Avalanche to cool off Blues on Tuesday night

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We finished last week very strongly with our best bets, going 2-0 back-to-back nights to end on a high.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with two more plays for a busy Tuesday night in the NHL.

Maple Leafs (-135) @ Flyers (+115)

The Flyers are a great story this season, but their game has fallen off a cliff, especially following the trade deadline.

They own a 1-3 record since deadline day, with their lone victory coming against the Sharks. It's not just that the Flyers have lost - it's how they've done so.

We haven't seen the stingy defense that's been their calling card all season. They've only controlled 31% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five while being outscored 14-5 since the deadline, and Samuel Ersson hasn't shown the ability to mask their mistakes.

That's led to problems against quality competition. Philadelphia gave up seven goals to the Lightning, six to the Bruins, and six to these same Maple Leafs.

Sean Couturier hasn't played well as of late, but he owns some of the best defensive metrics on the team. The Flyers have made him a healthy scratch, which takes out one of the players best equipped to slow down some of Toronto's best weapons.

I expect Philadelphia to put up a better fight than last time, but given the team's defense struggles, I think the more talented Maple Leafs are more likely to come out on top once again.

Bet: Maple Leafs (-135)

Avalanche (-210) @ Blues (+175)

The Avs are firing on all cylinders. They've won six straight games and eight of their last 10. All the numbers under the hood suggest it's no fluke.

Despite facing the Maple Leafs, Stars, Predators, Canucks, and Oilers during a rather difficult string of games, Colorado has controlled 55% of the expected goals at five-on-five over its last 10 contests. That's a top-five rate.

The Avs are scoring at will, the goaltending has been excellent, and Valeri Nichushkin is healthy again. It's hard to overstate his importance to the team.

Colorado is 30-11-3 with Nichushkin in the lineup and 13-9-2 without him. His ability to score goals, create chances, and defend makes the Avalanche much harder to play against.

Although the Blues have won four straight, they continue to post concerning defensive metrics.

Only three teams have conceded Grade A chances at a higher rate than St. Louis over the last four games. That's been masked by .954 goaltending, which isn't sustainable.

This high-powered Avalanche team will give a wobbly Blues defense all it can handle and then some. If Jordan Binnington isn't astronomically good, Colorado should be able to grab another win within 60 minutes.

Bet: Avalanche in regulation (-130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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