Matthews to capitalize at home vs. Washington

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It was another winning night on the ice. Jakob Chychrun soared over his shot total in the first period, while the Senators held Jeff Skinner off the scoresheet. Anthony Duclair didn't get a point on any of the Lightning's three goals, but it was still a profitable 2-1 evening.

We'll look to build on it with three more plays for a busy Thursday card.

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

Matthews has a bug and is considered a game-time decision, according to head coach Sheldon Keefe. However, I expect Matthews to play, as Mitch Marner, who's out tonight, practiced in Matthews' spot on the top line alongside Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. You can wait closer to puck drop, but assuming Matthews is cleared, I quite like his chances of piling up the shots.

Matthews generally has an elite winger riding shotgun, with either Marner or William Nylander playing the right side the majority of the time. Surprisingly, however, it's Domi who brings out the best in Matthews and his ability to generate shots at the highest volume.

Matthews averages 17.90 shots and 28.13 attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play alongside Domi. Meanwhile, he generates 10.89 shots and 23.17 attempts with Nylander and produces 11.33 shots and 20.39 attempts with Marner.

That's not to say Matthews playing with Domi is better for him or the Maple Leafs. It is, however, better for prop bettors eyeing high-end shot rates. Matthews takes on a bigger piece of the pie when playing with Domi, who quietly ranks in the top five in five-on-five assists this season.

Playing with Domi is a big plus for Matthews and his shot rates, and so is a date with the Capitals, who have conceded more shots per game to centers than any other team over the last 10.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Owen Tippett: Over 3.5 shots

Tippett's shot output recently dropped off, but that coincided with a difficult stretch of opponents. His last seven games came against the Maple Leafs (twice), Bruins (twice), Hurricanes, Rangers, and Panthers. It's no coincidence he only managed to go over his total in two of them.

However, Tippett feasts on the weak, getting the job done nearly every time he faces a team outside of the playoffs.

Take the last couple of months, for example. Tippett piled up eight shots against the Sharks, five against the Blues, five against the Blackhawks, 10 against the Devils, and four against the Coyotes.

It's also worth noting he piled up five shots on nine attempts the last time he faced the Canadiens.

They are not a good defensive team at five-on-five and take plenty of penalties. Although Tippett is not on the top power play right now, the Flyers tend to distribute ice time between their two units more evenly than most teams.

He's a prime candidate to exploit the Canadiens' defensive shortcomings en route to a very active shooting performance.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Kane is in the midst of a pretty ugly slump. Luckily for him, a date with the Kings is just what the doctor ordered.

He has torched the Kings over the years, averaging 3.9 shots on goal while going over the number in 17 of the past 20 head-to-head matchups. That's a ridiculous 85% hit rate.

Also working in Kane's favor are home ice and ideal linemates for shot generation.

Kane has registered at least three shots in 65% of his games in Edmonton this season.

He is projected to skate on the third line with Corey Perry and Ryan McLeod. Kane averages more shot attempts per 60 with Perry than anybody else on the Oilers' roster. He also generates shots on target at a higher clip with McLeod than he does when centered by some guy named Connor McDavid.

With home ice, pass-first linemates, and a matchup in which Kane has excelled countless times, he is worth backing on Thursday night.

Odds: -115 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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