Originally posted on The Score
This is Part 1 of a two-part series ranking all 32 NHL teams by tiers for the 2024-25 season. Part 2, featuring the top 16 teams, will be published Saturday.
Keep in mind: This exercise rolls out roughly two weeks before training camps open, and tiers are based on personal projections for only the coming season, not each franchise's long-term trajectory. Tier 8 teams are furthest away from winning the 2025 Stanley Cup, while Tier 1 teams are closest. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
In a league of their own - and not in a good way
Jacob Markstrom, Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov all left Calgary from November 2023 through June 2024.
That's a starting goalie, two top-six forwards, and three top-four defensemen - gone. Yet since the overhaul was executed slowly over an eight-month stretch, the 2023-24 Flames managed to collect an admirable 81 points.
This season will be a different story.
Firmly in rebuild mode, and with barely enough money on the books to clear the salary floor, Calgary's thin at every position (it may have the league's worst centers) and will only get worse around the trade deadline. There'll be nowhere for the club's promising youngsters to hide, which will be painful for fans to watch but should ultimately lead to prime draft-lottery odds.
Teenage forwards Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith will contend for the Calder Trophy. Highly touted Yaroslav Askarov will provide another option in net. Veterans Tyler Toffoli, Alex Wennberg, Barclay Goodrow, Carl Grundstrom, Ty Dellandrea, Jake Walman, and Cody Ceci will bring stability to an extremely young core.
Big picture, the Sharks - who also have a new head coach in 36-year-old Ryan Warsofsky - are trending up.
That said, San Jose was a ghastly 19-54-9 with a minus-150 goal differential last season. The Sharks are at least two years away from even thinking about competing for a playoff spot. Honestly, I'll be shocked if they don't finish in the standings' bottom three by season's end.
Still building, a walkover most nights
I debated slotting the Ducks in Tier 8 after general manager Pat Verbeek essentially struck out in free agency. Their ceiling elevated them to Tier 7.
That ceiling isn't particularly high overall; 80 points, or roughly 15 points shy of the playoff cutline, feels like a giant step in the right direction for this franchise. But it's definitely higher than San Jose's and Calgary's.
The Ducks' six most important young skaters are Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, and Leo Carlsson. Their average age: 20.5. What a core. At least half of them (I'm guessing Mintyukov, Gauthier, and Carlsson) will pop off this season.
In summary, the Ducks won't go far, but they're equipped to improve upon last season's 59-point showing, Greg Cronin's first as head coach.
In my opinion, media and fans tend to underestimate how quickly an elite player can transition from fun rookie story to genuine star. On the flip side, we often overestimate how quickly a dreadful team can become a solid one.
Both misjudgments relate to the 2024-25 Blackhawks.
I predict Connor Bedard will record around 90 points as a sophomore - a notable feat on its own but even more impressive considering the relative lack of talent around him. (He led all Chicago skaters with 61 points in 68 games last season, despite playing mostly with Philipp Kurashev and Nick Foligno.)
I also predict the Blackhawks will continue to lose a ton of games. With useful veterans like Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen and second overall pick Artyom Levshunov now in the fold, Chicago is absolutely starting to resemble a respectable team. But making the playoffs remains a fantasy.
With respect to the Johnny Gaudreau tragedy, and how little the on-ice product matters to the Blue Jackets organization at this moment in time, I'll keep this brief. Columbus, a rebuilding team with a new GM-coach duo, will be grieving in training camp and beyond, and won't win many games in 2024-25.
Rest in peace, Johnny.
2024-25 won't be a banner season, for various reasons
A high-level recap of the Red Wings' offseason: David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere, Walman, Robby Fabbri, Daniel Sprong, and James Reimer are out. Vladimir Tarasenko, Erik Gustafsson, Tyler Motte, and Cam Talbot are in. Patrick Kane re-upped. Restricted free agents Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider remain unsigned but should be extended soon.
Despite all the action, Detroit still lacks a weapon or two up front; its goaltending is still nothing special, though slightly improved; and its blue line still has only three top-four defensemen. The Red Wings are decisively mid.
Florida, Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay will battle for the Atlantic Division's three playoff spots, with the loser grabbing a wild card. That leaves Detroit to jostle with Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, and a couple of Metropolitan teams for the other wild card. It won't be a massive surprise if the Red Wings take it, but several other teams have higher upside.
Each of the past few seasons could be labeled a "transition year" for the Wild, given how hamstrung the franchise has been by the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter contract buyouts. This coming season is the true transition, however.
For one, 2024-25's the last year of salary-cap hell, with the $14.7-million buyout penalty turning into a manageable $1.7-million hit next season. Secondly, it's John Hynes' first full season behind the bench. Thirdly, it's legendary goalie Marc-Andre Fleury's last season and hyped goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt's debut. (Filip Gustavsson's also slated to compete for starts.)
Minnesota made few offseason additions and subtractions. (Brock Faber's eight-year extension was GM Bill Guerin's big splash.) Like last season, the Wild will be competitive but not quite a playoff team.
If this was an exercise debating long-term outlooks, Montreal would be near the top of the list. Nearly every move of the Jeff Gorton-Kent Hughes-Martin St. Louis era has been a net positive in the present and additive to the future.
Take the Patrik Laine acquisition: low risk, high reward. If it doesn't work out, Hughes either finds a trading partner or Laine hits free agency after 2025-26. If it works, the Canadiens address a deficiency in scoring at a completely justifiable cost.
The Habs are on a fantastic trajectory, and I'm almost certain they play meaningful games during the 2024-25 stretch drive. But that's it with such a green blue line and goaltending tandem. The playoff drought continues.
The vibes around the slowly ascending Flyers have changed, with super-prospect Matvei Michkov officially under contract and set to debut in the NHL.
Short-term expectations should be tempered, though. The goaltending tandem of Ivan Fedotov and Samuel Ersson is wildly unproven. The power play was a disaster last season and Michkov can improve it only so much as a rookie. Captain Sean Couturier continues to grind through health issues. Defenseman Jamie Drysdale's progression will be under the microscope as Cutter Gauthier, who he was traded for, begins his career in Anaheim.
You can bank on a John Tortorella-coached team to be feisty, hard working, and structured, and this particular squad features plenty of hungry players in their mid-20s capable of giving the opposition fits. Overall, though, Philadelphia projects to fall short of the playoffs by 5-10 points.
Confession: I don't feel great about having the Blues in Tier 6.
I liked what GM Doug Armstrong accomplished this offseason, from the dueling offer sheets to former Oilers Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, to filling out the bottom two forward lines with three perfectly serviceable NHLers in Mathieu Joseph, Radek Faksa, and Alexandre Texier.
St. Louis unquestionably upgraded a roster that bagged 92 points last season and that will be a force in due time thanks to strong drafting.
Two things stop me from penciling the Blues in as a 2024-25 playoff team: the blue line is missing a marquee player (like Alex Pietrangelo in his prime), and the forwards don't have enough creativity and high-end finishing.
Legitimate chance at a playoff spot, if stars align
The Sabres entered 2023-24 feeling optimistic after flashing serious promise the season prior. Then the on-ice identity was altered and they transitioned from being able to score goals but not deny them to being able to deny them while being unable to score.
This diversion led to Don Granato's firing and Lindy Ruff's rehiring. Buffalo hasn't made the playoffs since 2010-11 - an NHL record 13-season drought that started in the final full year of Ruff's first tenure as head coach.
Depressing timeline aside, the Sabres' lineup card features a bunch of new names after GM Kevyn Adams' busy offseason. Newcomers Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod, Sam Lafferty, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, and Beck Malenstyn will add speed and make a team mostly built around high-end skill a bit more well-rounded.
Buffalo, led by 26-year-old Tage Thompson, 24-year-old Rasmus Dahlin, and 21-year-old Owen Power, will bounce back and (at the very least) chase a wild-card spot late in the season.
Like Buffalo, Ottawa's bound to evolve into a fringe playoff team at some point (right?). I'm not prepared to assign the "probable playoff team" label, but the Senators have a decent shot at stopping their dry spell at seven seasons.
The biggest swing factors: new goalie Linus Ullmark's performance (and, more broadly, coach Travis Green's tactical work to tighten up team defense); second-line center Josh Norris' effectiveness (he's missed 65% of the past two seasons due to injury); and offensive engine Tim Stutzle's production rate (the German's points per game dipped from 1.15 in 2022-23 to 0.93 last year).
I have concerns about skater depth, too. But if those three big swings go Ottawa's way, fourth-line and/or third-pair issues can be addressed via trade. This franchise is praying for an opportunity to be buyers.
Pittsburgh firmly belongs in Tier 5, which is the top of the bottom half. Put another way, it's fair to say they're roughly the 18th-best team out of 32.
Each of the Penguins' high earners (and on-ice pillars) are well into their 30s. Evgeni Malkin is suddenly 38, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are 37, and Erik Karlsson's 34. Conversely, the supporting cast became slightly younger and more intriguing over the offseason, with Rutger McGroarty, Cody Glass, Anthony Beauvillier, and Matt Grzelcyk headlining a large group of newcomers.
Despite icing multiple future Hall of Famers, the Pens' power play ranked 30th last year, and that simply can't happen again. Pittsburgh also needs better results from second-tier guys like defenseman Ryan Graves and forward Rickard Rakell. And they certainly won't make the playoffs if Crosby suddenly falls off.
The Kraken overcommitted to free agents Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour with term and money, but both players will help in 2024-25.
Seattle boasts a very well-balanced forward group (the equivalent of three second lines and a fourth line, I'd argue) and imposing blue line (rock-solid top two pairs and major upside with Will Borgen and Ryker Evans on the third).
This will be the Kraken's fourth season and first without Dave Hakstol running the bench. Dan Bylsma, who won the 2009 Stanley Cup with Pittsburgh, was promoted in May after a two-year stint leading AHL Coachella Valley. His connection to former Coachella players - forwards Shane Wright and Tye Kartye, and Evans - could help unlock something new in the young NHLers.
A lot rides on goaltending. Joey Daccord took a leap last year (.916 save percentage in 50 games) but nothing's guaranteed with him and unreliable Philipp Grubauer as the tandem. Especially in a top-heavy Pacific Division.
The team formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes made only a seven-point improvement in the standings from 2022-23 to 2023-24. But last season's developments signified something greater: a tangible step forward on the ice and - finally! - a change of pace off the ice with new ownership and relocation.
Utah's Andre Tourigny is the league's most underrated coach. GM Bill Armstrong upgraded the defense in a significant way in the offseason. The maturing forward group, while flawed in some ways, is led by power forward Lawson Crouse and game-breakers Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley.
Year 1 of the NHL in Salt Lake City will most likely be terrific. It'll be a great business story, no doubt, but much has to go exactly right on the ice for the club to clinch a Western Conference playoff spot. I think it's close to a coin flip.
Did you know Chris Patrick is GM of the Capitals? The early July announcement might be the most under-the-radar bit of news from the offseason. Another question: Do you have any idea who Chris Patrick is? Patrick, previously associate GM, is a Princeton product who worked in investment banking and private equity before joining the hockey club in 2008 as a scout. He's working alongside Brian MacLennan, more of a name in hockey circles, who still holds the title of president of hockey operations.
The news flew under the radar because it was hard to keep up with the Capitals this summer. On top of purchasing CapFriendly, the club turned over a third of its roster. Out: Darcy Kuemper, Nick Jensen, Max Pacioretty, Aube-Kubel, and Malenstyn. In: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mangiapane, Matt Roy, Jakob Chychrun, Brandon Duhaime, Taylor Raddysh, and Logan Thompson.
Washington raised its floor and ceiling with all the moves. This season, the 50th in franchise history, could be monumental, with Alex Ovechkin 42 goals from claiming the all-time goals record. But I see an imperfect lineup, one closer to middle of the pack than upper echelon.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 2 months ago
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