kulak has had his moments but isn’t trusted in big roles too often, Stecher is trusted even less so, and Emberson and Brown aren’t surefire solutions to the problem. They’ll either need big improvements from several players, or they’ll have to finally break up Bouchard and Ekholm to spread the wealth.
The Oilers were one of the best teams in the league last season and were just a win away from a Stanley Cup, and it’s easy to see them do the same again next season. They’ve added more offensive depth, lost a bit of defensive depth, and maintained the same shaky goaltending depth, so even if that results in a step back, I still see them being a lock for the playoffs and a strong contender for the Cup outside of luck or injuries causing problems. At the end of the day, it’ll come down to the dynamic offensive core led by McDavid, Draisaitl and now Bouchard, and they’ve been really good at getting the job done in recent seasons. The cap crunch is looming over the next two seasons, so the time is now for the Oilers to capitalize and win.
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Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 3 months ago
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