NHL weekday betting guide: What's a goal worth toward winning probability?

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We had some fun last week with the betting market's evaluation of players this season. Now it's time to do our math homework, since we should figure out what a goal is worth to a team's theoretical chances of winning.

Through March 10, an average of 6.12 goals have been scored per NHL game. As a result, if you were to practically set targets for your team as you sit down to watch them play, you'd pick two:

1. Score four goals
2. Allow fewer than three

If the average number of goals in a game is six, the frequency you win with four goals or by allowing two or fewer should be high. Look at the league-wide scoreboard on any given night to note how often 4-3, 4-2, and 3-2 final scores occur.

Skater valuations

If four goals should get you a win, each goal scored should be worth 25% towards an expected win, right? Sort of. Since getting to four goals is only half the battle, each goal is actually worth 12.5% towards an expected win.

Each player's valuation should be built on how likely they are to contribute to a goal. With 153 points last season, did Connor McDavid contribute towards 82 more goals than a replacement-level player would have? If you put an average center on the Oilers alongside Leon Draisaitl and on the power play, and they had a 71-point season, the answer is yes. At that point, McDavid's 12% valuation is fair.

If Auston Matthews scores 70 goals this season, he'll have singularly contributed 8.75 wins to the Maple Leafs, who are on pace for 47.4 wins this season. Is he worth 8.75 wins? No, because if Toronto had to replace his role (first line and power play) with a league-average player, that player (think a combination of Matthew Knies and Tyler Bertuzzi) could score 24 goals (three expected wins) of his own surrounded by the Leafs' remaining talent.

Matthews' goals alone could be credited for almost six wins per season. At $11.6 million in salary, Matthews' historic season may net Toronto one win per $2 million spent. In a less-than-shocking development: he's worth it. If everyone else could do that, a team would be a lock for 50 wins per year in this era of the nearly $100-million salary cap.

As an aside: six wins in an 82-game season equates to 7.3% of Toronto's wins, so last week's 5% market valuation of Matthews is close.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET Mar. 12 PIT@OTT 50.8/49.2 PIT +107/OTT +114 NYR@CAR 34.4/65.6 NYR +229/CAR -182 DET@BUF 36.8/63.2 DET +205/BUF -164 CBJ@MTL 46.6/53.4 CBJ +135/MTL -110 SJS@PHI 32.5/67.5 SJS +251/PHI -199 FLA@DAL 43.0/57.0 FLA +156/DAL -127 ARI@MIN 34.6/65.4 ARI +227/MIN -181 ANA@CHI 45.1/54.9 ANA +143/CHI -117 COL@CGY 53.0/47.0 COL -108/CGY +132 VGK@SEA 47.1/52.9 VGK +132/SEA -108 Mar. 13 LAK@STL 59.9/40.1 LAK -143/STL +177 NSH@WPG 43.8/56.2 NSH +151/WPG -123 WSH@EDM 29.1/70.9 WSH +298/EDM -232 COL@VAN 56.0/44.0 COL -122/VAN +150 Mar. 14 SJS@PIT 19.6/80.4 SJS +542/PIT -386 OTT@CBJ 57.5/42.5 OTT -130/CBJ +160 NYI@BUF 45.3/54.7 NYI +142/BUF -116 FLA@CAR 38.6/61.4 FLA +189/CAR -153 NYR@TB 49.8/50.2 NYR +111/TB +110 BOS@MTL 62.5/37.5 BOS -160/MTL +199 ARI@DET 46.0/54.0 ARI +138/DET -113 TOR@PHI 62.8/37.2 TOR -161/PHI +201 NJD@DAL 41.2/58.8 NJD +169/DAL -137 ANA@MIN 28.3/71.7 ANA +311/MIN -241 VGK@CGY 44.8/55.2 VGK +145/CGY -118 WSH@SEA 35.5/64.5 WSH +218/SEA -174

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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