What's wrong with the Avalanche?

Is it time to panic in Denver?

That's the question everyone is asking as the star-studded Colorado Avalanche find themselves in an 0-4-0 hole to start the season.

Key absences have undoubtedly played a major part. Colorado was already without forwards Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, and Artturi Lehkonen to begin the season. More injuries are piling up: winger Jonathan Drouin missed the last three contests, and top-pairing defenseman Devon Toews sat out for the last two. Miles Wood got hurt during Wednesday's 5-3 loss to the Boston Bruins.

It's more than just the injuries, though. The Avalanche have struggled in their own end. Their net-front defense was soft against the Bruins, constantly leaving white jerseys wide open. Despite what the underlying numbers say (Colorado controlled 58.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five), the Avs had no business winning this game. They got off to a sluggish start, and the ice was tilted in Boston's favor until Colorado was trailing late and pressing to even things up.

Similar issues have popped up in the Avalanche's other losses. The 6-2 defeat to Patrick Roy's New York Islanders on Monday was arguably their worst showing, with perennial Norris Trophy candidate Cale Makar shouldering the blame for what he described as "stupid, childish mistakes."

In Saturday's 6-4 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets, the goaltending thoroughly let them down. Both Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen let in goals that NHL netminders simply cannot allow.

The season-opening 8-4 loss the Vegas Golden Knights was a mix of a poor goaltending and sloppy defensive play.

If you're seeing a trend here, your eyes aren't deceiving you. The Avalanche are surrendering goals at an alarming rate: 25 against through four games, or 6.25 per contest - by far the worst mark in the league. Their penalty kill is also the worst in the league, operating at a paltry 54.6%.

Ashley Potts / National Hockey League / Getty

Georgiev has started all four games and was yanked in two of them. His .800 save percentage is the worst among goalies who've started more than one game and his minus-8.87 goals saved above expected is also the worst among all NHL netminders. This isn't exactly a new issue: Georgiev won a league-high 38 games last season despite a subpar .897 save percentage.

Annunen has allowed four goals on 17 shots in his two relief appearances this season (.765 save percentage), but it'd be wise to give him an extended look. The 24-year-old flashed some promise last year with a .928 save percentage in 14 games.

The Avalanche don't have a healthy, experienced goalie in the AHL worthy of a recall, either. Waiver claim Kaapo Kahkonen is currently injured, but it would be worth trying him out when he's back. If the goaltending doesn't improve fast, Colorado may have to explore external options. Trades aren't easy to pull off this early in the year, but Martin Jones is still an unrestricted free agent. The 34-year-old journeyman was surprisingly solid for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, stopping 4.22 goals above expected in 22 appearances.

The other move the Avalanche could make to try and turn things around is a coaching change, but that might still be premature. Jared Bednar is the third-longest tenured coach in the league, the winningest coach in franchise history, and led the team to the Stanley Cup three years ago. But if things continue to unravel, president of hockey operations Joe Sakic might have no choice. Sometimes a fresh voice can work wonders (see the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers).

The Avalanche are the ninth team in the salary-cap era to begin the season 0-4-0. Only two of them made the postseason (one during the expanded 2020 playoffs) and five of them fired their coach.

Team Start Playoffs? Coaching change? 2022-23 Sharks 0-5-0 No No 2021-22 Canadiens 0-5-0 No Yes 2019-20 Wild 0-4-0 Yes* Yes 2019-20 Sharks 0-4-0 No Yes 2015-16 Blue Jackets 0-8-0 No Yes 2015-16 Oilers 0-4-0 No No 2008-09 Ducks 0-4-0 Yes No 2007-08 Thrashers 0-6-0 No Yes

*2019-20 Wild were 10th in the Western Conference via points percentage when the regular season came to a halt due to the pandemic and were included in the expanded postseason format.

Avalanche fans can cling to the 2008-09 Ducks as an example. They were similarly two years removed from a Stanley Cup and still boasted much of the same team. Goaltender J.S. Giguere also struggled early in that season before backup Jonas Hiller ultimately took over the No. 1 job.

Still, no team in NHL history has won the Stanley Cup after an 0-4-0 start, per Sportsnet.

While the odds are stacked against the Avalanche, this is still a team led by one of the NHL's top cores. Both Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are top five players in the league. Mikko Rantanen is probably just outside the top 10. If any team can dig themselves out of a hole, it's this one. The stars are all producing, too: Makar has eight points while MacKinnon and Rantanen have seven each. The power play is one of the lone positives, humming at a league-best 50%.

Some reinforcements would help. Thankfully, Toews and Wood are considered day-to-day. But Drouin and Lehkonen won't be re-evaluated until Oct. 28. Nichushkin can't return from his suspension until mid-November at the earliest. Landeskog said he hopes to return early this season, but that's no guarantee, and it remains to be seen how effective he'll be after two missed seasons and three knee surgeries. His presence alone would be a big boost, though.

For now, the Avalanche will have to rely on those left in the room. While the goaltenders absolutely need to start making the routine saves, the skaters must bear down defensively and make the opposition earn it. They cannot be giving up any freebies.

It may not be time to sound the alarm just yet. It's worth noting that Colorado went 1-3-0 to start the 2021-22 campaign - and eventually won the Stanley Cup. However, if the Avalanche can't take care of business in their next two games against the inferior Ducks and Sharks, it'll be time to smash the panic button.

(Analytics sources: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)

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