Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Golden Knights and Stars vie for series lead

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Two more teams were shown the door Tuesday. The Avalanche are the first Western Conference club to advance, and our first second-round series is set, with the Hurricanes taking on the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs and Predators assured the hockey world there won't be a dark night on the NHL schedule this week.

Wednesday features the league's best chance for a seven-game series. The home team is still looking for its first victory in the Golden Knights-Stars matchup, while a Stanley Cup contender seems ready to join the list of squads for Round 2.

Game 5: Golden Knights (+135) @ Stars (-155)

The most fascinating series of the first round can be broken down as follows:

• Game 1: Jake Oettinger (minus-2.2 goals saved above expected) was terrible in an otherwise close game. Stars lose 4-3.
• Game 3: Stars dominate even strength (ES), 23-4 high-danger chances (HDC). The Stars win in overtime 3-2.

Games 2 and 4 were nearly identical to each other.

ES xG% ES HDC HDC GOALS Game 2 DAL 2.59-1.45 (64%) DAL 12-9 0-2 Game 4 DAL 3.37-2.82 (54%) DAL 12-10 1-2

The last column is the difference-maker. Vegas scored on two high-danger chances in Game 2, but Dallas didn't and lost a contest that was tied late in the second period. However, the Stars converted once in Game 4 and won a matchup also tied late in the second period.

Games 2 and 4 were more competitive, but Dallas drove the play at a 65% rate across those matchups. That's particularly notable since two of the regular season's least penalized teams are rarely putting each other on the power play in this series.

If you equate play-driving percentage to a moneyline, the Stars' 65% rate would be just shy of -200. While we'll never see Game 1's price of -130 again, -155 is still a valuable bet on Dallas snapping the road team's streak.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-155)

Game 5: Kings (+165) @ Oilers (-195)

Who's to blame for Game 4's rare under in a Kings-Oilers playoff matchup?

That's a question worth asking after a streak of three straight overs to start the series was snapped with Sunday's 1-0 Oilers win. It's especially worth considering since Edmonton and L.A. have combined for six-plus goals in 10 of the last 13 playoff games between them.

Strangely, given that the Kings were shut out, the blame rests on the Oilers for a low-scoring Game 4. Edmonton mustered just four even-strength high-danger chances. And while the team's lone goal was on the power play, it drew just one opportunity on the man advantage.

Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner was also at fault. With 2.6 GSAx, Skinner backstopped Edmonton in a game in which Los Angeles should win 76% of the time. It was a well-timed outlier performance by Skinner, given that he posted a minus-2.15 GSAx over the first three contests. What version of him should we expect in Game 5?

David Rittich was an improvement from Cam Talbot (minus-3.08 GSAx in the series) for the Kings but was still replacement-level in Game 4 (minus-0.06). Going forward, we should expect average goaltending for both sides.

If the Oilers get back to their customary offensive production, more penalties will get called than the two in Game 4, and the Kings should finally score their first power-play goal in the series. This matchup should return to its offensive ways, especially if Edmonton, as expected, has a lead late and the Kings are compelled to pull the goalie earlier than usual.

Best bet: Over 6.5 (+105)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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