Fantasy Hockey 2024-24: Best Value Picks in each round based on Yahoo ADP

Everyone enters their Fantasy Hockey Draft hoping for the “perfect draft.” If you don’t get the No.1 overall pick and land Connor McDavid, that’s probably out of reach, but you can get close.

Using Yahoo ADP and my 2024 Fantasy Hockey Rankings, I’ve created a list of the most valuable picks in each round.

I drafted each player under the following league guidelines:

Roster: 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 2 G, 4 Bench
Scoring: G, A, PPP, SOG, +/- (skaters), W, GAA, SV%, SO (goalies)

Round 1 – Artemi Panarin (NYR – LW) – ADP: 10.1

Panarin has always been a steady fantasy contributor, but last season, he increased his shot volume drastically, which led to a career year at age 32. He finished fourth in the NHL in points (120), fifth in goals (49), fifth in assists (71), and ninth in SOG (303). He went from 2.5 SOG/gm to 3.7 SOG/gm, and if he maintains that volume this year, he should score 45 goals. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 71 assists per 82 games. Panarin’s numbers should be comparable to Leon Draisaitl’s and David Pastrnak’s, and he’s going five picks later.

Honourable Mention: Matthew Tkachuk (FLA – LW,RW)

Round 2 – Roman Josi (NSH – D) – ADP: 23.2

Over the last three seasons, Josi has been second among defensemen in goals (64), second in points (240), fourth in PPP (240), and first in SOG (818). During that stretch, he’s scored 0.2 fewer Fantasy Points per game (Yahoo Standard Scoring) than Cale Makar, a difference of 16.9 points over an 82-game season. You need to pass on elite forwards to select Makar at No.8 or No.9 overall, but you can get similar production from Josi 14 picks later. It’s also worth mentioning that this is likely the best team that Nashville has ever had around Josi.

Honourable Mention: Jack Hughes (NJD – C,LW)

Round 3 – Brayden Point (TBL – C) – ADP: 33.3

Point has been an elite goal-scorer over the last two seasons. His 97 goals are tied with Mikko Rantanen for third in the NHL; only Auston Matthews (109) and David Pastrnak (108) have more. He’s also tied for 13th with J.T. Miller and William Nylander in points (185). Every player mentioned is being drafted in the top 15 picks, but Point is available at pick 33. The Lightning may not be as deep as they used to be, but Point should find himself attached to Nikita Kucherov’s hip at 5v5, and Jake Guentzel is expected to be on the other side. That looks like one of the best lines in the NHL, and Point should have no issues matching his production from the last two seasons.

Honourable Mention: Jason Robertson (DAL – LW)

Round 4 – Jake Guentzel (TBL – LW) – ADP: 38.8

During his 28 games (regular season & playoffs) with the Hurricanes, Guentzel had 12 goals and 22 assists (34 points). That’s a 35-goal and 64-assist (99 points) pace in his first time without Sidney Crosby. He’s now in Tampa, skating with Point and Kucherov at 5v5 and net-front on the Lightning’s top power-play unit. Last year, Point and Kucherov averaged 3.8 GF/60 and 34.1 SCF/60 at 5v5, and the Lightning had the best PP% (28.6) in the league. So Guentzel is stepping into a perfect situation for fantasy and looks like a bargain in the early fourth round.

Honourable Mention: Alex Ovechkin (WSH – LW)

Round 5 – Wyatt Johnston (DAL – C,RW) – ADP: 56.6

Johnston turned into a fantasy darling last season, scoring 32 goals with 33 assists (65 points) in 82 games, and did so while being relatively unfortunate, tying for 11th in the league in most posts/crossbars hit with 13. Most of that damage came in the second half, when he was a point-per-game player, posting 42 points (22G / 20A) in his final 42 games. That production also carried into the playoffs, where he had 16 points (10G / 6A) in 19 games. During that 61-game stretch, Johnston scored at a 43-goal, 35-assist (78 points) pace. What’s most impressive is that 81.0 percent of those points came at even strength; he had just nine points on the PP during the time. This season, he’s expected to start the season on the wing with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, and he should see a lot more time on the top power-play unit. With elite linemates, he may unlock more 5v5 production and will inevitably have more points on the power play this season. Johnston could be a 90-point player this year and a league-winning pick in the fifth round.

Honourable Mention: Ilya Sorokin (NYI – G)

Round 6 – Mika Zibanejad (NYR – C) – ADP: 71.0

Zibanejad had a down year in 2023-24, and he’s plummeted down draft boards this season. Zibanejad was going in the early third round last season but can be picked up in the late sixth round this year. Most of his struggles came from his SH% dropping to 11.8, well below his Rangers career rate of 14.4. Positive regression to his SH% will be enough to get him back to 32 goals. His role is secure and the Rangers’ PP is still elite, so there’s no reason to think Zibanejad can’t get back to 30 goals and 50 assists this season. That production resembles Sebastian Aho, who is going two rounds earlier.

Honourable Mention: Dougie Hamilton (NJD – D)

Round 7 – Cole Caufield (MTL – LW,RW) – ADP: 80.6

Caufield loves to shoot the puck; in 2023-24, he ranked seventh in the NHL with 314 SOG. He didn’t score as many goals (28) as you might expect with that shot volume, but his SH% (8.8) should improve in 2024-25. In fact, of the 274 instances where a forward has had 300-plus shots in a season (since 1960), Caufield’s 28 goals were the 17th fewest. He was a 14.1 career shooter before last season, so there’s room for improvement. If all goes well, Caufield will be a 40-goal scorer. His stat line at the end of the season will likely resemble or be better than Carter Verhaeghe’s, who is going 21 spots ahead of Caufield.

Honourable Mention: Dylan Larkin (DET – C)

Round 8 – Roope Hintz (DAL – C) – ADP: 95.3

Hintz’s stats won’t jump off the page at you, but he’s a consistent source of 30-plus goals and 35-plus assists. Over the last three seasons, he’s tied for 25th in the NHL in goals (104) and 49th in points (212). The fantasy hockey community expects big things out of his linemates (Robertson and Johnston) but leaves Hintz by the wayside. Centre remains the deepest position in fantasy, so if you start your draft by loading up on wingers or drafting elite defensemen and goalies, Hintz is an excellent centre target in the middle rounds. If Robertson can return to the 100-point player he was two seasons ago and Johnston continues to develop into a star, Hintz could put up career-best totals.

Honourable Mention: Kevin Fiala (LAK – LW)

Round 9 – Alexis Lafreniere (NYR – LW,RW) – ADP: 104.8

Lafrenière enjoyed a career-best season in 2023-24, but it still feels like there’s more in the tank. If you look at how he finished last season, Lafrenière had 22 goals, 18 assists (40 points) and 120 SOG in his final 28 regular season games and 16 playoff games (44 games total). If you extrapolate that out over an entire season, that’s a 41-goal, 34-assist, 224 SOG pace. It’s hard to imagine him maintaining an 18.3 SH% over 82 games and getting to 40-plus goals, but he should have no trouble getting to 30-35. A full-fledged breakout likely won’t come until he gets a few extra minutes (17:16 ATOI), but there’s a safe floor and untapped upside worth taking a chance on in the ninth round.

Honourable Mention: Lucas Raymond (DET – LW,RW)

Round 10 – Zach Werenski (CBJ – D) – ADP: 116.6

After injuries ruined his 2023 season, Werenski returned in 2024 and set a career-high with 57 points (11G / 46A) in just 70 games. The durability concerns are baked into his ADP, and he puts up substantial fantasy numbers when he’s in the lineup. Of defensemen with at least 500 TOI last year, Werenski was fourth in SOG/60 (7.12), 12th in Assists/60 (1.61), 13th in Points/60 (2.00) and 21st in Goals/60 (0.39). He did all that while the Blue Jackets were 24th in Goals Per Game (2.85) and 31st in PP% (15.1), so there shouldn’t be any concerns about the quality around him because it doesn’t seem to matter. Werenski could finish as a low-end No.1/high-end No.2 fantasy blueliner, yet he’s being drafted as the No.29 defenseman.

Honourable Mention: John Carlson (WSH – D)

Round 11 – Jordan Kyrou (STL – C,RW) – ADP: 127.4

Kyrou has one of the most baffling ADPs this year. In the last three seasons, he’s averaged 33 goals, 42 assists (75 points) and 248 shots per 82 games. For context, that’s 32nd in SOG (711), tied for 40th in goals (95) and 46th in points (215). Those numbers aren’t league-winning, but he’s been remarkably consistent, and he’s among the top 40 fantasy forwards. Yet, on draft day, he’s going in the 11th round as the 61st forward off the board.

Honourable Mention: Nick Suzuki (MTL – C)

Round 12 – Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW) – ADP: 132.2

Ehlers has consistently left fantasy owners wanting more because he flashes brilliance throughout the season but has never reached 30 goals or 65 points in a season. The closest thing we’ve had to a breakout from him was in 2022, when he had 55 points (28G / 27A) in 62 games. That’s a 37-goal, 36-assist pace. His career-high usage (18:04) fuelled that production. Since then, he’s been under 16 minutes per night. This year, Ehlers will get a fresh start under new head coach Scott Arniel, and the hope is that Arniel will utilize the Dane more than Rick Bowness did in the two previous seasons. An additional minute or two will go a long way in boosting Ehlers’ production. Ehlers is also a pending UFA at the end of the season, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to have a breakout campaign in a contract year.

Honourable Mention: Jeff Skinner (EDM – LW)

Round 13 – Pavel Buchnevich (STL – C,LW) – ADP: 153.1

In his first three seasons with the Blues, Buchnevich has been near a point-per-game, tallying 206 points (83G / 123A) in 216 games. That’s a 32-goal and 47-assist (79 points) pace, but Buchnevich missed 30 games due to injury. While durability is a concern, it’s baked into his ADP. Buchnevich logs heavy minutes for the Blues, and his role in the top-6 and PP1 are locked in. In recent years, his production is very comparable to Jesper Bratt, but you can draft Buchnevich 97 picks later. You could argue that Bratt has more upside, especially when playing with Jack Hughes, but the disparity isn’t worthy of an eight-round difference.

Honourable Mention: Shayne Gostisbehere (CAR – D)

Round 14 – JJ Peterka (BUF – RW) – ADP: 160.9

A breakout season for Peterka is easy to spot. Last season, he played almost exclusively as a second-line winger with Dylan Cozens, but this year, he’s already skating on the top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch in training camp. At the end of last year, we saw that the Sabres would trust him to play big minutes, as the 22-year-old averaged 20:26 TOI/GM in his final 13 games. It’s a small sample size, but he averaged 3.5 SOG/gm in that time and second seven goals. It’s a guarantee that he’ll play more than the 16:24 he averaged last year, and his production should spike. In the somewhat limited ice-time (156:34) Peterka-Thompson-Tuch did see together last year, they scored at an outrageous rate (5.0 GF/60) while averaging a strong 31.4 SCF/60. You shouldn’t put too much stock into the preseason, but the breakout is already underway. Peterka is currently tied for the preseason lead in points with five (3G / 2A).

Honourable Mention: Justin Faulk (STL – D)

Round 15 – Dylan Guenther (UTA – RW) – ADP: 174.3

The Utah Hockey Club clearly believe in Guenther’s upside, locking him down to an eight-year deal worth $7.14M AAV, despite him playing only 78 career NHL games to date. Last season, he had 35 points (18G / 17A) in 45 games, including 18 points (10G / 8A) in his final 18 games. Guenther played 17:08 TOI/gm during that stretch, showcasing the type of usage you can expect this season. Putting too much stock into an 18-game sample size is tricky, but Guenther averaged 3.4 SOG/gm, a 279 SOG pace. If he can maintain anything close to that volume, Guenther should be a lock for 30 goals and could flirt with 40 goals this season. Guenther is a popular sleeper pick, so he likely won’t make it close to his ADP in competitive leagues but he should be a target of yours in the last couple of rounds.

Honourable Mention: Tyler Toffoli (SJS – RW)