Don’t panic over Oilers’ slow start – with one crucial exception

This one’s for the Dr. Manhattan fans out there:

The month is October 2023. The Edmonton Oilers are a popular Stanley Cup pick. The Edmonton Oilers cannot win a game.

The month is October 2024. The Edmonton Oilers are a popular Stanley Cup pick. The Edmonton Oilers cannot win a game.

Last season, Edmonton didn’t thud against the bottom of the pit until their record reached 2-9-1 in early November. Jay Woodcroft was fired as head coach one game after that. Kris Knoblauch took the reins, the Oilers surged back into contender status, and none of us will soon forget the team’s run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

But if we squinted closely before the Woodcroft firing last season: the signs of a turnaround were already present. The Oilers led the NHL in almost every 5-on-5 offensive play-driving metric and expected goal share. They were controlling their games. It was only a matter of time before pucks started going in and they caught fire.

This season, after starting 0-3-0 and getting outscored 15-3, the Oilers…lead the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts and scoring chances per 60. They have the have the sixth-lowest expected goals against rate at 5-on-5. Just like a year ago, they remain the same dominant team under the hood. They’re simply snakebitten with a league-low shooting percentage of 3.19 percent.

So we can obviously laugh off most of this horrific start. A team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard is going to start scoring any day now.

But there’s one element to Edmonton’s October thus far that should spike the heart rate a bit. Last season, when they were 2-9-1 and had the league’s best play-driving metrics, they carried the league’s worst save percentage at .860. This season: second-last at .783 through three games. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have been disasters.

Why does it matter to point that out when the sample size is a miniscule three games? Because Skinner in particular has a vice grip on the Oilers’ results over a much larger sample size. If he was even a league-average goaltender last October, Woodcroft probably would’ve kept his job. When Knoblauch received a lot of credit for Edmonton’s surge up the standings – which was reasonably deserved given how much he improved the team’s defensive play – Skinner’s was in the midst of a huge hot streak.

Here’s a breakdown, month by month, showing the Oilers’ expected goal share and team save percentage. You can figure out which has a stronger correlation with their record.

Month5-on-5 xGF% (rank)SV% (rank)recordOct. 202353.46 (8th).867 (31st)2-5-1Nov. 202357.88 (2nd).878 (26th)7-7-0Dec. 202359.89 (1st).908 (11th)9-3-0Jan. 202459.40 (2nd).953 (1st)11-0-0Feb. 202453.08 (9th).872 (28th)6-5-1March 202455.39 (5th).917 (7th)10-3-2April 202457.14 (5th).883 (25th)4-4-2Oct. 202453.22 (11th).783 (31st)0-3-0

Wow. The Oilers never once dropped out of the top 10 in expected goal share last season. But their save percentage veered wildly from as high as first to as low as 31st. They went a perfect 11-0-0 the same month they led the NHL in save percentage. During the four months they sat 25th or worse in save percentage, they compiled a 19-21-4 record.

So far this season, the pattern looks frighteningly similar: still driving the play just fine, but Skinner and Pickard are not stopping the puck.

One could argue that Skinner is as good as any starter in the league when he’s on one of his heaters, that he was good enough to get them to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final…but that would mean ignoring the fact he was also benched partway through Edmonton’s Round 2 series with the Vancouver Canucks only to wrest the job back from Pickard.

It has become increasingly clear that the Oilers have to win in spite of Skinner as often as they do because of him. His career splits include three months with a save percentage south of .900 and three with one north of .900. He’s arguably the least consistent No. 1 goalie in hockey. And when one player’s performance has a stronger influence on the results than how well the entire team drives the play at 5-on-5, that’s a big problem. Just watch: Edmonton’s next surge up the standings will coincide with (a) continuing the strong play driving they were already exhibiting and (b) their goaltending getting hot again. You don’t want to live and die on your masked man’s performance that much.

Don’t panic about the Edmonton Oilers as a team. Do panic about their goaltending. Without consistency between the pipes, it will be difficult to win the Stanley Cup.

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