Exploring if Tristan Jarry would be a fit with the Edmonton Oilers

Unless you have been living on a remote island for the past few years, you are well aware that the Edmonton Oilers have a goaltending problem.

Stuart Skinner has had his moments, such as when he stopped 81 of 86 shots over three games in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final to help the Oilers erase a 3-0 series deficit. But Skinner has been too inconsistent for a team that does not have unlimited chances to win with captain Connor McDavid, who re-signed in October for only two years.

One goaltender who has been linked to the Oilers is Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry, who just so happens to be the winningest goaltender in the history of the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings. (Jarry and the Penguins host the Oilers next Tuesday.)

But Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman appeared to throw cold water on a potential trade when he reported on Hockey Night in Canada last Saturday that there is “legitimate Edmonton interest in Jarry, but I think it’s extremely complicated and might not be possible.” Friedman said that the Penguins are unwilling to retain any of Jarry’s $5.375 million cap hit through 2028 and that the Oilers’ preference would be to pair Jarry with Skinner, as opposed to swapping them in a deal.

“It happens with every player,” Jarry told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last week. “Every player has rumours around them. You just have to keep playing your game. There’s nothing you can do. My job is with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and that’s who I’m happy to be playing for.”

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Jarry, whom the Penguins waived last season, has played a role in making them surprisingly competitive this season. He has saved 11.5 goals above expected behind a generous defence — 15th most among the 53 goaltenders who have played a minimum of 10 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 3.28 expected goals against per 60 minutes with Jarry in net, which is sixth most in the group of qualified goaltenders. By comparison, Skinner ranks 25th in GSAE (8.29) and 36th in expected goals against while on ice per 60 (3.05).

Since returning from a two-month stint in the AHL last season, Jarry has gone 17-6-3 with a 2.68 goals-against average and .908 save percentage.

“I don’t think you can ever sit back,” Jarry told the Post-Gazette. “Going to (AHL) Wilkes-Barre, I had a choice. I could pack it in or double down and keep going. I wanted to prove to everyone that I could do this and be that person. I’m just continuing to try and be the best version of myself.”

Last month, Friedman reported that the Oilers will not make a “lateral move” at the position. Although Jarry has performed noticeably better than Skinner this season, their overall bodies of work are quite similar.

Since Skinner took over as the Oilers’ starter in 2022-23, he has made 97 quality starts in 177 tries during the regular season, meaning he has saved more goals than expected in 54.8 per cent of his starts. That rate ranks 29th out of 66 goaltenders who have started at least 50 games over the past three-plus seasons. Jarry is behind Skinner at 36th with a quality-start rate of 52.8 per cent over that span (75/142).

Skinner’s quality-start rate drops to 46 per cent (23/50) in the playoffs, which ranks 12th out of 17 goaltenders who have made at least 10 playoff starts since 2023. Jarry, meanwhile, has not appeared in the post-season since 2022.

Solely based on their performances this season, Jarry would be an upgrade over Skinner. But Jarry, who turns 31 in April and makes nearly $3 million more than Skinner annually, also has a reputation for being inconsistent (and injury prone). He probably is not worth the amount of “roster surgery,” as Friedman described it last weekend, that the Oilers would have to undergo to make such a trade possible.

The problem for the Oilers is that their outside options are extremely limited because of their salary structure. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos linked Edmonton to St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington last month, but he makes $6 million per year through next season (and has a lower quality-start rate than Skinner this season at 44.4 per cent).

For now, the best the Oilers can probably hope for is improved play from Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard.

“They’ve showed a lot of maturity,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch told reporters. “They’ve put aside all the noise. There’s been a lot of noise, and a lot of it’s been unfair. You look at the amount of the games they’ve won and how well they’ve played at crucial times of the year. Have they been outstanding every single game? No. But their body of work has been very solid.”

All stats via Sportlogiq