Originally posted on The Score
The first edition of these rankings is always the most difficult because of the relatively small sample size. Some players on the earliest list inevitably won't crack the final one in the spring, and conversely, some players who aren't in the mix right now will surely find their way into the race by season's end.
That being said, more than a handful of players have already provided significant value to their teams. They're worth recognizing, even with the understanding that there are still five months left in the regular season.
Connor McDavid missed only three games with his ankle injury, so his long-term Hart hopes may not ultimately be affected. But for now, his absence allowed the spotlight to shine on others (including a certain teammate) making cases so far.
Here are our top five MVP candidates about a month into the 2024-25 season.
xGF% = Five-on-five expected goals for percentage
Draisaitl, who won this award in 2019-20, is making an argument to be on the fringes of the discussion again for several reasons. The Edmonton Oilers forward helped his club go 2-1-0 without McDavid, notching three goals and three assists in those contests.
But it's not just about what he did without the three-time MVP. Draisaitl's underlying numbers are sublime, as he's the only player on this list with xGF and scoring chances for percentages above 60. Only Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault, both of the Los Angeles Kings, have better xGF numbers among all NHL forwards with at least 150 minutes played at five-on-five, and Draisaitl's 60.1 SCF% ranks seventh in the league in that group.
The 29-year-old German star has six more goals and six more points than his next-best teammates. Even though McDavid posted 10 points in as many games when he was healthy, the Canadian is one of three Oilers with just three goals. Four Edmonton skaters have only two.
The Oilers have been inconsistent this season after getting all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in the spring. Still, Draisaitl would likely be a fringe candidate regardless, and he deserves credit for providing a sizable amount of value so far.
MacKinnon hasn't missed a beat in 2024-25 after earning MVP honors for the first time in June. The Colorado Avalanche catalyst vaulted into the lead in the Art Ross Trophy race with five points (albeit all assists) in a win over the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday.
It hasn't been easy for the Avalanche in the early going, as they came into Thursday's slate sitting sixth in the Central Division at 6-7-0. MacKinnon has also gotten a great deal of help from Cale Makar, who's posted five goals and 18 assists over 13 games. Those two factors hurt MacKinnon's Hart case.
However, the 29-year-old still belongs in the conversation. His underlying numbers – like Makar's – have been excellent. MacKinnon is also shouldering a heavy workload, as only teammate Mikko Rantanen has a higher average ice time among all NHL forwards this season – by just one second.
Playoff spot or not, MacKinnon warrants consideration. But for better or worse, the Avalanche need to get back into contention if the reigning MVP hopes to sway the majority of Hart voters.
Kucherov is back in the mix after being voted the Hart runner-up last season. The Tampa Bay Lightning superstar is tied for the league lead in goals, sits third in points, and he's tied for second in even-strength points with 15.
The Russian is shooting at a 20% clip (compared with 14.4% when he netted a career-best 44 goals last season), which indicates he's unlikely to sustain this rate of scoring. However, Kucherov's value is undeniable. The 31-year-old has at least eight more points than any of his teammates and leads the Lightning in goals by two.
Kucherov's underlying numbers have been favorable, too. In addition to his xGF%, the Bolts have controlled more than 50% of the scoring chances (51.67) with the veteran winger on the ice at five-on-five in 2024-25. Kucherov's average ice time so far would be the second-highest of his 11-year career if he sustains it, following his 21:40 figure in 2023-24.
It's only natural to be skeptical of Reinhart's ability to repeat his 57-goal, 94-point effort from 2023-24. After all, the Florida Panthers forward scored nearly half (27) of his tallies last season on the power play, leading the NHL by six. He also posted a shooting percentage of 24.5, or more than 10 percentage points higher than his previous career average of 14.1.
But Reinhart has picked up right where he left off, and the circumstances are even more impressive. Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov missed eight games in October, and their talented teammate Matthew Tkachuk had to sit out five of his own. That partly explains why Reinhart has eight more points than his next-best teammates (as well as two more goals and four more assists), but the disparities illustrate his value nonetheless.
Reinhart – who turned 29 on Wednesday – notched four goals and six assists in the five games Barkov and Tkachuk missed from Oct. 12-19. The Canadian's stellar play is the primary reason Atlantic Division-leading Florida (9-3-1) went 5-2-1 without Barkov and 3-1-1 without both of them.
Yes, Reinhart's shooting percentage is even higher than it was last season at a whopping 26.3%, but some other trends are encouraging. Not only is he relying less on power-play scoring this time around (he's scored just two goals that way), but he's buried three shorthanded markers, which leads the league.
The Minnesota Wild (8-2-2) weren't supposed to be this good, and Kaprizov has been the biggest reason for his club's surprising emergence. The dynamic winger sits among the league's scoring leaders, is tied for second in even-strength points, and ranks fourth in overall points per game among those who've played more than one.
Kaprizov led the league's forwards in average ice time this season as recently as Monday afternoon. But he played a season-low 17:10 in a loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday because he took a puck to the mouth in the second period before getting stitched up and returning for the final frame.
The 27-year-old has twice as many assists and eight more points than the closest Wild skaters, further demonstrating how instrumental his contributions have been to Minnesota's success.
Kaprizov, who's coming off a 46-goal, 50-assist season, does have an inflated shooting percentage (21.2), which is well above the 16.3% he established over his first four campaigns. But Kucherov's countryman has done more than enough so far to launch himself to the front of the early Hart Trophy race.
(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 1 week ago
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