NHL weekend betting guide: Should bettors care about Connor Bedard?

The NHL got a little more interesting with Connor Bedard's return on Thursday night against the Penguins, but should his presence matter to bettors?

Given that he played just four shifts before breaking his jaw on Jan. 5 in New Jersey, Bedard essentially missed 15 of Chicago's 53 games. However, he continues to lead the team with 33 points and remains the Calder Trophy favorite.

It's unusual, but the future of the Blackhawks is also the present. The betting market docked Chicago around 10% in implied win probability (IWP) without Bedard. For example, in a game where they have a 40% chance to win (+150 on the moneyline) with Bedard, the Blackhawks might be given a 30% implied win probability (+233) without him.

On Wednesday night, 24 hours ahead of the Penguins-Blackhawks game, Chicago was widely available at +185 (35% IWP). After the return of Bedard was made official on Thursday afternoon, the Blackhawks' moneyline settled at +160 (38.5%). That 3.5% move could be considered surprisingly modest, but there's a difference between losing Bedard's production amidst a stellar rookie campaign and getting him back for his first action in six weeks. Expectations that he wouldn't be in midseason form were understandable, and oddsmakers likely opened the Blackhawks a few percentage points short, aware that they might see some money on the home underdog once it was confirmed Bedard was back.

Of course, bettors can only get so excited about the Blackhawks - with or without Bedard.

With a 3-12 (20%) record on the moneyline and only one regulation win in Bedard's absence, the 10% change in valuation we mentioned earlier might be considered too low. However, it's not like the Blackhawks set the world on fire before Bedard got hurt. They won just 28.9% of their games (11-27 on the moneyline). A drop in win percentage of 8.9% suggests that valuation was about right.

Here's a look at the Blackhawks' advanced metrics at even strength before Bedard's injury, and then in the 15 games they played without him:

GAMES GOALS/GM XG% HDC% HDC/GM HDC CONV.% With Bedard 2.31 40.9 37.8 7.44 14.1 W/O Bedard 1.40 41.9 40.9 8.5 7.7

The Blackhawks maintained their (poor) expected goals share (XG%) and improved their high-danger chance share (HDC%). But without Bedard, their ratio of converting those quality chances went way down.

The league average in converting high-danger chances is 12.5%, so Bedard's presence makes Chicago better than average at converting scoring chances. His absence was felt on the power play, as the Hawks went from converting 14.1% of their HDC on the man-advantage to scoring just twice on 28 HDC created without Bedard.

For bettors, the question of whether we should be more interested in backing the Blackhawks now that Bedard is back is an interesting one. According to Moneypuck.com, Bedard leads Chicago in XG per 60 minutes at even strength, but he's only tied for 77th (with Connor McDavid at 0.87) in the NHL. Ideally, we'd like to see him have more of an effect on driving play in general, even if we know his sniper skills make the Hawks more dangerous when he's on the ice.

While the star rookie chipped in an assist in Thursday's 4-1 loss, his presence meant little overall. Pittsburgh generated 65% of the expected goal share at even strength and had significantly more high-danger chances than Chicago.

The Blackhawks may be better with Bedard, but unless you're getting an unbelievable price on Chicago, you're still better off leaving them off your card on a nightly basis.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET Feb. 16 CAR@ARI 56.7/43.3 CAR -126/ARI +155 Feb. 17 LAK@BOS 50.5/49.5 LAK +108/BOS +113 EDM@DAL 49.5/50.5 EDM +113/DAL +108 OTT@CHI 56.0/44.0 OTT -122/CHI +150 DET@CGY 41.9/58.1 DET +164/CGY -133 NSH@STL 50.3/49.7 NSH +109/STL +112 BUF@MIN 46.3/53.7 BUF +136/MIN -111 FLA@TB 55.4/44.6 FLA -119/TB +146 ANA@TOR 40.8/59.2 ANA +172/TOR -139 WSH@MTL 50.5/49.5 WSH +108/MTL +113 PHI@NJD 46.2/53.8 PHI +137/NJD -112 WPG@VAN 48.6/51.4 WPG +117/VAN +104 CAR@VGK 52.7/47.3 CAR -107/VGK +131 CBJ@SJS 49.8/50.2 CBJ +111/SJS +110 Feb. 18 NYR@NYI 50.7/49.3 NYR +107/NYI +114 LAK@PIT 43.5/56.5 LAK +153/PIT -125 ARI@COL 38.6/61.4 ARI +189/COL -153 Feb. 19* ANA@BUF 39.0/61.0 ANA +186/BUF -150 TOR@STL 49.3/50.7 TOR +114/STL +107 DAL@BOS 50.3/49.7 DAL +109/BOS +112 VAN@MIN 45.2/54.8 VAN +143/MIN -116 DET@SEA 41.8/58.2 DET +165/SEA -134 EDM@ARI 63.8/36.2 EDM -169/ARI +210 WPG@CGY 47.3/52.7 WPG +131/CGY -107 VGK@SJS 53.5/46.5 VGK -111/SJS +135 OTT@TB 48.5/51.5 OTT +118/TB +104 CHI@CAR 30.6/69.4 CHI +276/CAR -217

*Eight of 10 games on Monday start at or before 4 p.m., providing matinee action for those observing a holiday

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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