Originally posted on The Score
We've already ranked the top goaltending tandems and defensive pairings to gear up for the 2024-25 season, and today, we'll cap off our positional analysis with the best forward lines across the league.
Injuries, cold spells, and tinkering coaches make this a difficult exercise, as only 20 trios played at least 400 minutes together last season. We're using that number as a threshold to qualify for our rankings, which omits some highly effective combinations.
For example, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart posted sterling numbers with different left-wingers in 2023-24, but no set unit leading Florida's attack left the reigning Cup champs off our list. Another tricky choice to be axed was the Devils' projected top line of Timo Meier, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt. While the talent there is undeniable, injuries kept them apart for too long last season to make the cut.
We're using the previous campaign's stats (with one exception) as our criteria, along with an emphasis on game-breaking talent, goal differential, and select underlying stats. All numbers are from the regular season at five-on-five.
Lines to narrowly miss the cut include: Robertson-Hintz-Johnston (Stars), Kempe-Kopitar-Byfield (Kings), Svechnikov-Aho-Jarvis (Hurricanes), Kyrou-Buchnevich-Thomas (Blues)
This triumvirate was Toronto's most used under Sheldon Keefe last season and has stuck together to open training camp under Craig Berube. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been productive together for several years, and their reputations as star players speak for themselves. The pair have worked with a rotating cast of left-wingers over the past few seasons, but Matthew Knies is perhaps the best option since Zach Hyman left for Edmonton.
The soon-to-be 22-year-old managed 30 points in his rookie campaign but showed signs of becoming a more impactful player with a strong opening-round series against the Boston Bruins. Knies offers physicality and strong puck-retrieval skills, helping get the puck to his more skilled linemates. While Knies may be considered the "grunt" of the line, he's flashed offensive creativity, and his five-on-five production on a per-60 basis topped the likes of John Tavares, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Calle Jarnkrok in Toronto's ranks.
Knies' inexperience almost pushed this unit off the list, but this line can potentially do serious damage this season if he blossoms offensively the way the Maple Leafs expect him to.
Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere are mid-tier stars compared to some other names on this list, but the pair thrived alongside Artemi Panarin atop the New York Rangers' attack last campaign. This was the most-utilized line in the league in 2023-24, and it's easy to see why Peter Laviolette entrusted them with key minutes based on their actual and expected results.
Panarin was the catalyst with a sizzling 120-point campaign. However, Trocheck and Lafreniere held their own with personal highs of 77 and 57 points, respectively. Trocheck could be in line for some regression this season, but Lafreniere's emergence as a star in the making could offset any downturn in points from the veteran center. Lafreniere arrived in a big way in his fourth NHL campaign, finally looking like the can't-miss prospect New York selected first overall in 2020. Another step forward for Lafreniere - who has extra motivation to thrive in a contract year - could give the Rangers one of the best winger duos in the NHL with a reliable veteran down the middle to boot.
Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen could probably play with an ECHLer on their left flank and still find a way to terrorize opponents in the offensive zone. The Avs' top two forwards are each 50-goal, 100-point threats and have developed remarkable chemistry over the years. Colorado used Valeri Nichushkin in the left-wing slot alongside MacKinnon and Rantanen to great effect, but injuries and off-ice issues opened the door for Jonathan Drouin to take a spin with the big dogs last season.
Colorado took a flier on Drouin last summer and, to the shock of no one, revitalized his career. Drouin, who played junior hockey with MacKinnon in Halifax, posted a career-high 56 points in 79 games in 2023-24 and helped the Avs' top line dominate possession nightly. Of all the lines to play 400 minutes together last season, this group ranked fifth in goal share, seventh in expected goals, and second in goals per 60.
There's no question the stars do the bulk of the heavy lifting in Denver, but Drouin is a terrific complementary piece.
This line deserves an asterisk since they've never played together. Still, all three players are good enough to safely assume the Lightning will run roughshod on opposing defenses when their new-look top unit is deployed. Brandon Hagel and Steven Stamkos split time with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov last season, and the group posted much stronger numbers with Hagel over Tampa's former captain. While Hagel is an outstanding player in his own right, he's no Guentzel.
The Lightning now have three 40-goal players on their top attacking option, and Guentzel's on-ice results between Pittsburgh and Carolina last season suggest he should fit in seamlessly alongside some new stars. Guentzel has played a top-six role for most of his career, primarily on Sidney Crosby's hip.
Team GF-GA CF% xGF% Penguins 46-40 55.59% 55.27% Hurricanes 14-4 61.52% 64.48%It might take a little while for chemistry to develop, but we're willing to give Tampa's trio the benefit of the doubt heading into a season with big expectations.
It should come as no surprise that the league's best player anchors the league's top forward line. Among trios to qualify, Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ranked fourth in goal share, third in expected goals against, and first in shot attempts and expected goals for.
Hyman is unlikely to repeat his 54-goal outburst from a year ago but can be counted on to be in the 30-40 range based on his penchant for converting chances in front of the net. He and Nugent-Hopkins are also strong defensively, which creates more time to get the puck on McDavid's stick in transition. Edmonton's captain has topped 120 points in the past three seasons. While he could likely succeed with any combination on his line, rewarding him with a pair of star wingers is truly an embarrassment of riches for the Oilers.
(Advanced stats source: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 1 month ago
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