Originally posted on The Score
An intriguing MVP battle has gotten significantly tighter in recent weeks. A remarkable run earlier in the winter briefly made Auston Matthews a Hart favorite in some circles, but he's come back down to earth since then.
Numerous metrics continue to favor a certain player in Colorado who's led this race for a while despite the Herculean efforts of some other superstars.
Here are our top five candidates now that we're more than three-quarters of the way through this NHL season with less than a month to go until the playoffs.
xGF% = Expected goals for percentage
Pastrnak has been productive since our last edition of these rankings on Feb. 9, notching eight goals and 12 assists in 17 games. But others both on and off this list have been more impactful lately, so he's become a fringe MVP candidate despite having a commendable season.
The Boston Bruins winger sits in the top five in the NHL in goals and points on the campaign, both in all situations and at even strength. He's posted 14 more goals, 21 more assists, and 36 more points than his closest teammates. These disparities represent the strongest argument in his favor.
Pastrnak's underlying numbers have been favorable both for the season as a whole and more recently. He boasts a 56.25 xGF% since our last edition, along with expected goals for percentages around 52% in both timeframes. The fact that he's slid further down these rankings is mostly due to his competition.
It's time to acknowledge two things: Matthews belongs among the most worthy Hart contenders, but he's not one of the front-runners. The Toronto Maple Leafs sniper is on pace for 70 goals (rounding up from 69.6) this season, and he was the MVP with "only" 60 tallies in 2021-22. Fast-forward two years and Matthews now leads the "Rocket" Richard Trophy race by nine.
The American center has been scoring at a white-hot pace for much of the campaign. From Jan. 16 through Feb. 29, he lit the lamp 20 times in 18 games while adding 10 assists before managing only two goals and two assists in his last six contests. Matthews' two-way game has been stellar, though. He ranks fourth in the NHL in standings points above replacement, wins above replacement, and goals above replacement for the season. So it's not just the goal-scoring rate that's inserted him into the Hart conversation.
Matthews has also put the Leafs on his back in 2023-24, scoring 20 more goals than William Nylander, who sits second on the squad. Matthews has buried 40 of his goals at even strength, which leads the league. However, he's only registered about half as many assists as club leaders Nylander and Mitch Marner, who have 51 apiece. It's hard to justify a Hart case for someone who doesn't even lead his team in points, but he's done enough at both ends of the ice to be a contender.
Kucherov racked up another five points Thursday night, and it was the sixth time this season he's collected at least four in a game. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward is tied for second in the league in assists and occupies that spot outright in the points race. He also sits third in even-strength points in 2023-24.
The Russian has 19 more assists and an impressive 39 more points than any other Lightning skater on the campaign but only has three more goals. To Kucherov's credit, he's tied for sixth in the NHL in SPAR, he's tied for seventh in WAR, and he ranks seventh in GAR.
The Bolts haven't been dominant lately, but Kucherov keeps producing in bunches. If the MVP race was exclusively about underlying numbers, Matthews might have the edge over Kucherov for this spot. He ranks higher than the Lightning catalyst in all the key metrics, particularly since our last edition. But we all know it's about more than that, and the majority of Hart voters will likely (and understandably) prioritize counting stats - points specifically - over analytics.
McDavid remains a serious candidate due to his elite play, but he's still not doing quite enough to lead the race. The Edmonton Oilers superstar tops all NHL skaters in assists and points since our last edition by wide margins (14 and eight, respectively), though he's scored only four times in those 18 games. McDavid leads all NHL skaters in helpers on the season, ranks third in the Art Ross Trophy race, and sits second in even-strength points despite having played fewer games than his rivals.
In addition to his offensive exploits, McDavid's underlying figures have been almost supernatural. Only teammate Evan Bouchard has a better five-on-five xGF% (62.73) among NHL skaters who've logged at least 1,000 minutes in those situations in 2023-24, and McDavid's SCF% on the season is also north of 60 (61.79). He's up over 60% in both categories since our last edition, too.
McDavid ranks second in SPAR, WAR, and GAR behind only our No. 1 contender. The Oilers captain and three-time MVP won't come anywhere close in 2023-24 to matching the 64 goals and 153 points he piled up last season. But he impacts the game in myriad ways, and that's reflected in statistics across the board.
MacKinnon has come very close to claiming the Hart several times, but it's becoming more and more clear that this is his year. The Colorado Avalanche dynamo is pacing the league in points - both in all situations and at even strength - but his status as the front-runner goes far beyond that.
The Nova Scotian center isn't just leading the three "above replacement" categories; he's doing so handily. Simply put, he has been by far the best all-around skater in the NHL this season. Need more evidence?
Nathan MacKinnon is so good at hockey. pic.twitter.com/mM9AKvxGpQ
— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) March 15, 2024
The 28-year-old is doing the heavy lifting for the Avalanche with eight more goals, 17 more assists, and 25 more points than any other Colorado skater. That's pretty hard to do on a team that includes Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.
MacKinnon is also logging more ice time than any of his counterparts on this list, and he trails only Rantanen among all NHL forwards in ATOI. Voters will be hard-pressed to conjure up a reason not to hand MacKinnon the hardware at this point, and an MVP win would be well deserved for the two-time runner-up and three-time finalist.
(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)
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Originally posted on The Score
Published: 8 months ago
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