Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick – 11/16/2024

The Edmonton Oilers will face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. It’s Hockey Night in Canada, so we’re sharing our NHL odds series and making an Oilers-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.

The Oilers won a dramatic game on Thursday, beating the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime. Meanwhile, the Leafs also won an overtime thriller, edging out the Washington Capitals on the road on Wednesday.

The Leafs defeated the Oilers 6-3 in the last showdown on March 24, 2024, in Toronto. Overall, they are 7-2-1 over the last 10 games against the Oilers. The Maple Leafs are also 4-0-1 over the past five games against the Oilers at the Scotiabank Arena.

Here are the Oilers-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

NHL Odds: Oilers-Maple Leafs Odds

Edmonton Oilers: -1.5 (+172)

Moneyline: -146

Toronto Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-215)

Moneyline: +122

Over: 6.5 (+104)

Under: 6.5 (-128)

How To Watch Oilers vs Maple Leafs

Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT

TV: NHL Network

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why the Oilers Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Oilers are slowly making their way back up and kept it up after Connor McDavid set a milestone by notching his 1,000th career point. After struggling to start the season, things are picking up for McDavid and the Oilers.

The Oilers are 18th in goals and 15th in assists, and they are finally starting to score after a horrendous start. Their shooting is still down, but they are starting to improve, as they rank 21st in shooting percentage.

Leon Draisaitl has been stellar, with 12 goals and 10 assists, including two powerplay tallies. However, he has struggled defensively against the Leafs, with a plus-minus of -8. McDavid has tallied six goals and 13 assists over 14 games against the Maple Leafs. Amazingly, he has tallied 11 goals and 24 assists over 23 career games against Toronto.

Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are off to sluggish starts. Hyman has three goals and four assists over 17 games, while Nugent-Hopkins has one goal and six assists over 17 contests. Consequently, both have struggled to find the back of the net and are not scoring at the pace most expect them to.

Goaltending and defense are still issues in Edmonton. Unfortunately, they rank just 20th in goals against. Killing penalties has been a chore for the Oilers, as they rank last in the league in penalty kills. Stuart Skinner likely gets the start and comes in with a record of 5-5-1 with a 3.22 goals-against average and a save percentage of .881. Ultimately, he has struggled against the Leafs, going 2-2 with a 4.13 goals-against average and a save percentage of .870 against them.

The Oilers will cover the spread if McDavid and Draisaitl can set the pace and set up scoring chances for Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins while also putting pressure on the Toronto net. Then, they must prevent the Leafs from getting too many chances.

Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Leafs are playing well enough to be in a playoff spot. However, they are still not at full strength and won’t be for this game, as Austin Matthews will not play in this battle in Toronto.

It has affected this offense as they rank 13th in goals and 15th in assists. Furthermore, they have been inconsistent with the extra-man attack, as they are 14th in power-play percentage.

With Matthews out, Mitchell Marner leads this offense. He has tallied five goals and 17 assists over 18 games, including two powerplay markers. William Nylander has been good, with 12 goals, eight assists, and four powerplay conversions. Meanwhile, John Tavares has delivered with nine goals and seven assists over 17 contests.

Defense and goaltending have been better but still inconsistent. Ultimately, they rank 10th in goals against. The Leafs have been strong on the penalty kill, ranking sixth in killing off powerplays. John Woll and Anthony Stolarz have both shared the net, and either can get the start in this one.

The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if they can spring forward and get some chances on the powerplay. Then, they must avoid taking penalties and giving McDavid and Draisaitl too many chances.

Final Oilers-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

The Oilers are 5-12 against the spread, while the Maple Leafs are 11-7. Moreover, the Oilers are 4-3 against the spread on the road, while the Leafs are 7-3 against the odds. The Oilers have struggled to score consistently, as the over is just 5-10-2 in games they have played, while the Leafs have found similar issues, as the over is 6-10-2. Lastly, the Oilers have struggled to score on the road, as the over is just 2-4-1, while the Leafs have stumbled to score at home, with the over being 2-7-1.

If Matthews were playing, this would be an easy pick for the Leafs. However, they are a different team without him in the lineup. Therefore, expect the Oilers to rise up and challenge the Leafs, covering the spread on the road.

Final Oilers-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Edmonton Oilers: -1.5 (+172)

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