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NHL betting guide: How does the market power rank all 32 teams?

NHL betting guide: How does the market power rank all 32 teams?

Originally posted on The Score

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Don't look now, but it's April.

Even though teams still have more than a handful of games left, we haven't checked in on the betting market's power ratings since the All-Star break. What do those who put their money where their mouth is think of each team?

As a reminder, moneylines are a function of win probability, so each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Wild, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.

Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines. Luckily, at the moment, there are very few player injuries throughout the NHL drastically affecting a team's rating.

NHL betting market power ratings

We included teams' preseason market rating - based on their regular-season points total before the season started - and our estimated rating at the All-Star break (teams with an asterisk are currently in playoff position).

TEAM CURRENT (%) ASB (%) PRESEASON (%) Oilers* +25 +20 +16 Hurricanes* +25 +17.5 +17.5 Bruins* +20 +17.5 +9.5 Panthers* +20 +15 +8 Stars* +20 +15 +15 Avalanche* +20 +10 +16.5 Kings* +20 +10 +10 Golden Knights* +15 +15 +12 Canucks* +15 +10 -2.5 Rangers* +15 +10 +11.5 Devils +10 +17.5 +17.5 Jets* +10 +12.5 0 Maple Leafs* +10 +10 +16.5 Lightning* +10 +2.5 +4.5 Predators* +5 0 -5 Wild 0 0 +5.5 Penguins -5 +10 +6.7 Sabres -5 0 +1.2 Islanders -5 -3 +1.2 Flyers* -5 -5 -17.5 Blues -5 -15 -7.5 Flames -10 -3 +3 Kraken -10 -5 +1.5 Senators -10 -7.5 0 Capitals* -10 -10 -7 Red Wings -10 -15 -6.5 Coyotes -20 -12.5 -16.5 Canadiens -25 -27.5 -21 Blue Jackets -30 -25 -20 Ducks -35 -32.5 -26 Blackhawks -40 -25 -22.5 Sharks -45 -40 -27

Conceptually, the standings measure what happened yesterday, while market ratings measure what'll happen tomorrow.

The market's still giving the Devils credit as a good team but has backtracked on the Penguins relative to All-Star break expectations. The Flyers and Capitals are currently taking what the market thinks should have been playoff spots for New Jersey and Pittsburgh.

The Predators' rating rose as high as 10% above an average team during their 18-game points streak, but two losses have caused a dip.

There are two types of market scenarios:

  1. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market changes its rating along the way. You'll need to be lucky to profit during the streak since the team's price is continuously fair.
  2. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market doesn't move. In this scenario, you're likely getting good value betting on/against the team during its streak.

As games pile up, perception snowballs and teams further separate from top to bottom. For example, a 45% gap between the Hurricanes and Sharks - the NHL's best and worst teams - existed before the season and it's up to 70% today.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

  • True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
  • True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
  • True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET Apr. 1 DET@TB 36.5/63.5 DET +208/TB -167 NYI@PHI 52.7/47.3 NYI -107/PHI +131 COL@CBJ 69.7/30.3 COL -219/CBJ +280 PIT@NYR 45.2/54.8 PIT +143/NYR -117 FLA@TOR 48.1/51.9 FLA +119/TOR +103 EDM@ATL 68.8/31.2 EDM -210/STL +267 LAK@WPG 53.5/46.5 LAK -111/WPG +135 SEA@SJS 65.7/34.3 SEA -183/SJS +230 Apr. 2 FLA@MTL 64.4/35.6 FLA -173/MTL +217 WSH@BUF 41.3/58.7 WSH +168/BUF-136 PIT@NJD 39.1/60.9 PIT +185/NJD -149 CHI@NYI 30.3/69.7 CHI +281/NYI -220 OTT@MIN 40.7/59.3 OTT +172/MIN -140 BOS@NSH 51.9/48.1 BOS -103/NSH +127 ANA@CGY 25.9/74.1 ANA +357/CGY -272 VAN@VGK 41.3/58.7 VAN +168/VGK -136 Apr. 3 TB@TOR 40.1/59.9 TB +177/TOR -143 NJD@NYR 42.0/58.0 NJD +163/NYR -132 EDM@DAL 48.5/51.5 EDM +117/DAL +104 SEA@LAK 36.2/63.8 SEA +210/LAK -169 Apr. 4 NYI@CBJ 57.5/42.5 NYI -130/CBJ +160 TB@MTL 56.4/43.6 TB -124/MTL +153 BOS@CAR 36.8/63.2 BOS +205/CAR -164 FLA@OTT 57.0/43.0 FLA -127/OTT +156 PIT@WSH 56.3/43.7 PIT -124/WSH +152 COL@MIN 52.6/47.4 COL -107/MIN +130 STL@NSH 38.0/62.0 STL +194/NSH -157 CGY@WPG 47.0/53.0 CGY +132/WPG -108 LAK@SJS 70.5/29.5 LAK -228/SJS +292

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Originally posted on The Score

Published: 3 weeks ago

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