Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
They say Father Time is undefeated.
As in life, aging is inevitable in hockey. When and how long it takes depends on the player. Genetics, commitment to fitness, and the good fortune of avoiding injuries can buy significant runway. Careful coaching deployment and strong supporting casts can help blur reality for a while too. But rare is the athlete who retires before their skills erode.
Today, we’re focusing on recently elite talents that appear to be fading… fast. If we praise the game’s best on the way up, then being honest about their descent is only fair. We’ll hear the cases of four respected but sinking stars: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; Mika Zibanejad; Steven Stamkos; and Elias Lindholm.
The goal? To determine whether Father Time is ready to drag them to irrelevance or offer a sip from the Fountain of Youth.
Before we begin, here’s what each forward has in common to be brought to court today in front of our presiding judge, Father Time:
Each of the four cases on the docket is going to be assessed a concern level on a five-point scale. Or five-hourglass scale, that is. A single hourglass (⌛) leaves the most hope for a recovery… while the dreaded five hourglasses (⌛⌛⌛⌛⌛) screams that it’s time to panic, for Father Time’s icy grip looks irreversible.
It’s important to acknowledge that — like every athlete in history showing signs of decline — each player has pleaded not guilty at their arraignment.
Age: 31
Contract: Year 4 of 8 ($5.1 Million AAV)
The Evidence: 12-goal, 41-point pace
The Exhibit: Nugent-Hopkins has fallen on hard times offensively. His annual 82-game point pace has plummeted from 104 points to 69 points to his current 41-point pace. Worse yet, the three players he’s shared the ice most with at 5-on-5 this season are Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Evan Bouchard.
The Prosecution: While the baby-faced career Oiler seems forever young, he quietly has a lot of miles on his slender frame. Including playoffs, The Nuge is approaching 1,000 career games in what is somehow his 14th NHL season. He’s firing his fewest shots on goal (2.1 per game) since he was 22 years old. In Edmonton’s playoff run, Nugent-Hopkins also faded badly down the stretch — just one primary point at even-strength in the Oilers’ final 14 games.
The Defense: There’s an argument that Nugent-Hopkins is not in decline but rather his output has always been inconsistent and tied to the Oilers’ power play. Two years after setting the modern NHL power play record (32.4%), the team is near the bottom of the league in opportunities and is converting below league average. In 2022-23, Nuge had a stunning 53 power play points — this year, it’s zero goals and four assists with the man advantage.
Has Father Time arrived?: ⌛⌛⌛… RNH has had down years before and bounced back. He’s a low-maintenance Swiss army knife at a modest cap hit. But his declining numbers are not just power play woes or puck luck. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and struggling in his minutes away from McDavid. Father Time assigns three months probation to get his game in order quickly — or face the same sentencing guidelines as teammate Jeff Skinner.
Age: 31
Contract: Year 3 of 8 ($8.5 Million AAV)
The Evidence: 5 goals in 27 games
The Exhibit: Zibanejad may have been the most underappreciated forward in the NHL the last half-decade. He quietly averaged 35 goals and 83 points per 82 games across the last six seasons. This year? His scoring touch has vanished — he’s on pace for 15 goals.
The Prosecution: With Zibanejad on the ice, the fragile Rangers have been outscored 21-12 at 5-on-5. He’s struggling to get two shots on goal per night and has one lonely power play goal. Peter Laviolette dialed back Zibanejad’s minutes accordingly. As haphazard as hit totals can be, the sturdy Swede has just five after averaging 62 the last three seasons. Can the court stenographer please read that back?
The Defense: His finish and on-ice results may be hurting, but Zibanejad has continued to set up goals at his usual rate. With 11 primary assists, he’s been able to contribute offensively. With five points in his past five games, there’s hope that the talented center is finding his footing and that he can be a cog in resurrecting a dysfunctional group on Broadway.
Has Father Time arrived?: ⌛⌛ … Flirting with 40 goals or 90 points again might be a stretch. But the combination of his public confidence issues, struggling linemate Chris Kreider, and internal distractions leave reason to believe this is more a hopeless couple of months than a hopeless future. Father Time is awarding leniency given extenuating circumstances. He’s released to the custody of Chris Drury, who would never misrepresent a respected team leader.
Age: 34
Contract: Year 1 of 4 ($8 Million AAV)
The Evidence: 4 even-strength points in 28 games
The Exhibit: Is it weird that Julien BriseBois submitted this exhibit without being asked? Jokes aside, Stamkos’ recent slide has been a few years in the making — his 5-on-5 point rate dropped a nasty 41% over his last three years in Tampa. Away from the vaunted Lightning power play in Nashville, he’s exposed.
The Prosecution: A search warrant for Stamkos’ stick collection at even-strength found no evidence of contributing. Despite favorable offensive zone starts and a willingness to fire more than five shot attempts per game, the beloved sniper is struggling. No, he won’t finish the season shooting 3% at 5-on-5. But his shots are down, his individual expected goals are down, and his assists are down. This is more than a pokey start after changing teams in Season 17.
The Defense: The defense calls expert witness Alex Ovechkin to the stand. [Court gasps]. Now, Mr. Ovechkin, is it true that less than a year ago — after eight goals in your first 43 games — you were written off as an old, one-dimensional, power play specialist? Yes, my dreams of the all-time goals record were laughed at. And you managed an incomprehensible 38 goals in 54 games afterward? Correct. The defense rests.
Has Father Time arrived?: ⌛⌛⌛⌛ 1/2 … Stacked teammates in Tampa masked a lot of what was happening under the hood. Stamkos will turn 35 in February and there’s no getting around it — Father Time is buying real estate in Tennessee. I didn’t have the heart to give him the full five hourglasses because players of his immense talent can find ways to reinvent themselves. But it’s looking grim by every measure.
The #GoBolts handling of Stamkos is ruthless but shrewd given the cap & Father Time.
— Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey) July 1, 2024
Lost in the Stammer convo is how historically great a scorer he's been — the #4 era-adjusted sniper of all-time (800+ GP).
Means little in 2024 & beyond but what a special career to date 👏 pic.twitter.com/IwH4NjmPlU
Age: 30
Contract: Year 1 of 7 ($7.8 Million AAV)
Evidence: 3 goals in 30 games
The Exhibit: Lindholm is neither registering nor attempting shots on goal. His per-game shooting rates are his lowest since he was a 19-year-old rookie playing four fewer minutes per night. Predictably, he’s not scoring either — three goals through mid-December. Woof. The Swede’s offensive game has completely disappeared over the last few seasons.
The Prosecution: While Jim Montgomery refused to take the stand under oath, there’s no doubt that the silent start from his dreamy free agent center was a factor in the coach’s November dismissal. While Boston wasn’t expecting the 42-goal, plus-61 player from Calgary three years ago, they didn’t spend $54 million for no offense and average defensive contributions. Lindholm has been a more expensive Pavel Zacha — not the David Krejci of a new Bruins’ generation like Don Sweeney had hoped.
The Defense: Lindholm has been serviceable defensively. His on-ice expected goals against matches the team’s overall rate. He’s positive on faceoffs, as usual. Playing on three teams in just a few months, Lindholm may need more time to fit into an uninspiring Boston squad also desperately seeking an identity.
Has Father Time arrived?: ⌛⌛⌛⌛ … There’s nothing to suggest Lindholm’s ready to break out. He’s effectively been out of the action in Boston — just a guy on the roster skating around. While the trade and free agency markets overpriced him in 2024, it’s clear Lindholm’s been steadily dipping since Calgary started shedding talent a few seasons ago. With six-and-a-half years left on his deal, the Bruins asked the court for a mistrial. It was denied.
👨🏻⚖️ Court is now adjourned.
Follow @AdjustedHockey; visit www.adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick
Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 13 hours ago
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