Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
As hockey fans, the future excites us. Which talented prospect will your favorite team draft this June to save the franchise? Which trade deadline rental could be the missing piece for a Cup contender? Who is the perfect free agent to restore a team’s hopes next season?
And on a deeper level: Just how special could my favorite player be when he hangs up his skates?
Today, we’re forecasting the future totals of the NHL’s best scorers — and trust me, it’s a lot of fun.
We’re going to use three of the game’s brightest stars to illustrate: projected points featuring Connor McDavid; projected goals with Auston Matthews; and projected points by defensemen via Quinn Hughes.
Of course, projections are only a best guess based on what we know today. Whether from injuries, trades, coaching changes, shifts in organizational direction, or evolution in scoring trends, a player’s output can pivot fast. To run the projections, we’ll leverage an approach developed by baseball statistician Bill James — which projects both career totals and the likelihood of reaching any milestone. I’ve recalibrated the tool for hockey, with the impact of a faster, more violent sport typically leading to sharper aging curves.
With all the advancements in player valuations — both through data and scouting — points still dominate hockey conversations. Whether a shorthanded tally, overtime laser or an accidental secondary assist on an empty netter to make it 5-2, points remain king to most fans. And in 100-plus years of NHL hockey, few have ever banked points like McDavid.
The thought of how high into the stratosphere McDavid might climb one day is a mouthwatering topic. The projection says his most likely output is… 1,923 points. That gives him even odds of catching Jaromir Jagr (1,921) for second all-time. Jagr famously played NHL games at age 45, which for McDavid would be an unfathomable 18 seasons from now.
Equally impressive are his odds at 1,800 points at 65%. Only four players — Gretzky, Jagr, Messier, and Howe — reached 1,800 and all but Gretzky needed at least 21 seasons to hit the mark. But perhaps the most faint-inducing nugget in the projection? The 0.12% chance (that’s 1-in-830) of reaching Gretzky’s unbreakable mark from an unrecognizable hockey universe. That’s right, it’s not zero.
The leaderboard above highlights the top 20 active players that project to score the most career points. To no one’s surprise, McDavid is #1. What is perhaps a surprise is that despite a prime in a more favorable scoring era, he’s projected only 102 points ahead of Crosby. It speaks to how important it is with projections to have actually played the games versus hoping to be healthy enough to continue at a high level. It’s easy to forget that Crosby faced the horror of early retirement at 24 years old.
While Crosby (1,567) and Ovechkin (1,534) are the only active members of the 1,500-point club, McDavid, MacKinnon, and Draisaitl are the favorites to join them one day in what is currently an exclusive 16-man fraternity. Kane, Malkin, and Stamkos — each in their mid-30s and into decline — face long odds of reaching 1,500, their prime years in a low-offense NHL understating their brilliance.
A 784-goal career projection for Matthews leaps off the page. Reminder that the current leaderboard looks like this: 1. Gretzky (894); 2. Ovechkin (840); 3. Howe (801); 4. Jagr (766). The lofty forecast makes perfect sense, though. If anyone is going to pile up historical goal totals, it’s a 26-year-old gunning for a 70-goal season who has scored the most career goals at his age since Mario Lemieux in 1992.
Matthews’ projection gives him a healthy 59% chance at 750, which would be fifth-best. He’s at 46% to catch Howe for third place, and an intriguing 29% to swipe Gretzky’s goal-scoring crown. Despite the friendly forecast, just last month I called his chances at 894 “extremely low.” Why? A year ago, the Toronto center’s odds were just 15%, meaning the projection relies heavily on his current 70-goal pace.
Regardless of the probability, the fact Matthews has plausible odds at best-ever sniper says a lot about his first eight seasons. With a third Rocket Richard Trophy, he’d join only Gretzky (five) with three or more goal-scoring titles by 26 since expansion.
We have to start with Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky, right? The forecast says he’ll score 908 goals and gives him a 76% chance of the record. But outside of a hot eight-game stretch this year, Ovechkin has scored 10 goals in 54 games — an inconceivable notion in October. That’s with 4:47 of power play time a night, empty net minutes, and a team collectively looking for #8 in red. But let’s get serious, as long as he can lace up his skates, he’ll score 55 more goals, right?
It’s time to talk Pasta — David Pastrnak, that is. Lost in the celebration of the NHL’s big four MVP candidates, Pastrnak continues to thrive. 61 goals last year. On pace for another 50 this year. He’ll be about half way to 700 through his age-27 season, despite some injuries and the pandemic shortening two years. The projection says 600 should be easy and 700 is a coin toss.
Beyond the usual suspects, Sam Reinhart’s Year 10 surge suggests 500 is now in play. And how about the much-maligned Jeff Skinner? Still somehow only 31, he’s at 354 goals and scoring near a 30-goal pace for the third straight year.
Yes, it’s Quinn Hughes and not his rival Cale Makar that gets poster boy status. While Makar has three Norris finalist nods, a Cup ring, a Conn Smythe, and more than double the number of goals (82-39), it’s Hughes that projects higher for career points. Vancouver’s captain is a year younger but shared the same rookie season, and by staying a little healthier to date, forecasts more favorably. With such phenomenal skill sets, this promises to be a long and electric race.
The forecast loves Hughes’ chances at major milestones. Just a dozen defensemen have reached 900 points, yet Hughes has a 70% shot. His full career projection is 1,013. For perspective, Corey Perry has 899 to date. The model even gives Hughes a 4.5% chance at Ray Bourque’s all-time mark of 1,579 points. Naturally, at just 24, Hughes would need to stay healthy and productive for a very long time. So, we’ll have to cool our jets with the Bourque talk.
The salary cap era has produced a deep crop of offensive defensemen. While blueline point milestones don’t have the same panache as those among forwards, 800 points remains a rare feat. Erik Karlsson, a three-time Norris winner and the offensive virtuoso of his generation, only recently became the 18th defender to 800 points. Burns is the only other active member right now. The pair are going to get some company — Hedman, Letang, Josi, Doughty, and Carlson are each a few seasons away with 80% odds or better.
Projections let us pause and imagine the possibilities. Or at least give some perspective on what one day could become reality. Lots can go wrong, too. We know that. There are enough cautionary tales in hockey’s past.
But in the meantime, we can dream of McDavid’s 2,000th point, or Matthews’ 895th goal, or Hughes’ 1,000th point. It’s a lot more fun that way.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com
Originally posted on Daily Faceoff
Published: 8 months ago
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