Pastrnak to feast on struggling Senators

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We have an exciting 13-game slate ahead of us on Tuesday night. Let's waste no time getting to a few of my favorite player props.

David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots

Pastrnak has been unusually quiet at home, going over his total in just two of the past 10 games. That stems from a string of opponents that excel defensively or lean toward low-event hockey.

Against the Lightning, Kings, Stars, Oilers, and Flyers, Pastrnak struggled to generate volume.

That shouldn't be an issue against the Senators. They rank 28th in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games and are not good on the penalty kill, where they'll have to deal with one of the league's most feared snipers in Pastrnak.

Even when accounting for Pastrnak's recent rut in terms of shooting the puck, he's still averaging 4.9 shots on 9.5 attempts when playing in Boston this season. Those are remarkably strong numbers.

Look for him to get back on track in an advantageous matchup against the Senators.

Odds: +107 (playable to -125)

Alex Nylander: Over 2.5 shots

Nylander has been the biggest beneficiary of the Blue Jackets trading Jack Roslovic on deadline day. He has logged no fewer than 16 minutes in five games since that point while playing a prominent role on the top line and power play.

He's taking full advantage of his ice time, averaging 4.2 shots on goal per game while going over his total in four of five. The lone exception came against a stingy Jets team in a contest where Nylander still had two shots with more than a period to finish the job.

He should be able to get right back on the horse against the Red Wings. They have stumbled lately and are giving up tons of shots at even strength and while killing penalties. The Red Wings have also taken a lot of penalties, which greatly benefits opposing shooters.

That is important to note as Nylander has led the Blue Jackets in power-play shots and chances since deadline day.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Adrian Kempe: Over 3.5 shots

Kempe is piling up the shots. He has gone over his total in seven of the past 10 contests, averaging a healthy 4.5 shots per game in that span.

Although he let us down the last time he faced the Blackhawks, the process was strong. He attempted seven shots but had four blocked by defenders. If a couple of those had made their way through, he would've cashed the over once again.

The Kings also won the game in the first period, going up 4-0 within 14 minutes. They sat on a lead for 57 minutes and a multi-goal lead for 55, and Kempe still generated more than enough attempts to get there.

The Blackhawks give up a ton of shots and, with any luck, the game will be competitive for more than five minutes. That should result in more ice time for Kempe when the Kings are pushing for offense, raising the floor and ceiling for shooting the puck.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.