4 Nations rosters analysis: Snubs, team outlooks, and more

The wait is over.

Management teams for Canada, the United States, Sweden, and Finland unveiled their 23-man rosters Wednesday for February's 4 Nations Face-Off.

Below, we present each country's projected lineup, discuss a few notable snubs, and provide an overview of team-level strengths and weaknesses.

Canada 🇨🇦

Notable snubs: Noah Dobson, Drew Doughty, Logan Thompson

Bennett and Jarvis are the only modest surprises up front. While there's a litany of forwards Canada could've chosen instead - including Mark Scheifele, Zach Hyman, and Carter Verhaeghe - there are no particularly stunning snubs.

The same can't be said for the blue line, where general manager Don Sweeney went slightly off the board. Parayko was always on our radar, but Sanheim, admittedly, wasn't. He probably should've been, though, considering he's logging huge minutes in Philadelphia this season and brings the requisite size and stability needed of a depth defender.

But Dobson also checks those boxes and is coming off a season in which he finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting. Perhaps management preferred Sanheim's left-handedness?

Excluding Doughty is justifiable as he recovers from a fractured ankle, but we still thought Canada might call his name anyway since he projects to be ready in time for the tournament.

Thompson, meanwhile, is the best Canadian goalie this season by virtue of goals saved above expected, per Evolving-Hockey. Binnington and Hill have the championship pedigree, but what does Montembeault have over Thompson - or Cam Talbot - for that matter?

Team outlook: Canada boasts unparalleled star power with McDavid and MacKinnon up front and Makar on the back end. Those are arguably three of the five best players on the planet - and the mega-star trio has plenty of support.

The Canadians are stacked at forward. All-timer Crosby will likely center the second line while elite NHLers like Point, Marner, and Stone could very well occupy bottom-six roles at even strength. Bennett, Hagel, Konency, and Jarvis are pest types who can be moved up and down the lineup with ease.

The blue line is very good - though not quite as impressive as the defense corps for USA and Sweden. Five of Canada's seven defensemen have won the Stanley Cup. Four are 6-foot-2 or taller and weigh at least 200 pounds.

Goaltending is, unsurprisingly, the elephant in the room with this squad. With so many premier skaters, maybe the netminders will be well-insulated and deemed a non-factor. Or, maybe the opposite unfolds and Canada's tournament is tanked by unreliable goaltending.

United States 🇺🇸

Notable snubs: Tage Thompson, Jason Robertson, Jake Sanderson

Cole Caufield leads all American NHLers in goals with 16 in 25 games. Thompson is first in the nation in goals per game, with 13 in 20 or 0.65 per game. Neither player made the final cut, which is a risky move by Team USA.

That said, there's a reasonable case for passing on Caufield. He doesn't bring much to the table beyond scoring, and the U.S. has a ton of quality forwards.

Thompson, on the other hand, is the biggest snub among the four rosters announced Wednesday. The ultra-skilled 6-foot-6 sniper is one of the NHL's unicorns, regardless of nationality. He's clutch, responsible defensively, can line up at center or wing, and is absolutely dynamite on the power play.

If USA struggles to score, we'll know why. They overthought this one.

Robertson was a near lock ahead of the season but two months on is still searching for his "A" game. Clayton Keller is another fringe guy passed over.

Sanderson's stock has been rising. However, it appears Hanifin - five years older and a Cup winner - beat him for that last left defenseman spot.

Team outlook: There's no question that, on paper, the Americans boast the most talented roster, top to bottom. It should be their tournament to lose.

They don't possess the same caliber of high-end forwards as Canada, but the depth is on par. The back end is truly special with dynamic offensive blue-liners like Hughes and Fox perfectly complementing defensive stalwarts McAvoy and Slavin. And the goaltending is unquestionably a major strength with Hellebuyck vying for his second straight Vezina Trophy.

But if there's one thing to nitpick from Team USA, it's the intangibles. There's no obvious captain for the Americans like there is with Canada (Crosby), Sweden (Hedman), or Finland (Barkov). Eichel, Guentzel, and Matthew Tkachuk are the only players on the team with Cup rings. In comparison, 15 of Canada's players have won a Cup. It's very possible none of this matters, but again, we're nitpicking at what's otherwise a pretty flawless roster.

Sweden 🇸🇪

Notable snubs: Mikael Backlund, William Eklund, Hampus Lindholm

Backlund is the most surprising omission from Team Sweden as a strong defensive player and respected veteran leader. He could've easily stepped into the lineup in a depth role and not hurt the team with a costly mistake.

Eklund's absence isn't completely shocking, but it is eyebrow-raising. His small stature and inexperience likely kept him off the team (though his 23 points are more than Arvidsson and Nyquist have combined for this season).

Lindholm is easily the best Swedish player left off the team, but his exclusion is more of a byproduct of the nation's depth on defense. A great defender was bound to get the short end of the stick, and it just so happened to be him.

Team outlook: Sweden's performance in this tournament will be strongly tied to its blue line and how much influence it has on the outcome of each game.

Hedman is the country's best player and, realistically, its only top-tier superstar. Dahlin, Forsling, Brodin, and Ekholm are all excellent defenders who can theoretically keep up with the lethal forwards out of Canada and the States. The two righties, Karlsson and Andersson, offer offensive punch.

The forward group is fairly deep but ultimately unremarkable in comparison to the North American squads. Part of the problem is that three key creators - Pettersson, Forsberg, and Zibanejad - have underwhelmed offensively this season. Will they be at the peak of their powers come February? Nylander, Bratt, Kempe, and Raymond can't be expected to carry the offense alone.

Sweden shouldn't have any issues in goal - three solid options.

Finland 🇫🇮

Notable snubs: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Henri Jokiharju

Given Finland's shallow talent pool, "snub" might be a strong word here.

Nevertheless, Kotkaniemi - who can play both center and the wing - would have provided a level of versatility Armia can't provide. The former Canadiens teammates have similar stat lines in 2024-25 - 13 points in 25 games for the 24-year-old Kotkaniemi and 10 points in 25 games for the 31-year-old Armia.

Jokiharju's exclusion is somewhat surprising seeing as only seven Finnish defensemen have played more than five games this year, and he's one of them. His roster spot went to Maple Leaf Hakanpaa (two games, currently on injured reserve). That can't feel great for the Sabres blue-liner.

Team outlook: Finland is going to have to win ugly to have any chance at this event. Its most surprising selections - Armia and Hakanpaa - reflect management's awareness that the team needs size and physicality to overcome its shortcomings. They will have to outwork the opposition.

The glaring weakness is on defense. Heiskanen is a stud, but he's the only offensive threat from the back end. The rest, though, are at least big, tough, and physical. If head coach Antti Pennanen's message gets through, that playing style could cause upsets in a short tournament, especially with decent firepower up front, and a goalie in Saros who's capable of stealing games.

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