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Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Originally posted on The Score

Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers are sharing observations throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back for daily analysis. Tap to see the upcoming schedule.

Thursday, May 1

Game 6 pressure index

Luke Schmidt / NHL / Getty Images

The NHL's Game 6 slate - four are happening Thursday night, while the Jets and Blues own the spotlight Friday - should provide spectacular drama.

Besides the Maple Leafs' core players, who hope to improve to 2-13 in closeout situations, these are some of the protagonists who face pressure to perform.

Drake Batherson: In his turbulent playoff debut, Batherson's recorded two points, coughed up the puck ahead of a losing goal, and taken four stick penalties, including a double minor in overtime. Usually, he's a source of stability for the Senators, having played all 82 games for three consecutive seasons while averaging 65 points. Burying a quality chance - he's generated a fair share in the series - would aid Ottawa's pursuit of a Game 7 miracle.

Kirill Kaprizov: Asking Kaprizov to raise his game to some higher level would be ridiculous. He's had an excellent series against the Golden Knights with five goals, nine points, zero scoreless games, and a slew of highlight plays. He's combined with linemate Matt Boldy to tally 10 of 17 Wild goals (59%) and 16 of 42 Wild points (38%). Kaprizov carries the team. Even one quiet night from him would spell elimination.

Cale Makar: Makar scored 30 goals as a defenseman by wiring the puck from the point and getting it to more fertile scoring areas. The bulk of the Avalanche superstar's goals (18) came from extremely or somewhat dangerous areas of the offensive zone, according to NHL EDGE. But he's taken zero high-danger slot shots in the playoffs and Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has stoned all of his distant attempts while limiting Makar to two measly power-play assists.

Jim Hiller: The Kings-Oilers series shifted when Hiller's unsuccessful challenge for goaltender interference instantly led to a backbreaking goal. L.A.'s late collapses highlighted how the coach was barely playing depth players and fatiguing his stars. The Kings need to make a stand on the road to avoid the deepest cut of all: a fourth straight series loss to Edmonton after entering as the favorite and wasting a two-win lead.

Connor Hellebuyck: Hellebuyck might become the first goalie since Carey Price in 2015 to complete the Hart-Vezina Trophy double. His playoff save percentage (.822 against the Blues) somehow keeps worsening. He's made one quality start in five tries, and the Jets managed other wins by holding St. Louis to fewer than 20 shots. Without Mark Scheifele on the road in Game 6, Hellebuyck needs to be a pillar for Winnipeg, not a liability. - Nick Faris

Deadline trade conditions check-in

Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

The Panthers defeating the Lightning 6-3 on Wednesday to advance to the second round was welcome news to Don Sweeney. The Bruins general manager was widely criticized at the trade deadline for dealing Brad Marchand to the Panthers in exchange for only one draft pick.

Florida's series victory means Boston is one step closer to getting a better pick from its Atlantic Division rival.

Marchand, a Bruins icon, was sent to Florida with half of his $6.125-million salary for a conditional 2027 second-round selection. That second is bumped up to a 2027 or 2028 first if the Panthers win two playoff series and Marchand - a pending unrestricted free agent who was injured at the time of the trade - appears in 50% of Florida's playoff games.

Here are two other notable conditions hanging in the balance:

Brian Dumoulin trade: Courtesy of New Jersey, Anaheim receives either Edmonton's or Winnipeg's 2025 second-rounder - whichever pick is higher. The Oilers are up 3-2 over the Kings and the Jets are up 3-2 over the Blues.

Brock Nelson trade: The Islanders receive a 2028 third-round pick if the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup and Nelson plays 50% of Colorado's playoff games. The Avs are down 3-2 to the Stars. - John Matisz

Leafs promote Pacioretty

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube appears to be shuffling the deck a bit ahead of Game 6 against the Senators.

Max Pacioretty was promoted to the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander during Thursday's morning skate, while Pontus Holmberg was bumped down to the bottom six between Max Domi and Bobby McMann. Domi was previously centering McMann and Pacioretty. Here's the new look, with the first and fourth lines remaining untouched:

LW C RW Knies Matthews Marner Pacioretty Tavares Nylander McMann Holmberg Domi Lorentz Laughton Jarnkrok

Pacioretty was the most common left-winger for Tavares and Nylander during the regular season. The trio only controlled 45.3% of the expected goals in 179 five-on-five minutes but generated 59.2% of the actual goals, per Evolving-Hockey.

Though he certainly has more offensive ability than Holmberg, Pacioretty hasn't made much an impact since entering the lineup in Game 3, outside of a few big hits. It's fair to wonder if the 36-year-old can keep up with the pace of the playoffs - especially higher in the lineup - after missing the final 27 games of the regular season due to injury.

Pacioretty has 25 goals in 81 career playoff games, though. Berube is leaning on experience - at least to start the game. Don't be surprised to see him get the blender out if Pacioretty fails to provide Tavares and Nylander with a necessary spark. - Josh Wegman

Sens need to score first

Kevin Sousa / NHL / Getty Images

Colleague John Matisz previewed Thursday's big Battle of Ontario confrontation from the Toronto perspective. One simple key to victory for Ottawa is getting on the board first.

The Senators were 35-6-0 in the regular season when they scored the opening goal and 10-24-7 when the opponent did. That was the league's most extreme split. Scoring first boosts a young group's confidence, lets Ottawa dictate the tempo, signals goalie Linus Ullmark settled into the game, and deadens the impulse to blow the zone to chase offense or grip the stick if it doesn't come.

After taking leads, the Sens got Games 3 and 4 to overtime and cemented a Game 5 shutout. Four Ottawa shooters - Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson, and Thomas Chabot - beat Anthony Stolarz in those matchups by floating pucks over the Toronto goalie's shoulders. Besides Stutzle's power-play rip, none of those shots had a high velocity, but they were accurately feathered past a screen or through layers of traffic to the top corner. - Nick Faris

Panthers are Kucherov's kryptonite

Mark LoMoglio / NHL / Getty Images

The road to the Stanley Cup runs through the defending champions. The Panthers established that by stuffing Nikita Kucherov in a locker for a second straight year.

The Lightning superstar is a proven championship performer, but his production spiraled in Florida's back-to-back Round 1 triumphs. Kucherov had no goals in either matchup. He managed four assists in the series that Florida sewed up Wednesday with a 6-3 win. A team that lets him score at will in the regular season - Kucherov has 21 goals and 47 points in 38 career showdowns - is the one he can’t dissect in the playoffs anymore.

Kucherov is a magical playmaker and the NHL's premier power-play scorer, but Tampa Bay's PP went 2-for-18 and consistently failed to punish Panthers penalties. Florida's smothering defense held him to one point across the Lightning's four losses and blocked half of his 28 shot attempts in the series. A scoring threat when the Bolts rampaged to Cup Finals, Kucherov has one playoff goal with a 2.7% shooting percentage since 2023.

Tampa was disjointed in the Battle of Florida. Brandon Hagel missed two games, Oliver Bjorkstrand never returned from injury, the Panthers got way more depth scoring, and Andrei Vasilevskiy dropped another duel to Sergei Bobrovsky. The Lightning's shiny goal differential (plus-75 in the regular season) suggested they were a sleeping juggernaut. Instead, the champs gave them the business. - Nick Faris

Stat leaders through Game 5

Harry How / Getty Images

Every playoff team pushed its matchup to five games. Game 6 looms in five competitive series. As crunch time arrives in Round 1, here's an update on the current points leaderboard.

Team Player G A PTS LA Adrian Kempe 4 6 10 EDM Leon Draisaitl 3 7 10 EDM Connor McDavid 2 8 10 MIN Kirill Kaprizov 5 4 9 WSH Dylan Strome 2 7 9 STL Cam Fowler 1 8 9 WPG Kyle Connor 4 4 8 CAR Sebastian Aho 3 5 8 LA Anze Kopitar 1 7 8 COL Nathan MacKinnon 5 2 7 MIN Matt Boldy 5 2 7 EDM Evan Bouchard 4 3 7

Kempe's sizzling pace cooled as the Kings lost their series lead, but he still fronts the pack alongside Draisaitl and McDavid. Kaprizov and Boldy dragged the Wild to Game 6 against the heavily favored Golden Knights. A pair of top playmaking centers, Aho and Strome, can chill on the couch before squaring off in the next round.

MacKinnon has put the most shots on net (31). Marcus Foligno's 38 hits edge Zach Hyman's 36. Brian Dumoulin claimed the time-on-ice lead (29:21) as the Devils played into a couple of double overtimes. The top regular faceoff taker is Max Domi (64.9%), though Nico Hischier's 89 won draws are 20 more than the next guy. Jake Walman has the best plus-minus (+8), while Kempe and the eliminated Brendan Gallagher tail the entire field (-7). - Nick Faris

Namestnikov steps up in key moment

Darcy Finley / National Hockey League / Getty

It'd been 20 games since Vladislav Namestnikov scored a goal entering Wednesday's pivotal Game 5 in Winnipeg. Mark Scheifele's first-period injury could've spelled doom for a Jets team in desperate need of a win on home ice, but instead, it was the versatile veteran who came through in the second period.

After assisting on Dylan DeMelo's go-ahead tally, Namestnikov buried his first goal since March 11 to give Winnipeg insurance entering the third period. Namestnikov's marker stood as the eventual game-winner as the Presidents' Trophy winners moved one victory from the second round. It was Namestnikov's first two points of the series.

The Jets' lack of center depth behind Scheifele has been a consistent criticism despite the team's immense regular-season success. It'll be an uphill battle for Winnipeg if Scheifele misses more time, but for Game 5, Namestnikov was there to fill the void and come up clutch in key moments. - Kyle Cushman

Ousted Habs can hold head high

Scott Taetsch / Getty Images

Montreal wanted to play meaningful hockey down the stretch this season.

Mission accomplished, and then some.

The Canadiens put up a respectable fight against the top-seeded Capitals before being eliminated with a 4-1 Game 5 loss in Washington on Wednesday. The group gained valuable experience in the process.

Really, 2024-25 was a season of non-stop growth in Montreal.

Captain Nick Suzuki, a respected two-way center, leveled up his offensive game en route to a career-high 87 points. Go-to sniper Cole Caufield set a personal best with 37 goals. Dazzling defenseman Lane Hutson exceeded expectations and will probably claim the Calder Trophy. Electric winger Ivan Demidov came over from Russia late in the year but sooner than expected overall, and he showed well in seven games. A third notable rookie, Jakub Dobes, joined Samuel Montembeault as the goalies of the present and future.

There were other positive developments, but we'll stop there for now.

Habs players hugged teary-eyed teammate David Savard extra tight Wednesday. The 34-year-old defenseman is retiring following nearly 900 NHL games. He was the oldest player on an extremely young roster. - John Matisz

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Originally posted on The Score

Published: 4 weeks ago

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