Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
All-time player rankings always bring the heat.
Ranking anything typically results in polarizing debates. But ranking hockey players across generations, eras, franchises, playing styles, scoring environments… it’s a perfect canvas for passionate perspectives.
To rank the best of all-time, my Hockey Hall of Fame methodology, the Pidutti Point Share System — PPS for short — will drive the list. By design, the model ignores off-ice impact, fame, or intangibles. Instead, it focuses exclusively on a player’s on-ice impact over their NHL career, relative to era. Full stop. PPS exists as a starting point for discussion. It’s delivered empirically to create a level playing field, reducing the noise around player perception or legacy.
Today in Part 1, our focus is on where active forwards rank among the greatest of all-time. Is Connor McDavid a top 10 forward yet? How high up the list is Nathan MacKinnon? Does Artemi Panarin make the top 100? Any active player who cracks PPS’s Top 100 Forwards will be featured. Defensemen and goaltenders will follow in Part 2 later this week.
Before we get into the list, a quick note on PPS. It’s been two years since the model was first released to the public in this article and at Adjusted Hockey. It’s held up to scrutiny and the smell test better than I’d hoped. But I listened to your feedback and comments over the last two years on social media, checked my own biases, and tweaked the model in the offseason.
In GM talk, it’s a retool and not a rebuild — a natural evolution toward improvement. The full updated rankings and 2024 player cards will be available ahead of Hall of Fame induction weekend next month.
Now, on to the rankings…
It’s a terrific time to watch legendary forwards at work. With Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin committed for three and two more seasons, respectively, and Connor McDavid at the peak of his powers, there’s a trio of top 10 forwards actively moving the needle.
Reminder: these are not projections — they capture where the player would rank if they retired today.
Note: Player age in brackets below are as of October 23, 2024; PPS scores are through the 2023-24 season.
#3. Sidney Crosby (Age: 37): It took Crosby 19 point-per-game seasons, but he’s created a cushion on Howe and Jagr. As long as a player’s production doesn’t fall off completely (think Jeff Carter last year), their Career score is designed to rise faster than their Pace score. So, Sid is locked in as the #3 forward in PPS. Overall, he has no path to catch Lemieux, but does lead his old landlord in Career, Playoff, and Award value.
#6. Alex Ovechkin (39): Coming off a 65-point season, Ovechkin’s PPS isn’t going to move much as he approaches 40 years old. He’ll retire in the #6 position, easily the best left winger ever. But what will surpassing Gretzky’s once-unbreakable all-time goal mark do for his legacy? Only time will tell…
#9. Connor McDavid (27): Yes, at 27 years old, McDavid could retire with a top-10 career among all forwards. Running a cautious eight-year projection — where McDavid stays relatively healthy, declines steadily, never wins another MVP or scoring title, has a few deep playoff runs but never wins a Cup — and his PPS would end up around 400. This leaves many plausible paths to the #3 spot, whether through further extending his prime, winning a Cup (+5) and/or another Smythe (+5), or an international best-on-best title (+5). While he will need to stay healthy, anything short of a quick decline and endless team failures puts Crosby in reach.
#16. Evgeni Malkin (38): Whoa. No need to check your prescription, or find your nearest NHL Centennial 100 Greatest Players voter and shake them. Malkin’s famous snub is well-documented. Among players in the 1,000-game club, the Pens‘ #2 center is the fourth-best era adjusted point scorer on a per-game basis. While his hot start is delivering good vibes and nostalgia, Malkin is likely to retire #15 on the list — just shy of icons Beliveau and Rocket Richard. Decent company.
#23. Patrick Kane (35): With a Hart, scoring title, Smythe, and three Cups, Kane’s on-ice legacy is secured. If he can find last season’s mojo as a top-six contributor this year — and beyond — he should be able to jump ahead of Eric Lindros and old-time sniper Nels Stewart, who held the NHL’s career goal mark for 16 seasons. A top-20 spot is out of reach at his age and with his injury history.
#25: Steven Stamkos (34): While the slow start in Nashville means little, Stammer’s even-strength production has quietly cratered over the last three seasons. So, this could be as high as he rises. Though his rate will drop with age, Stamkos is currently third in era adjusted goals-per-game (0.55) in the 1,000-game club, trailing only Ovechkin (0.64) and Brett Hull (0.56). An underappreciated, transcendent sniper.
#26: Nikita Kucherov (31): While it might be a surprise to see Kucherov here, it shouldn’t be. We often can’t appreciate dominance in real-time. This is a player with two scoring titles, two playoff scoring titles, two Cups, a 144-point season and an MVP… all by age 30. And he lost a full prime season to injury. Barring early retirement or total collapse, Kucherov should cruise to top-20 forward status.
#33. Nathan MacKinnon (29): Coming off his first MVP after several near-misses, MacKinnon is peaking later than most colossal talents. While his Avalanche haven’t been quite right since the 2022 Cup run, their star center has found another gear. If you don’t think of MacKinnon as a historically great forward, it’s time to start. He should hit 1,000 points before turning 30, and like Kucherov, should target a top-20 ranking one day.
#41: Auston Matthews (27): Winning a single playoff round in eight seasons can blur perspective. Similar stigmas followed Yzerman and Ovechkin into their 30s. But Matthews ended last season as the greatest era-adjusted goal scorer at his age. Above Gretzky, Ovechkin, Lemieux, Bossy. Everyone. This isn’t a guy that scores a lot. This is a guy that — with proper context — has scored more than anyone through age-26. The sky’s the limit for the Leafs‘ captain. Is it Stamkos? Brett Hull? Ovechkin?
#42: Brad Marchand (36): No need to call the exterminator… this versatile pest is where he’s supposed to be. For once. It’s hard to see Marchand ranked this high and not question the model’s validity, though. I get it. Tied with Jari Kurri? But once you roll back the mandatory dislike for Marchand and level the offensive climate, you get these 82-game scoring averages:
#55: Leon Draisaitl (28), PPS — 261: A few days shy of his 29th birthday, Draisaitl will be a top-50 forward by the end of the year. He’s highly durable, an elite post-season producer, and a surefire Hall of Famer.
#61: David Pastrnak (28), PPS — 257: While not often associated with one another, Pastrnak and Draisaitl’s careers are eerily similar in terms of arc and output. Pastrnak is both underrated and climbing this list fast.
#69: John Tavares (34), PPS — 242: Playing on vanilla Isles‘ and underachieving Leafs’ teams, plus spending his prime in low-offense times, J.T.’s brilliance is overlooked. His adjusted 82-game pace after over 1,100 games? 36/45/81. For perspective, the two-time MVP finalist is one spot behind Hall of Famer Paul Kariya.
#71: Anze Kopitar (37), PPS — 242: Kings fans might look at their long-tenured horse and scream for a higher spot. While his defensive impacts are stellar, his lone point-per-game season yields a low Peak score.
#73: Artemi Panarin (32), PPS — 240: Debuting at 24, Panarin isn’t going to put up notable career totals. But his points-per-game (1.17) rivals Draisaitl and Panarin is coming off a career-high 120 points. A Stanley Cup would do wonders for his PPS score and reputation in the clutch.
#95: Corey Perry (39), PPS — 226: Now the third-oldest skater in the NHL (behind Ryan Suter and Brent Burns), Perry has survived into his 20th season. He’ll retire a top-100 forward with a legitimate but complicated Hall of Fame case.
Just Missed: #101. Mikko Rantanen; #111. Jamie Benn; #118. Claude Giroux; #124. Aleksander Barkov; #131. Tyler Seguin.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; visit www.adjustedhockey.com
Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 3 weeks ago
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