Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl suited up for his 700th NHL game Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. There are no silver sticks presented for Game 700. His family won’t be flown in from Germany. And Draisaitl’s teammates won’t come up with a creative way to honor him in warmups.
But whether he realizes it or not, it might be the biggest milestone of his career.
At age 28, Draisaitl has passed the unofficial games played threshold for Hockey Hall of Fame induction for modern NHL skaters. Yes, he’s comfortably qualified for future membership — the first decade of his career has been that outstanding.
To some, this may border on absurd. Pump the brakes. This is only his 10th NHL season. He’s short of 1,000 games, 400 goals, and 900 points. He’s never played in the Stanley Cup Final. Do they let everybody in now? While it might seem that way some years, it won’t be the case with Draisaitl. Let’s dive in.
Seems light, right? Draisaitl isn’t Bobby Orr (657 career games) or Mario Lemieux (745 games at the time of his induction).
But two of the greatest players to ever lace up skates are hardly the standard. We called 700 games the unofficial threshold because there is no hard floor on games played. But it’s become an unwritten rule as far as the Selection Committee has been concerned. To illustrate, let’s check out the four NHL forwards elected in the last two decades after short careers.
Reminder: Draisaitl is only 28 years old. Yet, by raw numbers and trophy count, he fits right in with the full careers of the four Hall of Famers above. At the risk of jinxing the Oilers’ center, unlike Lindros, Forsberg, Bure, and Neely, he’s shown no signs of the early career injuries that ended their respective NHL days prematurely. In the last eight seasons, Draisatil has missed eight measly games. His attendance is 98.7% since his age-21 season and he has another potential decade of runway ahead of him.
So, while 700 or so games may not be your definition of a Hall of Fame career, it’s been defined that way by the Hall itself for two decades.
Yes, yes he is. In fact, great may be underselling his offensive gifts.
Take each NHL player that debuted since 1967. Adjust their career point production through age 28 to the scoring climate they played in. You get the following eye-popping list of iconic scorers.
Incredibly, Draisaitl’s era adjusted pace of 99 points per 82 games is 10th. That’s among every single player’s career body of work by age 28 — in nearly six decades of NHL hockey. A tick ahead of Bossy and Lafleur. Comfortably ahead of Yzerman and Sakic at the same age.
The only player above not inducted to the Hall of Fame or on cruise control toward future induction is underrated sniper Dany Heatley. Unlike most star talents, Heatley didn’t debut until his age-21 season after going the NCAA route. Between off-ice tragedy and a lost lockout season, ‘Heater’ had played only 507 games through age 28 and was showing signs of decline. So, Draisaitl’s full body of work and level of play at 28 are both much greater than Heatley’s by comparison.
But wait just a minute, you might be thinking. Where’s Connor McDavid on the list? You know, Leon’s bestie? Really fast guy? Wears #97?
McDavid is still 27. So, he hasn’t played through his age-28 season yet. He’ll be third on the list when he does. We know Draisaitl holds up among the greatest point producers in over a half-century. But naturally he stands out even more when compared to his contemporaries.
Among active players 28 and under, Draisaitl’s adjusted point production is second to McDavid’s. And only Auston Matthews (55 adjusted goals per year!), Pastrnak (43), and McDavid (43) score goals more efficiently. Amidst today’s sizzling Gen Z talent, the German-born Draisaitl has few peers offensively.
Being an all-world player that’s strong on faceoffs and sometimes deployed on the penalty kill, it’s easy to assume Draisaitl is defensively sound. He’s not.
For five years, his even-strength defense was in the bottom 10% of the NHL. Using JFresh Hockey‘s timeline card below, the red line at the bottom right shows how low Draisaitl has consistently ranked defensively. As his offensive impact skyrocketed to the top of the league over the years, his defensive impact has gone in the complete opposite direction.
Despite the indifferent defensive play, Draisaitl remains a stud overall. His offensive play-driving, power play impact, finishing, and primary point production are all elite. This remains true at age 28, even as he continuously faces stiff opposing competition nightly.
If adjusting to era or advanced measures are not your thing, we’ll reinforce why Draisaitl is already a Hall of Famer without looking beyond a box score. Here are some of his simplest feats:
Call it The McDavid Effect. Playing second fiddle to a generational talent leaves little air space for the understudy. Just ask Evgeni Malkin. Winning league MVP? Finishing 4th, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2nd in scoring over five consecutive years? Being a perennial top-10 forward for the better part of a decade? Even among Hall of Famers, very few have done the things Draisaitl has done.
By PPS, my Hall of Fame worthiness metric, Draisaitl was a qualified candidate before this season — he just needed to reach 700 games to support his credentials. Through 2022-23, PPS ranked Draisaitl the #42 forward of all-time. His PPS Player Card below shows a score of 283 against the modern forward standard of 235. Leon’s first 10 years suggest a spot in the Hall’s Inner Circle is possible.
With his individual place in history all but secured, where does Draisaitl go from here?
Right now, it’s a Stanley Cup ring that drives his Oilers, a franchise high on potential but short on deep playoff runs in the salary cap era. Even in a 32-team league, it’s an achievement long expected from his brilliant partnership with McDavid. Time will tell…
Game 700 is just a footnote in Leon Draisaitl’s long and decorated career. But it’s also the day he quietly punched his ticket to hockey immortality.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com
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Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 8 months ago
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