5 X-factors that may define 2024 NHL trade deadline

With only two sleeps until the NHL trade deadline, we hope the fun is just beginning.

Unlike last year, when all the biggest moves came weeks before the deadline, there's still a lot to be decided by March 8 at 3 p.m. ET.

Here are five X-factors that could define this season's action.

Jacob Markstrom's future 🔥

Will he stay or will he go?

No, seriously. Does anyone know what the future holds for Markstrom at this point? It's been a lot. Let's recap all of the rumblings surrounding his status so far.

First, the New Jersey Devils apparently tried to acquire him from the Calgary Flames in February, but it didn't pan out because of some combination of retention and package disagreements. Markstrom has two years remaining on his current deal with a $6-million cap hit and will have some say over what ends up happening thanks to his full no-move clause (at this point, it is unclear if Markstrom has been asked to waive it).

Next, Markstrom took aim at the Flames' front office, expressing frustration with how it's handling his situation. Then, a rumor cropped up from Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli that Calgary president of hockey operations Don Maloney nixed a trade that would have sent Markstrom to New Jersey.

Got all that? Good. There's more.

The Devils reportedly took another run at acquiring the veteran netminder last week. And we can see why. Markstrom owns a .912 save percentage on the season while ranking 11th among all goalies in goals saved above average (9.09) and second in goals saved above expected (33.76). New Jersey is hunting for a goaltender like that. None of the three goalies the team has used this season - Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid, and Nico Daws - own a positive value in either goals saved above average or goals saved above expected.

The Flames may package out Markstrom by the deadline, or they may wait until the offseason. If they do it sooner rather than later, though, they'd be gifting us with a juicy blockbuster of an in-season trade with playoff implications for both conferences. Markstrom would boost the Devils' chances of making the postseason in a crowded East, while his departure would be detrimental to the Flames' pursuit of a wild-card spot in the West.

GMs of (most) Canadian teams 🇨🇦

This deadline may just belong to teams north of the border.

Canadian squads have pulled off two of the biggest trades of the season so far. The Canucks brought in Elias Lindholm from the Flames - not to mention Nikita Zadorov in November, Patrik Allvin has been a busy bee - while Kevin Cheveldayoff added Sean Monahan to his Winnipeg Jets to kick off the Western Conference arms race. Allvin and Cheveldayoff probably aren't done adding, either, as both teams have performed far above expectations this season and have given their GMs a reason to go all-in.

Next, there's the Edmonton Oilers. After a catastrophic start to the season, they're back to looking like the Stanley Cup contenders we all believed they would be. Now, it's up to GM Ken Holland to reward his team's turnaround. Word is he's sniffing around for a forward and a defenseman, and with a little over $2 million in cap space at his disposal, it'll be interesting to see if he sticks to depth players or takes a big swing by moving some money out (we lean option No. 2).

We previously wrote that the Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't be a major player on March 8 thanks to their middling play, but their recent winning run may have changed how they'll approach the deadline. Toronto is getting consistent goaltending, depth scoring, and improved defending, which must be grabbing the attention of GM Brad Treliving. The executive already scooped up Ilya Lyubushkin, and he cryptically said he'd have to be "as creative as possible" to address his team's other needs. How much is he willing to give up to aid the Leafs' winning ways? Ex-GM Kyle Dubas went all-in at the deadline last season, limiting the assets Treliving has to work with.

Finally, it seems like every opposing GM is licking his chops at the chance to strip the Flames for parts. GM Craig Conroy has already moved out Zadorov, Lindholm, and Chris Tanev, but he owns two other top deadline targets in Markstrom and pending unrestricted free agent Noah Hanifin. Admirably, Calgary still has a fighting chance to make the playoffs, even if it's a long shot at best. As a result, all eyes will be on Conroy. Is he going to trade away all his assets in the name of the future, or will he strike a balance to try and keep the Flames competitive for the rest of the season? Food for thought: When he was promoted to GM in May, Conroy was asked about letting Johnny Gaudreau walk as a UFA in 2022. His answer? "I don't think I would let that happen again."

Mark Stone's health 🤕

The bad news: The Vegas Golden Knights may be without injured captain Stone for the rest of the regular season - and maybe the playoffs as well.

The good news: With Stone on long-term injured reserve, GM Kelly McCrimmon now has an extra $9.5 million to bolster his squad at the deadline. He's already brought in Anthony Mantha, but is that all he's got up his sleeve? We highly doubt it.

Let's flash back to last season, shall we? Stone missed the second half of the campaign because of a back injury, allowing Vegas to scoop up Ivan Barbashev at the deadline. He proved an incredible fit on the Golden Knights' top line and was a key performer in the playoffs, earning himself a five-year extension in the process. Stone returned for Game 1 of the postseason and in no way seemed hampered by his injury, chipping in with 11 goals and 24 points to help Vegas win the Stanley Cup.

Whew, we're getting a sense of deja vu already.

Fully replacing Stone won't be an easy feat, but luckily for McCrimmon, there are some big names out there. Jake Guentzel ($6-million cap hit) is definitely the flashiest forward on the table. He won't come cheap (more on that later), but adding someone of his ilk would go a long way toward helping Vegas earn home-ice advantage in the playoffs. There are other options, though, like Devils winger Tyler Toffoli ($4.25-million cap hit), Ottawa Senators veteran Vladimir Tarasenko ($5-million cap hit), or St. Louis Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8-million cap hit).

Go on, McCrimmon, throw that money around. This is Sin City, after all.

Jake Guentzel's price tag (and Kyle Dubas' patience) 💰

"Price tag" means a couple different things in this instance.

First, there's the cost of acquiring Guentzel. GM Dubas expressed a desire for the Pittsburgh Penguins to get younger during his midseason address, and moving out Guentzel would likely be his best chance at accomplishing that goal in short order. The 29-year-old pending UFA is an attractive option for contenders looking to bolster their top-six forward group and will thus come at a cost. A big cost. As in multiple first-rounders or a first-round pick plus top prospects or roster players, though apparently Dubas prefers prospects over picks. Dubas gave up quite a bit to acquire stud defenseman Erik Karlsson last offseason - including his first-round pick in this summer's draft - so this could be a way to recoup some assets.

Next, there's what it'd cost to extend Guentzel and if teams will be allowed to discuss an extension before giving up a boatload of goodies to acquire him. That'd change the kinds of squads that could realistically add him. The Oilers, for example, have upcoming extensions for Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid to think about, not to mention Connor Brown's $3.225-million performance bonus eating into next season's cap. What Guentzel is looking for in his next deal isn't exactly clear, but he's surely due for a raise over his current $6-million cap hit, and there are rumblings that his camp turned down the Penguins' offer of a six-year extension worth around $50 million. Further complicating things is Guentzel's 12-team no-trade list. Any squad willing to pay up, though, will be getting a proven winger who has twice cracked the 40-goal mark.

Dubas has preached a certain level of patience with the Penguins in the past given their pedigree, but as he said, Pittsburgh is "running out of time" to prove itself this season. If the executive allows his patience to run out, he just might be able to give his team a brighter future at the deadline.

Julien BriseBois' aggression (and wallet) ⚡

The Tampa Bay Lightning are missing an $8.5-million man on their blue line because of Mikhail Sergachev's truly devastating leg injury.

Wait ... do you hear that?

By god, that's BriseBois' music.

The Bolts GM is no stranger to being aggressive at this time of the year. He's moved out a grand total of six first-round picks over the last four trade deadlines. As a result, the Lightning's next selection in the first round won't come until 2026: They sent their 2024 first-rounder to the Chicago Blackhawks as part of the Brandon Hagel trade, while their 2025 first-rounder went to the Nashville Predators in the Tanner Jeannot swap.

That Jeannot deal, in particular, was downright hefty, seeing as BriseBois also sent out his 2024 second-round pick (not to mention THREE picks in 2023) to scoop up the forward. Because of the executive's recent in-your-face deadline strategy, the Lightning ranked 29th during The Athletic's most recent prospect pool rankings. Simply speaking, Tampa Bay doesn't have a wealth of attractive future assets to spend this deadline, meaning it'll be difficult for BriseBois to add an impactful piece to his aging squad despite his new-found cap space.

However, we've learned to never doubt BriseBois' ability to be active at the trade deadline. We can't see a realistic path for him to add a blue-liner like Noah Hanifin (even though Tampa Bay is reportedly his preferred destination), but we don't know what sort of tricks the GM has up his sleeve. BriseBois may need to plan his greatest trick yet to make the Bolts more relevant come playoff time.

(Analytics sources: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)

(Salary figures: CapFriendly)

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