Originally posted on The Score
A rockin' top pair is a must for any Stanley Cup contender, but the six duos featured on this list are from another planet. These teams should consider themselves very, very lucky to have some absolute units patrolling their blue line.
First, a caveat. The key New York Rangers duo of Ryan Lindgren and Adam Fox are missing from these rankings this time. Though the latter still posted Norris-esque offensive numbers during the 2023-24 season despite being hampered by a knee injury, it was an odd year for the pairing defensively. Most of their possession stats sagged below 50% in just over 900 minutes together at five-on-five, while the Rangers as a whole ranked 16th in GF% (50.2) and 22nd in xGF% (49). Given Lindgren and Fox's lengthy track record together, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where they don't bounce back, but it allowed us to spotlight other pairings.
With that out of the way, here we go.
All stats are from the 2023-24 regular season at five-on-five:
TOI = time on ice together
CF% = corsi (shot attempts) for percentage
GF% = goals for percentage
xGF% = expected goals for percentage
SCF% = scoring chances for percentage
The Carolina Hurricanes have some question marks on defense after this offseason, but their top pair isn't one of them. Slavin and Burns followed up their strong first act together with an excellent sophomore season in 2023-24. Among all pairs to see at least 250 minutes together at five-on-five, Carolina's minute-munching twosome ranked second in CF%, fifth in SCF%, and sixth in xGF%.
But Slavin and Burns showed some warts in the playoffs, with the Canes dictating 50.4% of the shot attempts, 47.5% of the expected goals, and 45.5% of the scoring chances with the duo on the ice. Burns, in particular, had a difficult time with the puck in transition. Despite those springtime issues, Slavin-Burns enjoyed a strong enough campaign to warrant inclusion on these rankings again.
Slavin continued to cement his reputation as one of the league's premier defensive defensemen, and it seems he's shedding his "underrated" label more and more by the day. He ranked second among all blue-liners in takeaways (71) and accounted for just 32 giveaways while amassing a mere eight penalty minutes. His ability to stay out of the box and take on a substantial defensive role earned him his second Lady Byng Trophy, making Slavin the second rearguard to win the award multiple times in league history.
One of the keys to Slavin and Burns' continued success is the latter's ability to fight off Father Time. At 39 years old, Burns led the Canes in average ice time (21:30) last season and hasn't missed a game since 2013. That makes for some hard miles, and he showed signs of slowing down in 2023-24.
We can't overlook the No. 1 pair on the reigning Stanley Cup champs.
These two were a force to be reckoned with in the regular season but were complete menaces in the playoffs, which is precisely what the Florida Panthers needed to win their first championship in franchise history. With Forsling and Ekblad together on the ice throughout the postseason, the Cardiac Cats dictated 56% of the shot attempts, 51.2% of the expected goals, and 54.3% of the scoring chances.
Quiz time: What did superstars Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider have in common when they faced the Panthers in the playoffs? None of them scored a goal at even strength. Yes, Florida's stingy play is also a credit to the incredible performances of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and captain Aleksander Barkov. But the Panthers tasked Forsling and Ekblad with some seriously tough assignments, and they lived up to the challenge. The duo even partially slowed down Connor McDavid in the Stanley Cup Final, as he was held off the scoresheet in Games 6 and 7.
Forsling, in particular, enjoyed a breakthrough campaign, leading all Panthers defensemen in points in both the regular season (39) and the playoffs (13). The oft-underrated Swede also held down the fort when Ekblad and Brandon Montour missed the first 16 games of the campaign. In just under 300 minutes with Forsling on the ice at five-on-five over that span, the Panthers dictated 56.3% of the scoring chances while outscoring opponents 16-10, helping Florida get off to a strong 10-5-1 start despite its thinned-out blue line. One more mind-blowing Forsling tidbit for the road: He was a league-leading plus-56 in 2023-24. What?
The first full season of Hughes and Hronek looked pretty damn good. Consider their unbelievable start: It took the Vancouver Canucks' top pair until the ninth game of the season to be on the ice for a five-on-five goal against.
Vancouver generated a whopping 72 five-on-five goals with Hughes and Hronek off the bench (only a to-be-named Edmonton Oilers duo was on for more). Of course, Hughes is the one garnering most of the headlines - he just took home the Norris Trophy after a career season in which he logged 17 goals and 92 points. Hughes is a special player on his own and was due for a meteoric ascension, but Hronek's impact isn't a nonfactor. Hughes has seen plenty of D-partners since Vancouver let Chris Tanev walk as a free agent in 2020, and the rediscovered stability looks great on the Canucks captain.
Unsurprisingly, Hronek also enjoyed a career year offensively with Hughes at his side, setting new highs in assists (43) and points (48). As a result, he was handed an eight-year, $58-million extension, but questions have sparked about Hronek's ability to carry a pairing on his own. His possession stats dropped significantly in the 300-odd minutes he spent away from Hughes at five-on-five, while Hughes' numbers improved. Of course, it's a small sample size, especially compared to the time they've spent together. Plus, their time apart was extremely situational.
The Canucks are going to need Hughes to continue at his game-breaking level if they're going to have a shot at a Cup. And if Hronek is helping maximize his potential as they continue to build chemistry, then why split up a good thing? Take it from Hughes, who said he fits "best" with Hronek.
Heiskanen may have finally found his full-time running mate, and the results have been extremely promising for the Dallas Stars so far.
Harley erupted onto the scene during his first full NHL season in 2023-24, amassing 15 goals and 47 points in 79 games. He earned a promotion to the top pair in late January, which is why he and Heiskanen have seen less ice time together than the other duos on this list. Prior to Harley's emergence, Heiskanen logged at least 200 minutes with four other rearguards in a single season over the last three years: Ryan Suter, Colin Miller, Nils Lundkvist, and Esa Lindell.
None of those previous partnerships yielded as strong results as the Harley-Heiskanen duo, whose xGF% and SCF% last season were the highest among all pairs to see at least 250 minutes of ice time together. Sounds pretty good, right? However, there's one thing that gives us pause. Harley and Heiskanen aren't guaranteed to spend the whole 2024-25 campaign together.
The main issue is that it requires the left-handed Heiskanen to play on his off side, which he's done for much of his NHL tenure. Still, we'd understand if the Stars wanted to find a way to put their No. 1 rearguard in the best position to succeed. Loading up the top pair also thins out the rest of the blue line in a hurry (remember, Dallas no longer has Tanev), and separating the two means the Stars could dominate at even strength for upwards of 40 minutes a night. But who will be Heiskanen's right-handed partner if Dallas splits him from Harley? Matt Dumba? Ilya Lyubushkin? It's not as good.
After back-to-back years in the No. 1 spot on these rankings, the Colorado Avalanche's elite top pair has been dethroned.
Of course, this isn't to say that either Toews or Makar fell off in 2023-24. Makar was named a finalist for the Norris Trophy for the fourth straight season after ranking second among all blue-liners with 90 points in 77 games (he's a cheat code, we know). Toews hit the 50-point mark for the third consecutive year and was one goal off from matching his career high of 13.
Toews and Makar recorded their most ice time together last season since becoming a duo in 2020-21. Though they continued to put up the strong underlying numbers we've come to expect from them, they weren't as dominant as they were in the two prior campaigns. Only 10 duos logged at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five in 2023-24, and Toews-Makar ranked seventh in GF%, sixth in CF%, and fourth in xGF% and SCF% among that group.
Let us reiterate: This pairing is worthy of the first-place mantel just because it has Makar on it, and he and Toews will undoubtedly be a staple on Canada's back end on the international stage for years to come. Their success has been extremely well-documented, but it's just fun to switch it up sometimes, and the next duo on this list is extremely deserving of the top spot. Hey, it's nice that Toews-Makar has some serious competition. It spices things up.
There's a new No. 1 pairing in town.
Edmonton's blue line has rightfully been a focal point for criticism during the Leon Draisaitl and McDavid era, but man, have Ekholm and Bouchard been a breath of fresh air for the Oilers. They were outstanding during their first full regular season together in 2023-24, ranking fourth in CF% among all pairs to see at least 500 minutes together at five-on-five, fifth in GF%, and second in xGF% and SCF%.
Before you ask, no, their success isn't simply due to McDavid. In just under 500 minutes of ice time away from McDavid during the regular season, Ekholm-Bouchard still owned a strong 57.9 CF%, 56.5 xGF%, and 61 GF%.
We can't talk about Ekholm and Bouchard without mentioning what they did during the Oilers' run to the Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton dictated 57.8% of the shot attempts, 61.3% of the expected goals, and 59.2% of the scoring chances while outscoring opponents 22-12 with Ekholm-Bouchard on the ice. In comparison, Edmonton as a team owned a goal share of 53-52, meaning it was outscored 40-31 when its top pair was on the bench. The duo did all that while being the most utilized pairing of the spring, compiling just over 400 minutes of ice time together.
All of that is impressive, but we haven't even touched on Bouchard's playoff production. This past spring, the 24-year-old became the fourth defenseman to log at least 30 points in a single postseason and the first since Brian Leetch in 1994. Bouchard also established a new blue-line record for most assists (26) in one postseason.
Notables to miss the cut:
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 1 month ago
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