'Ice Insanity' Part 2: Who advances out of NHL's Sweet 16?

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On Monday, we introduced our made-up March Madness-style tournament for the NHL, "Ice Insanity." Beyond bringing levity at a point in the season that could use some, the idea is to see how NHL teams are faring in categories we use to handicap games.

In Round 1, we advanced the hotter team. Using even-strength expected goals share (xG%) from the All-Star break onwards, we saw that there may be a handful of upsets and a few near-shockers, indicating that some playoff teams need to pick up their play if they don't want to be victimized when the real thing starts in late April.

Coming in hot is cool and all, but who has the staying power to make the Elite Eight? We'll pull back, looking at a full season of even-strength play, knowing we want to back quality squads - not streaky ones - when the going gets tough.

Here's how the bracket breaks for Round 2, using teams' expected goals percentage at even strength (ES xG%) since the start of the season (as of March 20):

We have a handful of bracket-breakers. The Avalanche have the better record, but the Predators' extended hot streak has surprisingly made them the slightly better team this season when it comes to creating expected goals at even strength (171-165). The Rangers survived the fake first round with a low xG% because they were facing the Blackhawks, but that won't work against the Wild, who've been very good since a late November coaching change.

It seems unfair that the Oilers and Stars face each other this early, while Senators-Flames is like that occasional No. 12 versus No. 13 second-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament.

From here, we'll move away from who's driving play and advance teams whose goaltenders are more likely to save their team enough goals to send them to the Final Four.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET Mar. 22 CAR@WSH 57.7/42.3 CAR -131/WSH +161 PIT@DAL 41.3/58.7 PIT +168/DAL -136 CBJ@COL 29.3/70.7 CBJ +296/COL -230 SEA@ARI 45.9/54.1 SEA +139/ARI -113 Mar. 23 BOS@PHI 55.2/44.8 BOS -118/PHI +145 WPG@NYI 48.6/51.4 WPG +117/NYI +105 STL@MIN 41.2/58.8 STL +169/MIN -137 DET@NSH 47.3/52.7 DET +131/NSH -107 EDM@TOR 43.2/56.8 EDM +155/TOR -126 OTT@NJD 41.5/58.5 OTT +167/NJD -153 FLA@NYR 38.5/61.5 FLA +190/NYR -153 CGY@VAN 46.0/54.0 CGY +138/VAN -113 CHI@SJS 58.2/41.8 CHI -134/SJS +165 TB@LAK 46.2/53.8 TB +137/LAK -112 CBJ@VGK 23.9/76.1 CBJ +402/VGK -301 Mar. 24 WPG@WSH 44.4/55.6 WPG +148/WSH -120 PIT@COL 41.4/55.6 PIT +168/COL -136 NJD@NYI 50.6/49.4 NJD +108/NYI +113 TOR@CAR 43.7/56.3 TOR +152/CAR -124 EDM@OTT 54.8/45.2 EDM -116/OTT +143 FLA@PHI 54.7/45.3 FLA -116/PHI +142 DAL@ARI 61.3/38.7 DAL -152/ARI +188 TB@ANA 55.6/44.4 TB -120/ANA +147 BUF@CGY 54.8/45.2 BUF -117/CGY +143 MTL@SEA 38.5/61.5 MTL +190/SEA -153

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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